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Becker’s Health IT Releases Lists of Providers That Paid the Most for Their EHRs

New EHR installations may require new laboratory information system upgrades and interfaces

Electronic health record (EHR) systems continue to be one of the costliest investments healthcare providers can make. And the company that holds the largest portion of the EHR market is Epic, with anywhere from 36% to 44%, according to various published reports and research briefs.

Healthcare executives remorseful about the cost of their hospital’s EHR may take solace in Becker’s Health IT’s recent list of the “most expensive” Epic EHR installations. It is common for the largest projects to cross the $1 billion mark.

Clinical laboratory leaders tasked with interfacing their hospital’s laboratory information system (LIS) with their healthcare system’s EHR may find the following information useful. The investment in time begins months before the actual EHR implementation.

One example is Lake Charles Memorial Health System (LCMHS) Lake Charles, La. In a blog post, the health system reported that it took 18 months for its physicians, clinicians, and staff to prepare for the installation of their new Epic MyChart EHR.

“There are lots of things we wish our customers would do to make sure their system runs well. Making sure every user is trained, for example. Putting in upgrades quickly. Making sure that the hardware runs fast enough,” wrote Judy Faulkner, Epic founder and CEO, in an Epic blog post.

“The LCMHS staff and physicians have championed this project from the beginning, and I have them to thank for the success of this EMR transition and look forward to seeing the positive impacts as we settle into the operational changes and new experiences Epic brings Lake Charles Memorial Health System and those we serve,” said Devon Hyde (above), President and CEO of Lake Charles Memorial Health System, about the provider’s transition to a new Epic MyChart EHR. (Photo copyright: Lake Charles Memorial Health System.)

Top 10 Most Expensive Epic EHR Installs of 2024

While Becker’s noted that the following compilation is “not an exhaustive list,” here’s its list of the top 10 most expensive Epic EHR projects based on publicly available sources.

  1. Northwell Health, New Hyde Park, N.Y.:                                          $1.2 billion
  2. Trinity Health, Livonia, Mich.:                                                          $800 million
  3. AdventHealth, Altamonte Springs, Fla.:                                            $660 million
  4. Memorial Hermann Health System, Houston:                                   $500 million
  5. UAB Health System, Birmingham, Ala.:                                           $380 million
  6. Broward Health, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.:                                             $250 million
  7. Wellstar Health System, Marietta, Ga.:                                              $175 million
  8. Health First, Rockledge, Fla.:                                                             $160 million
  9. Sarasota Memorial Health Care System, Sarasota, Fla.:                    $160 million
  10. MultiCare Health System, Tacoma, Wash.:                                       $50 million

Largest Epic EHR Projects Ever

Beyond 2024, here are the “largest Epic EHR projects of all time,” Becker’s Health IT reported separately based on publicly available sources:

  1. Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, Calif:                                                   $4 billion
  2. Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn.:                                                         $1.5 billion
  3. Mass General Brigham, Somerville, Mass.:                                       $1.2 billion
  4. Northwell Health, New Hyde Park, N.Y.:                                          $1.2 billion
  5. NYC Health and Hospitals, New York, N.Y.:                                   $1 billion
  6. Sutter Health, Sacramento, Calif.:                                                      $1 billion
  7. New York-Presbyterian, New York, N.Y.:                                        $964 million
  8. Providence, Renton, Wash.:                                                               $800 million   
  9. Trinity Health, Livonia, Mich.:                                                          $800 million
  10. Duke University Health, Durham, N.C.:                                            $700 million
  11. UMass Memorial Health, Worcester, Mass.:                                     $700 million   

Training Key for New EHR: Report

According to a report by research firm KLAS titled, “EHR Implementations 2025: Investing in People to Avoid Pitfalls and Ensure Clinical Success,” in addition to the “tremendous financial undertaking,” healthcare organizations also face implementation challenges following EHR installations.

KLAS reported that among the healthcare leaders KLAS interviewed:

  • 27% had “an above-average EHR post-implementation” likely due to “providing technological foundation needed” at go-live, while,
  • 40% said implementation of the EHR “had significant misses” and,
  • 22% reported “average satisfaction with room for improvement.”

Providing staff with adequate training may smooth the way for new EHRs, according to the KLAS report. “Often, leaders wish they had invested in more training time and workflow-specific training in the context of patient care,” the authors wrote.

New EHR May Mean New LIS

Pathologists and clinical laboratory leaders may need to transition the laboratory information system (LIS) when the healthcare organization moves to a new EHR. At the very least, new interfaces will be required.

While a new EHR and LIS requires significant investments, they also provide opportunities for needed upgrades, competitive advantage, and security.           

—Donna Marie Pocius

Becker’s Hospital Review Ranks 16 Healthcare Systems with the Largest Investment in EHR Platforms

Compilation shows US Veterans Administration spent the most at $16B

Clinical laboratory leaders and pathologists will be interested in which hospital systems are making the largest investments in electronic health record (EHR) technologies. Especially considering laboratory information systems (LIS) must interface with these platforms and require extensive reworking when hospitals change their EHRs. For example, hospitals moving to the Epic Systems EHR often require their laboratories to implement the Epic Beaker LIS as well.

According to information sourced by Becker’s Hospital Review, the top 16 hospital systems each spent $500 million or more on EHRs, adding, however, that the information is “not an exhaustive list.” 

Number three on the list is Kaiser Permanente which operates multiple hospitals within its nine healthcare networks across the United States serving 12.5 million members. For that reason, its total investment in EHR technology represents a much larger number of hospitals than the other health systems on the list.

Of the 16 providers on the list, 12 installed EHRs provided by Epic Systems of Verona, Wis. Four of the providers implemented EHRs from Oracle Health (formerly Cerner), North Kansas City, Mo., and Meditech of Westwood, Mass.

“Looking forward, there are many advantages in terms of investing in the future and how we will be aligned with technologies including digital and AI applications,” said pathologist Angelique W. Levi, MD (above), vice chair and director of pathology reference services at Yale School of Medicine, in a news release following a site visit to Geisinger Diagnostic Medicine Institute in Danville, Pa., to see Epic Beaker in operation at Geisinger’s clinical laboratory. “But what we gain immediately—having all the patient information accessible in one place in a linked and integrated fashion—is very important.” (Photo copyright: Yale School of Medicine.)

Provider, EHR, Investment

Becker’s list below shows the total amount invested by the 16 healthcare systems was approximately $38.32 billion. The average EHR implementation cost is $2.39 billion for a large healthcare provider. 

  • US Department of Veteran Affairs, Washington, D.C. (Oracle)    $16 billion.
  • Military Health System, Washington, D.C. (Oracle)                    $5.5 billion.
  • Kaiser Permanente, Oakland, Calif. (Epic)                                 $4.0 billion.
  • Catholic Health Initiatives (CommonSpirit Health),
    Englewood, Colo. (Oracle/Meditech)                                         $1.5 billion.
  • Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minn. (Epic)                                        $1.5 billion.
  • Mass General Brigham, Somerville, Mass. (Epic)                       $1.2 billion.
  • Northwell Health, New Hyde Park, N.Y. (Epic)                          $1.2 billion.
  • Dignity Health, San Francisco (Oracle/Meditech)                          $1 billion.
  • NYC Health and Hospitals, New York, N.Y. (Epic)                       $1 billion.
  • Sutter Health, Sacramento, Calif. (Epic)                                        $1 billion.
  • NewYork-Presbyterian, New York, N.Y. (Epic)                       $964 million.
  • Providence, Renton, Wash. (Epic)                                            $800 million.
  • Trinity Health, Livonia, Mich. (Epic)                                       $800 million.
  • Duke University Health System, Durham, N.C. (Epic)              $700 million. 
  • AdventHealth, Altamonte Springs, Fla. (Epic)                          $660 million.
  • Memorial Hermann Health System, Houston (Epic)                  $500 million.

Becker’s stated they assembled this list from public sources and that there may be other EHR/hospital contracts with a total cost that also would make the list. It is not common to see a list of what hospitals actually spend to acquire and deploy a new EHR.

Shifting EHR Market

According to KLAS’ 2024 US Acute Care EHR Market Share report, Epic was the only EHR vendor to increase its market share in 2023.

Epic added 153 hospitals to its client base in 2023. Epic’s EHR competitors—Oracle and Meditech—both experienced declines in client retention rate, Healthcare IT News reported based on the KLAS data.

“Both current and prospective large organization customers are drawn to Epic because they see the vendor as a consistently high performer that provides strong healthcare IT [information technology], quality relationships, and the opportunity to streamline workflows and improve clinicians’ satisfaction,” Healthcare IT News said of the KLAS report’s findings.

In a blog post, authors of the KLAS report explained that in 2023 Oracle added specialty hospital clients and Meditech “saw several new sales” which included healthcare systems and independent providers.

In the next few years, the industry is “ripe for disruption. Another vendor could come in and turn everything on its head,” the KLAS blog article concluded. “Even those who choose Epic want to have more competitive options to choose from.”

Preparing for an LIS Change

Clinical laboratory leaders who may be transitioning their LIS during a new EHR installation may learn from colleagues who completed such an implementation. 

In September, Yale School of Medicine in New Haven, Conn., sent a department of pathology team to visit Geisinger Diagnostic Medicine Institute, Danville, Pa. Geisinger had adopted Epic Beaker and has a workflow similar to Yale’s, according to a Yale News article. 

Angelique Levi, MD, vice chair and director of pathology reference services at Yale School of Medicine, who was part of the pathology team, noted that one challenge for labs is addressing “information that’s from many different places when we’re talking about cancer care, prognostic testing, and diagnostics.

“It’s become much more complicated to manage all those data points,” she continued. “Without being on an integrated and aligned system, you’re getting pieces of information from different places, but not the ability to have linked and integrated reports in one spot.”

EHR implementations are among the most labor-intensive, expensive projects undertaken by hospitals. Therefore, it is crucial that clinical laboratory and pathology leaders research and learn why an EHR (and possibly LIS) change is needed, what is expected, and when results will be received.

—Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

Most Expensive EHRs, Ranked

Broward Health Transforms Care with Epic Implementation

US Acute Care EHR Market Share 2024

Top 6 EHR Vendors Worldwide

Epic’s EHR Market Share Gains Continue, KLAS Report Shows

US Acute Care EHR Market Share in 2024

Pathology Team Encouraged about Migration to Epic Beaker Laboratory Information System

What Key Laboratory Leaders Will Learn at This Week’s 2023 Executive War College on Diagnostics, Clinical Laboratory, and Pathology Management

Executives and pathologists from many of the nation’s most prominent clinical laboratories are on their way to the Crescent City today to share best practices, hear case studies from innovative labs, and network

NEW ORLEANS—This afternoon, more than 900 lab CEOs, administrators, and pathologists will convene for the 28th Annual Executive War College on Diagnostics, Clinical Laboratory, and Pathology Management conference. Three topics of great interest will center around adequate lab staffing, effective cost management, and developing new sources of lab testing revenue.

Important sessions will also address the explosion in next-generation sequencing and genetic testing, proposed FDA regulation of laboratory-developed tests (LDTs), and innovative ways that clinical laboratories and pathology groups can add value and be paid for that additional value.

All this is happening amidst important changes to healthcare and medicine in the United States. “Today, the US healthcare system is transforming itself at a steady pace,” explained Robert L. Michel, Editor-in-Chief of The Dark Report and Founder of the Executive War College. “Big multi-hospital health systems are merging with each other, and payers are slashing reimbursement for many medical lab tests, even as healthcare consumers want direct access to clinical laboratory tests and the full record of their lab test history.

“Each of these developments has major implications in how clinical laboratories serve their parent organizations, offer services directly to consumers, and negotiate with payers for fair reimbursement as in-network providers,” Michel added. “Attending the Executive War College on Diagnostics, Clinical Laboratory, and Pathology Management equips lab leaders with the tools they’ll need to make smart decisions during these challenging times.”

Executive War College

Now in its 28th year, the Executive War College on Diagnostics, Clinical Laboratory, and Pathology Management convenes April 25-26 in New Orleans. Executive War College extends to a third day with three full-day workshops: LEAN fundamentals for lab leaders, a genetic testing program track, and a digital pathology track. Learn more at www.ExecutiveWarCollege.com. (Photo copyright: The Dark Intelligence Group.)

Challenges and Opportunities for Clinical Laboratories

With major changes unfolding in the delivery and reimbursement of clinical services, clinical laboratory and pathology practice leaders need effective ways to respond to the evolving needs of physicians, patients, and payers. As The Dark Report has often covered, three overlapping areas are a source of tension and financial pressure for labs:

  • Day-to-day pressures to manage costs in the clinical laboratory or pathology practice.
  • The growing demand for genetic testing, accompanied by reimbursement challenges.
  • Evolving consumer expectations in how they receive medical care and interact with providers.

Addressing all three issues and much more, the 2023 Executive War College on Diagnostics, Clinical Laboratory, and Pathology Management features more than 80 sessions with up to 125 lab managers, consultants, vendors, and in vitro diagnostic (IVD) experts as speakers and panelists.

Old-School Lab Rules Have Evolved into New-School Lab Rules

Tuesday’s keynote general sessions (to be reported exclusively in Wednesday’s Dark Daily ebriefing) will include four points of interest for clinical laboratory and pathology leaders who are managing change and pursuing new opportunities:

  • Positioning the lab to prosper by serving healthcare’s new consumers, new care models, new payment models, and more, with Michel at the podium.
  • How old-school lab rules have evolved into new-school lab rules and ways to transition the lab through today’s disrupters in healthcare and the clinical laboratory marketplace, with Stan Schofield, Managing Principal of the Compass Group.
  • The growing trend of clinical laboratory-pharmacy relationships with David Pope, PharmD, CDE, Chief Pharmacy Officer at OmniSYS, XIFIN Pharmacy Solutions.
  • Generating value by identifying risk signals in longitudinal lab data and opportunities in big data from payers, physicians, pharma, and bioresearch, with Brad Bostic, Chairman and CEO of hc1.

Wednesday’s keynote sessions (see exclusive insights in Friday’s Dark Daily ebriefing) explore:

Wednesday’s keynotes conclude with a panel discussion on delivering value to physicians, patients, and payers with lab testing services.

Clinical Labs, Payers, and Health Plans Swamped by Genetic Test Claims

Attendees of the 2023 Executive War College on Diagnostics, Clinical Laboratory, and Pathology Management may notice a greater emphasis on whole genome sequencing and genetic testing this year.

As regular coverage and analysis in The Dark Report has pointed out, clinical laboratories, payers, and health plans face challenges with the explosion of genetic testing. Several Executive War College Master Classes will explore critical management issues of genetic and genomic testing, including laboratory benefit management programs, coverage decisions, payer relations, and best coding practices, as well as genetic test stewardship.

This year’s Executive War College also devotes a one-day intensive session on how community hospitals and local labs can set up and offer genetic tests and next-generation sequencing services. This third-day track features more than a dozen experts including:

During these sessions, attendees will be introduced to “dry labs” and “virtual CLIA labs.” These new terms differentiate the two organizations that process genetic data generated by “wet labs,” annotate it, and provide analysis and interpretation for referring physicians.

State of the Industry: Clinical Lab, Private Practice Pathology, Genetic Testing, IVD, and More

For lab consultants, executives, and directors interested in state-of-the-industry Q/A and discussions concerning commercial laboratories, private-practice pathology, and in vitro diagnostics companies, a range of breakout sessions, panels, and roundtables will cover:

  • Action steps to protect pathologists’ income and boost practice revenue.
  • Important developments in laboratory legal, regulatory, and compliance requirements.
  • New developments in clinical laboratory certification and accreditation, including the most common deficiencies and how to reach “assessment ready” status.
  • An update on the IVD industry and what’s working in today’s post-pandemic market for lab vendors and their customers.
  • Federal government updates on issues of concern to clinical laboratories, including PAMA, the VALID Act, and more.

Long-time attendees will notice the inclusion of “Diagnostics” into the Executive War College moniker. It’s an important addition, Michel explained for Dark Daily.

“In the recent past, ‘clinical laboratory’ and ‘anatomic pathology’ were terms that sufficiently described the profession of laboratory medicine,” he noted. “However, a subtle but significant change has occurred in recent years. The term ‘diagnostics’ has become a common description for medical testing, along with other diagnostic areas such as radiology and imaging.”

Key managers of medical laboratories, pathology groups, and in vitro diagnostics have much to gain from attending the Executive War College on Diagnostics, Clinical Laboratory, and Pathology Management, now in its 28th year. Look for continued coverage through social media channels, at Dark Daily, and in The Dark Report.

Clinical laboratories are invited to continue the conversations by joining the Executive War College Discussion Group and The Dark Report Discussion Group on LinkedIn.

Liz Carey

Related Information:

Executive War College on Diagnostics, Clinical Laboratory, and Pathology Management Agenda

Six Important Themes to Help Labs Succeed

Executive War College Press

The Dark Report

Dark Daily eBriefings

The Dark Report Discussion Group

Executive War College Discussion Group

PwC Survey Finds 50% of Companies Plan Layoffs and 83% Intend to Move Forward with Streamlined Workforces

Amid cost pressures, healthcare providers also plan to cut staff though some jobs are plentiful; adequate staffing at medical laboratories continues to be a challenge

Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent “Great Resignation,” masses of people have left the workforce and companies large and small in all industries are struggling to retain employees. Clinical laboratories have been particularly hard hit with no relief in sight.

Now comes the results of a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) survey which shows 50% of US companies in various industries—including major healthcare providers—plan to lay off employees. And 83% of organizations intend to move forward with a “streamlined workforce,” according to the latest PwC Pulse: Managing Business Risks in 2022 report.

How this will affect the workload on remaining hospital and medical laboratory staff is clear. And healthcare consumers may not take well to healthcare provides running leaner and with fewer staff than they currently do.

Nevertheless, the PwC survey results “illustrate the contradictory nature of today’s labor market, where skilled workers can still largely name their terms amid talent shortages even as companies look to let people go elsewhere,” Bloomberg wrote on the  CPA Practice Advisor website.

Bhushan Sethi

“Organizations are still walking a tightrope when it comes to talent as we begin to see the longer-term impacts of the ‘Great Resignation.’ Finding the proper balance between investing in specialized talent, managing headcount costs, and driving productivity and morale will remain a top focus,” said Bhushan Sethi (above), People and Organization Joint Global Leader at PwC and an adjunct professor at NYU Stern School of Business in a PwC news release. Clinical laboratories are finding it particularly challenging to fill staff positions across all areas of lab operations. (Photo copyright: PwC.)

Healthcare Has Biggest Challenges, says PwC

Clinical laboratory leaders and pathologist groups are well aware of the unique financial pressures on healthcare systems and medical labs, as well as shortages of pathologists, medical technologists, clinical laboratory scientists, information technology (IT) professionals, and other healthcare workers.

“Healthcare is seeing bigger talent challenges than other industries and is more focused on rehiring employees who have recently left,” the PwC report acknowledged. This is the second Pulse survey PwC conducted in 2022. The 722 respondents included leaders working in human capital and finance.  

Finding Right Talent, Focusing on Growth, Automation

Finding the right employees is so important to companies that PwC ranks “talent acquisition” as the second highest risk (38%) behind cyber-attacks (40%).

“Finding the right talent continues to be a challenge for business leaders,” PwC said. “After a frenzy of hiring and a tight labor market over the past few years, executives see the distinction between having people and having people with the right skills.”

Unlike the high-touch and personal nature of healthcare, industries such as consumer technology, media, and telecommunications can turn to automation to alleviate staffing struggles. And that is what nearly two-thirds, or 63%, of companies in those sectors, aim to do, PwC said.

Other survey talent findings:

  • 50% of companies plan layoffs.
  • 46% are dropping or eliminating sign-on bonuses.
  • 44% are rescinding job offers.

Conversely, the surveyed executives also told PwC they are “cautiously optimistic” and plan on growing and investing even as the economy gives mixed signals:

  • 83% of companies are focused on growth.
  • 70% plan an acquisition.
  • 53% aim to invest in digital transformation, 52% in IT, 49% in cybersecurity and privacy, and 48% in customer experience.

“After more than two years dealing with uncertainty related to the pandemic, business leaders recognize the urgent need to focus on growth in order to compete, and they’re zeroing in on what they can control,” PwC said.

New Remote Work Programs, Reduction in Real Estate Investing, Big Tech

Although companies report having more than enough physical office space, many (42%) have launched remote work programs:

  • 70% have expanded or plan to increase “permanent” remote work options as jobs permit.
  • 22% are reducing real estate investment (financial services and healthcare industries lead the way with 30% and 29%, respectively, saying real estate buys are cooling off).

“While companies continue to invest in many areas of the business, they’re scaling back the most in real estate and capex ex [capital expenditure]. After two years of remote work, many companies simply need less space, and they’re allocating capital accordingly,” the PwC report noted.

In a somewhat parallel release to PwC’s findings, news sources are reporting reductions in real estate and staff at high-profile Big Tech companies.

Meta Platforms, Inc. in Menlo Park, Calif. (formerly Facebook Inc.), is closing one of its New York offices and cutting back on plans to expand two other locations in the city, the Observer reported.

Business Insider reported, “More than 32,000 tech workers have been laid off in the US till July, including at Big Tech companies like Microsoft and Meta (formerly Facebook), and the worst has not been over yet for the tech sector that has seen massive stock sell-off.”

According to Forbes, “San Francisco-based electronic signature company DocuSign will lay off 9% of its more than 7,400 employees (roughly 670 employees), the company announced in a Securities and Exchange filing Wednesday, saying the cuts are ‘necessary to ensure we are capitalizing on our long-term opportunity and setting up the company for future success.’”

And Bloomberg recently reported that Intel is planning to layoff thousands of people “around the same time as its third-quarter earnings report on Oct. 27.”

Healthcare Providers Plan Layoffs, Seek IT Pros

Meanwhile, major healthcare provider networks also are planning staff cuts amid service closures, rising costs, and other issues, according to Becker’s Hospital Review:

“Our health system, like others around the nation, is facing significant financial pressures from historic inflation, rising pharmaceutical and labor costs, COVID-19, expiration of CARES Act funding, and reimbursement not proportional with expenses,” BHSH said in a statement shared with Becker’s.

Amidst these layoffs, however, IT jobs in healthcare seem to be growing. According to Becker’s Health IT, some healthcare providers have posted information technology openings:

So, though it appears IT positions continue to expand, clinical laboratory leaders and pathology practice managers may want to prepare now for dealing with customers’ response to leaner healthcare systems overall.

Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

PwC Pulse: Managing Business Risks in 2022

Layoffs are Being Planned at Half of US Companies, PwC Survey Shows

Business Executives Remain Bullish about Their Ability to Manage Turbulent Conditions, according to New PwC Survey

Meta Is Closing a Manhattan Office as It Consolidates Its New York City Presence

50% of Companies Planning Job Cuts Amid Economic Downturn: Report

Ascension to Close Hospital, Lay Off 133 Workers

Microsoft Reportedly Cuts Nearly 1,000 Employees—Here Are the Biggest US Layoffs This Year

Intel Is Planning Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of PC Slump

Hospitals Cut Jobs to Resuscitate Finances

IT Job Openings at Mayo, Northwell, CommonSpirit, and Providence

Do New Strains of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus and Inconsistent Distribution of COVID-19 Vaccines Threaten a Return to Normalcy in 2021? McKinsey Weighs In

The latest McKinsey report addresses when the COVID-19 pandemic is “most likely” to end and what needs to happen to get there

Clinical laboratory leaders, pathologists, and diagnostics professionals everywhere want to know when the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus will burn itself out. When can we expect to return to normal? Since there is no such thing as a crystal ball, it might be helpful to review the latest report from international management consulting firm McKinsey and Company, titled, appropriately, “When Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End?

It’s a good question, and McKinsey is not certain of the answer. Barring other factors, McKinsey predicts “Transition toward normalcy in the United States remains most likely in the second quarter of 2021 and herd immunity in the third and fourth quarters, but the emergence of new strains and a slow start to vaccine rollout raise real risks to both timelines.” The report also states, “the emergence of more-infectious variants of SARS-CoV-2 increases the risk that this milestone will not be achieved until later.

“More-infectious viruses,” McKinsey continued, “require that a higher percentage of people be simultaneously immune to reach herd immunity. While a more infectious variant likely means more people are acquiring natural immunity through infection (despite ongoing efforts to minimize new cases), the net impact of more-infectious strains is likely to be that a higher portion of the population needs to be vaccinated, which may take more time.”

Challenges That May Slow Herd Immunity to COVID-19

“It is now harder to imagine the United States or United Kingdom transitioning to normalcy before second quarter 2021 or reaching herd immunity before third quarter 2021,” McKinsey added. “Herd immunity to a pathogen is achieved when a sufficient portion of a population is simultaneously immune to prevent sustained transmission.”

But problems in [COVID-19] vaccine distribution, supply shortages, and intermittent participation by the population could push the pandemic endpoint to 2022, cautioned McKinsey.

“We believe herd immunity in the United States is still most likely in third or fourth quarter 2021, but that the chance of delay until first quarter 2022 or beyond has increased,” the report states, “Even later herd immunity remains possible if other challenges arise, especially vaccine safety concerns or ambivalence to vaccination following a transition toward normalcy.”

Other factors that went into the firm’s “most likely” set of possible timelines include:

  • “Unexpected safety issues emerging with early vaccines,
  • “Significant manufacturing or supply-chain delays,
  • “Continued slow adoption,
  • “Further mutation [of the virus],
  • “A shorter-than-anticipated duration of vaccine-conferred immunity.”
Graph from McKinsey and Co. report about covid-19 herd immunity projections into year 2023
The graph above, taken from the McKinsey and Co. report, illustrates how “the probability of reaching COVID-19 herd immunity in the United States is highest in the third or fourth quarter, but could shift.” (Graphic copyright: McKinsey and Company.)

A ‘Transition Toward Normalcy’

In its report, McKinsey notes that “During this transition, controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 will still require public-health measures (such as continued COVID-19 testing and mask use in many settings), but mortality will fall significantly, allowing greater normalization of business and social activities.”

In apparent agreement, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project, as of Jan. 27, 2021, 107,444 people were hospitalized in the US with COVID-19, as compared to 130,000 hospital cases on Jan. 13, 2021. Numbers of new cases appear to be dropping, however, McKinsey predicts that “COVID-19 will not disappear during this transition but will become a more normal part of the baseline disease burden in society (like flu, for example), rather than a special threat requiring exceptional societal response.”

It may help that more people are taking one of the vaccines. A recent survey conducted by London-based research and analytics firm YouGov, found that people worldwide are becoming more willing to take the COVID-19 vaccine. For example, in the UK, 80% of those surveyed gave a thumbs-up to getting vaccinated, compared to 61% in November. In the US, however, still only about 45% said they will get the vaccine, up slightly from 42% who said so in July, YouGov reported.

However, McKinsey points out that “vaccine rollout has not yet proceeded far enough to protect much of the population.”

How Should Medical Laboratories and Other Healthcare Providers Proceed?

In “No One Said it Would Be Easy,” Jan. 22, 2021, Becker’s Hospital Review, Michael Dowling, President and CEO of Northwell Health, wrote, “We will be living in a world preoccupied by COVID-19 and vaccination for many months to come … And the stark reality is that the vaccination rollout will continue well into the summer, if not longer, while at the same time we continue to care for hundreds of thousands of Americans sickened by the virus. Despite the challenges we face now and in the coming months in treating the disease and vaccinating a US population of 330 million, none of us should doubt that we will prevail.”

“To achieve that,” McKinsey notes, “we will need to see significant progress on the epidemiological end point … Favorable findings on natural and cross-immunity would help accelerate timelines.

“Five additional criteria will also contribute to the transition to a form of normalcy—the more of these that are achieved, the faster the milestone is likely to be reached:

  • “Continued improvement by governments in the application of public-health interventions (such as test and trace) that don’t significantly limit economic and social activities.
  • “Compliance with public-health measures until we achieve herd immunity.
  • “Accurate, widely available, rapid testing that effectively enables specific activities.
  • “Continued advancements in therapeutics (including pre- and post-exposure prophylactics) for and clinical management of COVID-19, leading to lower infection-fatality ratios—substantial progress has already been made through a combination of effective drugs, such as Dexamethasone and Remdesivir, and changes in clinical management.
  • “Public confidence that there aren’t significant long-term health consequences for those who recover from COVID-19.”

Finally, McKinsey notes that “Both the epidemiological and normalcy ends to the COVID-19 pandemic are important. The transition to the next normal will mark an important social and economic milestone, and herd immunity will be a more definitive end to the pandemic. In the United States, while the transition to normal might be accomplished sooner, the epidemiological end point looks most likely to be reached in the second half of 2021.”

It is not clear when clinical laboratories and pathologists will know for certain when the pandemic’s end point has been reached. Predictions coming from sources such as McKinsey’s latest report may be as close as we get to a crystal ball view of the pandemic’s future.

—Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

When Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End?

International Study How Many People Will Take COVID-19 Vaccine

Pandemic Will Not End for Anyone Until it Ends for Everyone

No One Said It Would Be Easy

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