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Three Prominent Clinical Laboratory Leaders Make the Same Prediction: COVID-19 Testing Will Be Significant Through 2020 and Throughout 2021

CEOs of NorDx Laboratories, Sonora Quest Laboratories, and HealthPartners/Park Nicollet Laboratories expect demand for SARS-CoV-2 tests to only increase in coming months

AUSTIN, TEXAS—For clinical laboratories and anatomic pathology groups in the United States, the single most urgent question is this: how long will the need for substantial volumes of COVID-19 testing continue? Last Wednesday, that question was answered in a most definitive way by CEOs of three nationally-prominent clinical laboratory organizations during a general session of the virtual Executive War College on Clinical Laboratory and Pathology Management.

The short answer is that large volumes of COVID-19 testing will be needed for the remaining weeks of 2020 and substantial COVID-19 testing will occur throughout 2021 and even into 2022. This has major implications for all clinical laboratories in the United States as they plan budgets for 2021 and attempt to manage their supply chain in coming weeks. The additional challenge in coming months is the surge in respiratory virus testing that is typical of an average influenza season.

The title of this information-filled general session was “Coming Next to Clinical Laboratory and Pathology: A Robust Panel Discussion of How Labs Can Prosper Clinically and Financially Going Forward.” Chair and Moderator for the panel was Robert L. Michel, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of The Dark Report and Dark Daily.

Panel is David Dexter and Stan Schofield and Rick L. Panning

The panelists were:

Each panelist was asked how his parent health system and clinical laboratory was preparing to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic through the end of 2020 and into 2021.

First to answer was Panning, whose laboratory serves the Minneapolis-Saint Paul market.

A distinguishing feature of healthcare in the Twin Cities is that it is at the forefront of operational and clinical integration. Competition among health networks is intense and consumer-focused services are essential if a hospital or physician office is to retain its patients and expand market share.

Panning first explained how the pandemic is intensifying in Minnesota. “Our state has been on a two-week path of rising COVID-19 case numbers,” he said. “That rise is mirrored by increased hospitalizations for COVID-19 and ICU bed utilization is going up dramatically. The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients has doubled during this time and Minnesota is surrounded by states that are even in worse shape than us.”

These trends are matched by the outpatient/outreach experience. “We are also seeing more patients use virtual visits to our clinics, compared to recent months,” noted Panning. “About 35% of clinical visits are virtual because people do not want to physically go into a clinic or doctor’s office.

“Given these recent developments, we’ve had to expand our network of specimen collection sites because of social distancing requirements,” explained Panning. “Each patient collection requires more space, along with more time to clean and sterilize that space before it can be used for the next patient. Our lab and our parent health system are focused on what we call crisis standards of care.

“For all these reasons, our planning points to an ongoing demand for COVID-19 testing,” he added. “Influenza season is arriving, and the pandemic is accelerating. Given that evidence, and the guidance from state and federal officials, we expect our clinical laboratory will be providing significant numbers of COVID-19 tests for the balance of this year and probably far into 2021.”

 COVID-19 Vaccine Could Increase Antibody and Rapid Molecular Testing

Arizona is seeing comparable increases in new daily COVID-19 cases. “There’s been a strong uptick that coincides with the governor’s decision to loosen restrictions that allowed bars and exercise clubs to open,” stated Dexter. “We’ve gone from a 3.8% positivity rate up to 7% as of last night. By the end of this week, we could be a 10% positivity rate.”

Looking at the balance of 2020 and into 2021, Dexter said, “Our lab is in the midst of budget planning. We are budgeting to support an increase in COVID-19 PCR testing in both November and December. Arizona state officials believe that COVID-19 cases will peak at the end of January and we’ll start seeing the downside in February of 2021.”

The possible availability of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is another factor in planning at Dexter’s clinical laboratory. “If such a vaccine becomes available, we think there will be a significant increase in antibody testing, probably starting in second quarter and continuing for the balance of 2021. There will also be a need for rapid COVID-19 molecular tests. Today, such tests are simply unavailable. Because of supply chain difficulties, we predict that they won’t be available in sufficient quantities until probably late 2021.”

COVID-19 Testing Supply Shortages Predicted as Demand Increases

At NorDx Laboratories in Portland, Maine, the expectation is that the COVID-19 pandemic will continue even into 2022. “Our team believes that people will be wearing masks for 18 more months and that COVID-19 testing with influenza is going to be the big demand this winter,” observed Schofield. “The demand for both COVID-19 and influenza testing will press all of us up against the wall because there are not enough reagents, plastics, and plates to handle the demand that we see building even now. 

“Our hospitals are already preparing for a second surge of COVID-19 cases,” he said.

COVID-19 patients will be concentrated in only three or four hospitals. The other hospitals will handle routine work. Administration does not want to have COVID-19 patients spread out over 12 or 14 hospitals, as happened last March and April.

“Administration of the health system and our clinical laboratory think that the COVID-19 test volume and demand for these tests will be tough on our lab for another 12 months. This will be particularly true for COVID-19 molecular tests.”

As described above, the CEOs of these three major clinical laboratories believe that the demand for COVID-19 testing will continue well into 2021, and possibly also into 2022. A recording of the full session was captured by the virtual Executive War College and, as a public service to the medical laboratory and pathology profession, access to this recording will be provided to any lab professional who contacts info@darkreport.com and provides their email address, name, title, and organization.

Executive War College Closing Session

This week’s closing general session of the virtual Executive War College also will deal with the current state of the clinical laboratory industry and bring together three notable lab industry leaders and thinkers. The session, titled “What Comes Next in Healthcare and Laboratory Medicine: Essential Insights to Position Your Clinical Lab and Pathology Group for Clinical and Financial Success, Whether COVID or No COVID,” takes place Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020, from 2:00 PM to 3:00 PM Eastern.

Your presenters will be:

Given the importance of sound strategic planning for all clinical laboratories and pathology groups during their fall budget process, the virtual Executive War College is opening this session to all professionals in laboratory medicine, in vitro diagnostics, and lab informatics.

To register for access, visit: https://dark.regfox.com/executive-war-college-2020. Enter the code: COURTESYCAPTDR. Next, select “apply code” and complete the registration.

—Michael McBride

Related Information:

Coming Next to Clinical Laboratory and Pathology: A Robust Discussion of How Labs Can Prosper Clinically and Financially Going Forward

Expert Panel—What Comes Next in Healthcare and Laboratory Medicine: Essential Insights to Position your Clinical Lab and Pathology Group for Clinical and Financial Success, COVID or No COVID

Blackstone Buys Stake in Ancestry for $4.7 Billion, While Interest in Direct-to-Consumer Genealogy Genetic Tests May Be Fading Among Consumers

Though gene sequencing is touted as a key component of precision medicine, the medical value of direct-to-consumer testing has yet to show up in improved health outcomes, nor have clinical laboratories benefitted

In a recent example that the market for genetic genealogy testing may have peaked and the days of spectacular growth in the number of direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic test orders and revenue is over, private-equity firm Blackstone—in a $4.7 billion deal—announced it will acquire a majority stake in Ancestry, which also does some clinical laboratory genetic testing as well.

Blackstone (NYSE:BX) acquired Ancestry of Lehi, Utah, one of the two largest genealogy testing companies (the other being 23andMe of Sunnyvale, Calif.), from a group of equity holders led by investment firms Silver Lake, GIC, Spectrum Equity, and Permira, noted a press release. GIC will retain a “significant minority stake” in Ancestry.

“We are very excited to partner with Ancestry and its management team. We believe Ancestry has significant runway for further growth as people of all ages and backgrounds become increasingly interested in learning more about their family histories and themselves,” David Kestnbaum, a Senior Managing Director at Blackstone, said in the press release. “We look forward to investing behind further data, functionality, and product development across Ancestry’s market leading platform to continue to provide a differentiated service.”

Is Genetic Testing for Genealogy Still a Growth Industry?

Ancestry is the global leader in digital family history services, operating in more than 30 countries with more than three million paying subscribers across its Ancestry online properties and more than $1 billion in annual revenue.

However, some experts say the road ahead may not be smooth for Ancestry or its major competitor, 23andMe.

“The business landscape fell off a cliff last year,” Laura Hercher, Director of Human Genetics Research at Sarah Lawrence College in New York, told STAT. “Fads pass,” she added.

Hercher points out that Ancestry has “this enormous database, which inherently has a lot of value hidden in it—potential energy. But they have not figured out how to get that information out in the way 23andMe has.”

23andMe’s pivot into medical research gained steam in 2018 when pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE:GSK) purchased a $300 million stake in the company with the aim of using 23andMe’s resources to develop new medicines. That collaboration began bearing fruit earlier this year when GlaxoSmithKline started human trials of the first medicine (a cancer drug) to emerge from the partnership, STAT reported.

The public’s declining interest in at-home genealogy, however, has caused both companies to reduce staffing. 23andMe began the year by laying off about 100 employees—an estimated 14% of its workers—and Ancestry followed suit in February, letting go a similar number of employees, representing roughly 6% of its workforce.

According to MIT Technology Review, direct-to-consumer genetic genealogy testing reached its zenith in 2018 when consumers purchased as many DNA tests in one year as they had in all previous years combined, propelling total sales from Ancestry, 21andMe, and other DTC gene testing companies to roughly $26 million.

Mr. Greg Yap

In 2019, CNBC reported that, market-wide, roughly 30 million tests had been sold across the globe. However, in recent years, sales have fallen short of expectations as the number of people willing to pay $99 to learn about their ancestry has dwindled. “I suspect those that are curious about this information are thinning out and there’s less people to go around to grow,” Greg Yap (above), Partner at Menlo Ventures, told CNBC. “I think there’s a broader issue, which is that the ultimate medical value is still really unproven,” Yap added. “There’s lots of research being done, but value for mass market consumer isn’t there yet, so it keeps a ceiling on the size of that market.” (Photo copyright: VentureBeat.)

Privacy Still a Concern

Ancestry has begun to insert itself into the genetic testing healthcare arena. In a press release, the company announced the launch of AncestryHealth, a $179 DNA testing kit that uses next generation sequencing (aka, high-throughput or massive parallel sequencing), aimed at providing adult consumers information on their inherited health risks.

However, as MedCity News points out, the sale to Blackstone has increased privacy concerns around the direct-to-consumer DNA testing market. Ancestry’s consumer privacy and data protections remain unchanged under the new ownership, but Alan Butler, Interim Executive Director at Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC), told MedCity News, “This is one example of a very troubling trend. It’s something regulatory agencies are not up to date to deal with. It’s one of the reasons we need comprehensive privacy law in the US.”

As genealogy companies such as 23andMe and Ancestry shift their focus from providing genetic histories to improving consumers’ health through genetic testing, clinical laboratories should be mindful of the logical next step, which is predicted to be genetic tests where the consumer collects the sample at home and the test is used to aid in diagnosing and treating patients.

—Andrea Downing Peck

Related Information:

Blackstone Agrees to Buy Ancestry in $4.7 Billion Deal

Blackstone to Acquire Ancestry, Leading Online Family History Business, for $4.7 Billion

Cancer Drug Is First Potential Therapy to Emerge from 23andMe and GlaxoSmithKline Collaboration

More than 26 Million People Have Taken an At-Home Ancestry Test

Ancestry Launches AncestryHealth Powered by Next Generation Sequencing

Consumer DNA Testing Has Hit a Lull—Here’s How It Could Capture the Next Wave of Users

Blackstone $4.7 Billion Acquisition of Ancestry Raises Privacy Questions

Guidehouse Healthcare Experts Outline Six Ways COVID-19 Pandemic Is Accelerating Healthcare Transformation

Financial losses for hospitals and health systems due to cancelled procedures and coronavirus expenses will lead to changes in healthcare delivery, operations, and clinical laboratory test ordering

COVID-19 is reshaping how people work, shop, and go to school. Is healthcare the next target of the coronavirus-induced transformation? According to two experts, the COVID-19 pandemic is pushing hospitals and health systems toward a “fundamental and likely sustained transformation,” which means clinical laboratories must be prepared to adapt to new provider needs and customer demands.

In “Industry Voices—6 Ways the Pandemic Will Remake Health Systems,” published in Fierce Healthcare, authors David Burik, Partner, and Brian Fisher, Director, at Guidehouse (formerly Navigant Consulting and a “portfolio company of Veritas Capital”), stated that COVID-19 has wreaked havoc with the finances of America’s hospitals and healthcare systems.

Burik and Fisher called attention to the staggering $50 billion-per-month loss for hospitals and health systems that was first revealed in an American Hospital Association (AHA) report published in May. The AHA report estimated a $200 billion loss from March 1, 2020, to June 30, 2020, due to increased COVID-19 expenses and cancelled elective and non-elective surgeries.

Adding to the financial carnage is the expectation that patient volumes will be slow to return. In “Hospitals Forecast Declining Revenues and Elective Procedure Volumes, Telehealth Adoption Struggles Due to COVID-19,” Burik said, “Healthcare has largely been insulated from previous economic disruptions, with capital spending more acutely affected than operations. But this time may be different since the COVID-19 crisis started with a one-time significant impact on operations that is not fully covered by federal funding.

“Providers face a long-term decrease in commercial payment, coupled with a need to boost caregiver and consumer-facing digital engagement, all during the highest unemployment rate the US has seen since the Great Depression,” he continued. “For organizations in certain locations, it may seem like business as usual. For many others, these issues and greater competition will demand more significant, material change.”

A Guidehouse analysis of a Healthcare Financial Management Association (HFMA) survey, suggests one-in-three provider executives expect to end 2020 with revenues at 15% below pre-pandemic levels, while one-in-five of them anticipate a 30% or greater drop in revenues. Government aid, Guidehouse noted, is likely to cover COVID-19-related costs for only 11% of survey respondents.

“The figures illustrate how the virus has hurled American medicine into unparalleled volatility. No one knows how long patients will continue to avoid getting elective care or how state restrictions and climbing unemployment will affect their decision making once they have the option,” Burik and Fisher wrote. “All of which leaves one thing for certain: Healthcare’s delivery, operations, and competitive dynamics are poised to undergo a fundamental and likely sustained transformation.”

As a result, the two experts predict these pandemic-related changes to emerge:

  • Payer-Provider Complexity on the Rise; Patients Will Struggle. As the pandemic has shown, elective services are key revenues for hospitals and health systems. But the pandemic also will leave insured patients struggling with high deductibles, while the number of newly uninsured will grow. Furthermore, upholding of the hospital price transparency ruling will add an unwelcomed spotlight on healthcare pricing and provider margins.
  • Best-in-Class Technology Will Be a Necessity, Not a Luxury. COVID-19 has been a boon for telehealth and digital health usage, creating what is likely to be a permanent expansion of virtual healthcare delivery. But only one-third of executives surveyed say their organizations currently have the infrastructure to support such a shift, which means investments in speech recognition software, patient information pop-up screens, and other infrastructure to smooth workflows will be needed.
Chuck Peck, MD
“Through all the uncertainty COVID-19 has presented, one thing hospitals and health systems can be certain of is their business models will not return to what they were pre-pandemic,” Guidehouse Partner Chuck Peck, MD (above), a former health system CEO, said in a statement. “A comprehensive consumer-facing digital strategy built around telehealth will be a requirement for providers. Moreover, shifting hardware and physical assets to the cloud, and use of robotic process automation, has proven to be successful in improving back-office operations in other industries. Providers will need to follow suit.” Clinical laboratories and anatomic pathology groups should track these developments and respond appropriately to meet the changing needs of the hospitals and physicians they serve with diagnostic testing services. (Photo copyright: Athens Banner-Herald.)
  • The Tech Giants Are Coming. Both major retailers and technology stalwarts, such as Amazon, Walmart, and Walgreens, are entering the healthcare space. In January, Dark Daily reported on Amazon’s roll out of Amazon Care, a 24/7 virtual clinic, for its Seattle-based employees. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is adding to a healthcare portfolio that includes online pharmacy PillPack and joint-venture Haven Healthcare. Meanwhile, Walmart is offering $25 teeth cleaning and $30 checkups at its new Health Centers. Dark Daily covered this in an e-briefing in May, which also covered a new partnership between Walgreens and VillageMD to open up to 700 primary care clinics in 30 US cities in the next five years.
  • Work Location Changes Mean Construction Cost Reductions. According to Guidehouse’s analysis of the HFMA COVID-19 survey, one-in-five executives expect some jobs to remain virtual post-pandemic, leading to permanent changes in the amount of real estate needed for healthcare delivery. The need for a smaller real estate footprint could reduce capital expenditures and costs for hospitals and healthcare systems in the long term.
  • Consolidation is Coming. COVID-19-induced financial pressures will quickly reveal winners and losers and force further consolidation in the healthcare industry. “Resilient” healthcare systems are likely to be those with a 6% to 8% operating margins, providing the financial cushion necessary to innovate and reimagine healthcare post-pandemic.
  • Policy Will Get More Thoughtful and Data-Driven. COVID-19 reopening plans will force policymakers to craft thoughtful, data-driven approaches that will necessitate engagement with health system leaders. Such collaborations will be important not only during this current crisis, but also will provide a blueprint for policy coordination during any future pandemic.

As Burik and Fisher point out, hospitals and healthcare systems emerged from previous economic downturns mostly unscathed. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has proven the exception, leaving providers and health systems facing long-term decreases in commercial payments, while facing increased spending to bolster caregiver- and consumer-facing engagement.

“While situations may differ by market, it’s clear that the pre-pandemic status quo won’t work for most hospitals or health systems,” they wrote.

The message for clinical laboratory managers and surgical pathologists is clear. Patients may be permanently changing their decision-making process when considering elective surgery and selecting a provider, which will alter provider test ordering and lab revenues. Independent clinical laboratories, as well as medical labs operated by hospitals and health systems, must be prepared for the financial stresses that are likely coming.

—Andrea Downing Peck

Related Information:

Industry Voices–6 Ways the Pandemic Will Remake Health Systems

Amazon Care, the Company’s Virtual Medical Clinic, Is Now Live for Seattle Employees

Checkup for $30, Teeth Cleaning $25: Walmart Gets into Health Care

Walgreens and VillageMD to Open 500 to 700 Full-Service Doctor Offices within Next Five Years in a Major Industry First

New AHA Report Finds Financial Impact of COVID-19 on Hospitals and Health Systems to be Over $200 Billion through June

Hospitals Forecast Declining Revenues and Elective Procedure Volumes, Telehealth Adoption Struggles Die to COVID-19

Amazon Care Pilot Program Offers Virtual Primary Care to Seattle Employees; Features Both Telehealth and In-home Care Services That Include Clinical Laboratory Testing

Walmart Opens Second Health Center Offering Clinical Laboratory Tests and Primary Care Services

Where Did all the Antibodies Go? Emory University’s Vaccine Center Studies Bone Marrow to Find Out Why Influenza Vaccines are Short-Lived

Pathologists and clinical laboratory scientists know that influenza vaccines typically produce short-lived protection and researchers have new clues as to why this is true

With so much interest in development of a COVID-19 vaccine, findings by researchers at Atlanta’s Emory Vaccine Center into why the vaccine for influenza (Flu) is so short-lived offer a new window on how the body’s immune system responds to invading viruses and what happens to the immunity over time.

Because the autumn influenza season is just weeks away, these insights into the body’s immune response to influenza will be of interest to clinical laboratories that provide testing for influenza, as well as SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

Clinical laboratory managers recognize that an influenza vaccine is an annual imperative for people—especially the elderly and those with existing comorbidities—and medical laboratory tests are typically used to diagnose the illness and identify which strains of viruses are present. The flu vaccine is even more important amid the COVID-19 pandemic, infectious disease authorities say.

The scientists at the Emory Vaccine Center published their findings in the journal Science.  

How Does Influenza Differ from Other Viruses?

Vaccines for some viruses, such as Hepatitis A, Hepatitis B, and the human papillomavirus, may be taken only one time, but the immunity can last a lifetime.  

Not so with influenza vaccines. The immunity they impart generally only lasts for a single flu season and are “lost within one year,” the Emory study notes.

As Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology News (GEN) explains, the influenza genome has eight RNA segments which can change as the virus enters a cell. This antigenic shift creates new influenza strains that require updated vaccines, GEN noted.

However, the Emory researchers stated that “The fact that a small number did persist over one year raises prospects that the longevity of flu vaccines can be improved and provides key information for the development of universal vaccines against influenza.”

Bone Marrow Has Major Role in Producing New Flu Antibodies

The Emory study focused on the influenza vaccine’s role in how it affects the immune system and what needs to change to create a longer-lasting influenza vaccine. “Our results suggest that most bone marrow plasma cells (BMPC) generated by influenza vaccination in adults are short-lived. Designing strategies to enhance their persistence will be key,” the Emory researchers wrote in Science.

The scientists analyzed bone marrow from 53 healthy volunteers (age 20 to 45). An Emory news release states that bone marrow is the “home base for immune cells producing antibodies.”

Besides the bone marrow, the researchers also examined blood samples from the volunteers, all of which was collected between 2009 and 2018:

  • before influenza vaccination,
  • one month after influenza vaccination, and
  • one year post vaccination.

Through DNA sequencing the samples, the Emory researchers found the number of flu-specific cells increased from 0.8% to 1.9% after one month. They concluded that an annual vaccine does increase antibody-producing cells for influenza in bone marrow.

However, in follow-up visits one year after vaccination, they found that the number of cells present in the volunteers had fallen back to the starting point.

“Specific cells produced by the vaccine … produced unique antibodies that can be identified using sequencing techniques,” Carl Davis, PhD, postdoctoral fellow in the Rafi Ahmed Laboratory at Emory and first author of the paper, said in the news release, adding, “We could see that these new antibodies expanded in the bone marrow one month after vaccination and then contracted after one year.”

He continued, “On the other hand, antibodies against influenza that were in the bone marrow before the vaccine was given stayed at a constant level over one year.”

Vaccine Adjuvants Help Boost Immunity

A vaccine additive called an adjuvant could be the answer to extending the power of  influenza vaccines, the Emory scientists noted.

“Just getting to the bone marrow is not enough. A plasma cell has to find a niche within the bone marrow and establish itself there and undergo gene expression and metabolism changes that promote longevity,” Rafi Ahmed, PhD, Director of the Emory Vaccine Center, said in the news release.

Adjuvants could boost BMPC, because they act as “irritants” to beef up immune response, an article in Science titled, “Why Flu Vaccines Don’t Protect People for Long,” explained.

“It’s totally crazy (that the most commonly used influenza vaccines don’t include an adjuvant), Ahmed told Science. “I’m hoping that things will change in the influenza vaccine world, and 10 years from now, you will not be getting any nonadjuvanted vaccines.” 

Adjuvants used in vaccine studies for the SARS-CoV-1 coronavirus could be useful in developing vaccines for the SARS-CoV-2
Taken from the published study, “Potential Adjuvants for the Development of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Based on Experimental Results from Similar Coronaviruses,” the graphic above shows adjuvants used in vaccine studies for the SARS-CoV-1 coronavirus could be useful in developing vaccines for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus as well. (Graphic copyright: Immunopharmacology/Elsevier.)

Are Adjuvants the Answer for COVID-19 Vaccines?

According to USA Today, about 20-million “essential” workers will likely be the first to receive the new COVID-19 vaccine and participate in check-in text messages with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) by the end of 2020.

In its COVID-19 vaccine testing, Novavax, a late-state biotechnology company, suggests that “an adjuvant is critical to its vaccine working well,” National Public Radio (NPR) reported in “The Special Sauce That Makes Some Vaccines Work.” However, vaccine developers may be reluctant to share their adjuvant research.

“Adjuvants end up being very proprietary. It’s kind of the secret sauce on how to make your protein vaccine work,” Barney Graham, MD, PhD, Deputy Director, Vaccine Research Center, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NPR.

Still, a study published in Immunopharmacology revealed potential adjuvants for the COVID-19 vaccine based on vaccine studies of other coronaviruses. While there are many adjuvants available, not all have safety track records that can be leveraged to gain clearance from regulatory bodies, the researchers pointed out. But some do.

CpG 1018, MF59, and AS03 are already approved for human vaccine and their inclusion may expedite the vaccine development process. Further, Protollin has shown promising results in pre-clinical studies,” the authors wrote.

Clinical laboratories that provide influenza testing will want to follow these types of research studies. Findings on immunity will affect development of vaccines that medical labs provide—including for COVID-19.

—Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

Why Flu Vaccine Immunity is Short-Lived

Influenza Vaccine-induced Human Bone Marrow Plasma Cells Decline Within a Year After Vaccination

Seasonal Flu Vaccinations Don’t “Stick” Long-Term in Bone Marrow

Why Flu Vaccines Don’t Protect People for Long

First COVID-19 Vaccine Recipients Get Daily CDC Check Texts

Administration Announces $200 Million From CDC to Jurisdictions for COVID-19 Vaccine Preparedness

All You Wanted to Know About the Coronavirus Vaccine Science but Were Afraid to Ask

Potential Adjuvants for the Development of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Based on Experimental Results from Similar Coronaviruses

New Artificial Intelligence Algorithm Uses Routine Clinical Laboratory Tests to Identify Patients Likely Infected with COVID-19

At hospitals where results of molecular COVID-19 testing can take up to several days to return, this new method for identifying potentially infected patients could improve triage

Frustrated by shortages of essential COVID-19 tests and supplies—as well by lengthy coronavirus test turn-around times—researchers at Weill Cornell Medicine have created an Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithm that can use routine clinical laboratory test data to determine if a patient is infected with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes the COVID-19 disease.

This is an important development because the turn-around-time (TAT) for common lab tests is generally much shorter than COVID-19 molecular diagnostics—such as real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), currently the most popular coronavirus test—and certainly serological (antibody) diagnostics, which require an infection incubation time of as much as 10-14 days before testing.

Some RT-PCR diagnostic tests for COVID-19, which detect viral RNA on nasopharyngeal swab specimens, can take up to several days to return depending on the test and on the lab’s location. But routine medical laboratory tests generally return much sooner, often within minutes or hours, making this a potential game-changer for triaging infected patients.

Machine Learning Brings AI to COVID-19 Diagnostics

Advances in the use of AI in healthcare have led to the development of machine-learning algorithms that are being utilized as diagnostic tools for anatomic pathology, radiology, and for specific complex diseases, such as cancer. The Weill Cornell scientists wanted to see if alternative lab test results could be used by an algorithmic model to identify people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.

Sarina Yang, MD, PhD
“When patients come to the [emergency department] and the doctor orders several panels of routine lab [tests] and also the [SARS-CoV-2] RT-PCR test, generally the routine test results come back in a couple of hours,” Sarina Yang, MD, PhD (above), one of the authors of the study, told Modern Healthcare. “So, we thought it could be useful to use the routine labs to predict whether the RT-PCR results would be positive or negative to improve the triage process.” Yang is an assistant professor in the Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, and Assistant Director of the central laboratory and Director of the toxicology laboratory at Weill Cornell Medicine. (Photo copyright: Weill Cornell Medicine.)

To perform the research, the team incorporated patients’ age, sex, and race, into a machine learning model that was based on results from 27 routine lab tests chosen from a total of 685 different tests ordered for the patients. The study included 3,356 patients who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 at New York-Presbyterian Hospital/Weill Cornell Medical Center between March 11 and April 29 of this year. The patients ranged in ages from 18 to 101 with the mean age being 56.4 years. Of those patients, 1,402 were RT-PCR positive and the remaining 1,954 were RT-PCR negative.  

Using a machine-learning technique known as a gradient-boosting decision tree, the algorithm identified SARS-CoV-2 infections with 76% sensitivity and 81% specificity. When looking at only emergency department (ED) patients, the model performed even better with 80% sensitivity and 83% specificity. ED patients comprised just over half (54%) of the patients used for the study. 

Weill Cornell Medicine Algorithm Could Lower False Negative Test Results

The algorithm also correctly identified patients who originally tested negative for COVID-19, but who tested positive for the coronavirus upon retesting within two days. According to the researchers, these results indicated their model could potentially decrease the amount of incorrect test results.

“We are thinking that those potentially false negative patients may demonstrate a different routine lab test profile that might be more similar to those that test positive,” Fei Wang, PhD, Assistant Professor of Healthcare Policy and Research at Weill Cornell Medicine and the study’s senior author, told Modern Healthcare. “So, it offers us a chance to capture those patients who are false negatives.”

The researchers validated their model by comparing the results with patients seen at New York Presbyterian Hospital/Lower Manhattan Hospital during the same time period. Among those patients, 496 were RT-PCR positive and 968 were negative and the algorithmic model performed with 74% specificity and 76% sensitivity. 

In their study, published in the Oxford Academic journal Clinical Chemistry, titled, “Routine Laboratory Blood Tests Predict SARS-CoV-2 Infection Using Machine Learning,” the Weill Cornell Medicine scientists concluded that their research illustrated the algorithm could:

  • preliminarily identify high-risk SARS-CoV-2 infected patients before RT-PCR results are available,
  • risk stratify patients in the ED,
  • select patients who need relatively urgent retesting if initial RT-PCR results are negative,
  • help isolate infected patients earlier, and
  • assist in the identification of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients in areas where RT-PCR testing is unavailable due to financial or supply constraints.

Early Results of Study Promising, But More Research is Needed

Wang noted that more research is needed on the algorithm and that he and his colleagues are currently working on ways to improve the model. They are hoping to test it with different conditions and geographies.

“Our model in the paper was built on data from when New York was at its COVID peak,” he told Modern Healthcare. “At that time, we were not doing wide PCR testing, and the patients who were getting tested were pretty sick.”

At the time of the study, the positivity rate for COVID-19 at New York-Presbyterian Hospital was in the 40% to 50% range. That was substantially higher than the current positivity rate, which is in the 2% to 3% range, Modern Healthcare reported.

“This model we built in a population in New York in a certain time period, so we can’t guarantee that it will work well universally,” Wang told Modern Healthcare.

It’s exciting to think that advances in software algorithms may one day make it possible to combine routine clinical laboratory testing and create diagnostics that identify diseases in ways the individual tests were not originally designed to do.

This study is an example that researchers in AI and informatics are working to bring new tools and diagnostic capabilities to clinical laboratories. Also, this is a demonstration of how a patient’s results from multiple other types of lab tests can by analyzed using AI and similar analytical algorithms to diagnose a health condition unrelated to the original reasons for performing those tests.

If this can be demonstrated with other diseases and health conditions, it would open up one more way that pathologists and clinical laboratory scientists can contribute to more accurate diagnoses and improved selection of the most appropriate therapies for individual patients.

—JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Routine Lab Tests Could Help Identify COVID-19 Patients

Routine Laboratory Blood Tests Predict SARS-CoV-2 Infection Using Machine Learning

Mobile Device Software Companies Are Developing Smartphone Apps That Use Artificial Intelligence to Test for COVID-19, Potentially Bypassing the Clinical Laboratory Altogether

Florida Hospital Utilizes Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Platform to Reduce Clinical Variation in Its Healthcare, with Implications for Medical Laboratories

Apple Updates Its Mobile Health Apps, While Microsoft Shifts Its Focus to Artificial Intelligence. Both Will Transform Healthcare, But Which Will Impact Clinical Laboratories the Most?

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