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Study Finds Smartphones Can Be as Accurate as Pulse Oximeters at Reading Blood-Oxygen Saturation

Technology could enable patients to monitor their own oxygen levels and transmit that data to healthcare providers, including clinical laboratories

Clinical laboratories may soon have a new data point to add to their laboratory information system (LIS) for doctors to review. Researchers have determined that smartphones can read blood-oxygen levels as accurately as purpose-built pulse oximeters.

Conducted by researchers at the University of Washington (UW) and University of California San Diego (UC San Diego), the proof-of-concept study found that an unmodified smartphone camera and flash along with an app is “capable of detecting blood oxygen saturation levels down to 70%. This is the lowest value that pulse oximeters should be able to measure, as recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration,” according to Digital Health News.

This could mean that patients at risk of hypoxemia, or who are suffering a respiratory illness such as COVID-19, could eventually add accurate blood-oxygen saturation (SpO2) readings to their lab test results at any time and from any location.

The researchers published their findings in the journal NPJ Digital Medicine titled, “Smartphone Camera Oximetry in an Induced Hypoxemia Study.”

“In an ideal world, this information could be seamlessly transmitted to a doctor’s office. This would be really beneficial for telemedicine appointments or for triage nurses to be able to quickly determine whether patients need to go to the emergency department or if they can continue to rest at home and make an appointment with their primary care provider later,” Matthew Thompson, DPhil, Professor of Global Health and Family Medicine at University of Washington, told Digital Health News. Clinical laboratories may soon have a new data point for their laboratory information systems. (Photo copyright. University of Washington.)

UW/UC San Diego Study Details

The researchers studied three men and three women, ages 20-34. All were Caucasian except for one African American, Digital Health News reported. To conduct the study, a standard pulse oximeter was placed on a finger and, on the same hand, another of the participant’s fingers was placed over a smartphone camera.

“We performed the first clinical development validation on a smartphone camera-based SpO2 sensing system using a varied fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) protocol, creating a clinically relevant validation dataset for solely smartphone-based contact PPG [photoplethysmography] methods on a wider range of SpO2 values (70–100%) than prior studies (85–100%). We built a deep learning model using this data to demonstrate an overall MAE [Mean Absolute Error] = 5.00% SpO2 while identifying positive cases of low SpO2 < 90% with 81% sensitivity and 79% specificity,” the researchers wrote in NPJ Digital Medicine.

When the smartphone camera’s flash passes light through the finger, “a deep-learning algorithm deciphers the blood oxygen levels.” Participants were also breathing in “a controlled mixture of oxygen and nitrogen to slowly reduce oxygen levels,” Digital Health News reported.

“The camera is recording a video: Every time your heart beats, fresh blood flows through the part illuminated by the flash,” Edward Wang, PhD, Assistant Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering at UC San Diego and senior author of the project, told Digital Health News. Wang started this project as a UW doctoral student studying electrical and computer engineering and now directs the UC San Diego DigiHealth Lab.

“The camera records how much that blood absorbs the light from the flash in each of the three color channels it measures: red, green, and blue. Then we can feed those intensity measurements into our deep-learning model,” he added.

The deep learning algorithm “pulled out the blood oxygen levels. The remainder of the data was used to validate the method and then test it to see how well it performed on new subjects,” Digital Health News reported.

“Smartphone light can get scattered by all these other components in your finger, which means there’s a lot of noise in the data that we’re looking at,” Varun Viswanath, co-lead author in the study, told Digital Health News. Viswanath is a UW alumnus who is now a doctoral student being advised by Wang at UC San Diego.

“Deep learning is a really helpful technique here because it can see these really complex and nuanced features and helps you find patterns that you wouldn’t otherwise be able to see,” he added.

Each round of testing took approximately 15 minutes. In total the researchers gathered more than 10,000 blood oxygen readings. Levels ranged from 61% to 100%.

“The smartphone correctly predicted whether the subject had low blood oxygen levels 80% of the time,” Digital Health News reported.

Smartphones Accurately Collecting Data

The UW/UC San Diego study is the first to show such precise results using a smartphone.

“Other smartphone apps that do this were developed by asking people to hold their breath. But people get very uncomfortable and have to breathe after a minute or so, and that’s before their blood-oxygen levels have gone down far enough to represent the full range of clinically relevant data,” said Jason Hoffman, a PhD student researcher at UW’s UbiComp Lab and co-lead author of the study.

The ability to track a full 15 minutes of data is a prime example of improvement. “Our data shows that smartphones could work well right in the critical threshold range,” Hoffman added.

“Smartphone-based SpO2 monitors, especially those that rely only on built-in hardware with no modifications, present an opportunity to detect and monitor respiratory conditions in contexts where pulse oximeters are less available,” the researchers wrote.

“This way you could have multiple measurements with your own device at either no cost or low cost,” Matthew Thompson, DPhil, Professor of Global Health and Family Medicine at University of Washington, told Digital Health News. Thompson is a professor of both family medicine and global health and an adjunct professor of pediatrics at the UW School of Medicine.

What Comes Next

The UW/UC San Diego research team plans to continue its research and gather more diversity among subjects.

“It’s so important to do a study like this,” Wang said. “Traditional medical devices go through rigorous testing. But computer science research is still just starting to dig its teeth into using machine learning for biomedical device development and we’re all still learning. By forcing ourselves to be rigorous, we’re forcing ourselves to learn how to do things right.”

Though no current clinical laboratory application is pending, smartphone use to capture biometrics for testing is increasing. Soon, labs may need a way to input all that data into their laboratory information systems. It’s something to consider.

—Kristin Althea O’Connor

Related Information:

A Smartphone’s Camera and Flash could Help People Measure Blood Oxygen Levels at Home

Smartphones Can Measure Blood Oxygen Levels at Home

Smartphone’s Camera, Flash, Can Measure Blood Oxygen Up to 70% at Home

Smartphone Camera Oximetry in an Induced Hypoxemia Study

McMaster University Uses AI Algorithm, Machine Learning to Find Antibiotic That Neutralizes Common Antimicrobial Resistant Superbug

Further development of this novel technology could result in new, more sensitive assays for clinical laboratories to use in the effort to improve antimicrobial stewardship in hospitals

Researchers at McMaster University in Ontario, Canada, have used artificial intelligence (AI) to identify a potential antibiotic that neutralizes the drug-resistant bacteria Acinetobacter baumannii, an antibiotic resistant pathogen commonly found in many hospitals. This will be of interest to clinical laboratory managers and microbiologists involved in identifying strains of bacteria to determine if they are antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) superbugs.

Using machine learning, the scientists screened thousands molecules to look for those that inhibited the growth of this specific pathogen. And they succeeded.

“We trained a neural network with this growth inhibition dataset and performed in silico predictions for structurally new molecules with activity against A. baumannii,” the researchers wrote in their published study.

They discovered that the molecule abaucin inhibited the growth of the antibiotic-resistant pathogen in vitro.

This shows how machine learning and AI technologies are giving biomedical researchers  tools to identify new therapeutic drugs that are effective against drug-resistant strains of bacteria. This same research can be expected to lead to new clinical laboratory assays that determine if superbugs can be attacked by specific therapeutic drugs.

The researchers published their findings in the journal Nature Chemical Biology titled, “Deep Learning-Guided Discovery of an Antibiotic Targeting Acinetobacter Baumannii.”

“When I think about AI in general, I think of these models as things that are just going to help us do the thing we’re going to do better,” Jonathan Stokes, PhD, Assistant Professor of Biomedicine and Biochemistry at McMaster University in Ontario, Canada, and lead author of the study, told USA Today. Clinical laboratory scientists and microbiologists will be encouraged by the McMaster University scientists’ findings. (Photo copyright: McMaster University.)

McMaster Study Details

Jonathan Stokes, PhD, head of the Stokes Laboratory at McMaster University, is Assistant Professor of Biomedicine/Biochemistry at McMaster and lead author of the study. Stokes’ team worked with researchers from the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard to explore the effectiveness of AI in combating superbugs, USA Today reported.

“This work highlights the utility of machine learning in antibiotic discovery and describes a promising lead with targeted activity against a challenging Gram-negative pathogen,” the researchers wrote in Nature Chemical Biology.

Stokes Lab utilized the high-throughput drug screening technique, spending weeks growing and exposing Acinetobacter baumannii to more than 7,500 agents of drugs and active ingredients of drugs. When 480 compounds were uncovered that blocked the growth of bacteria, this information was then provided to a computer that was trained to run an AI algorithm, CNN reported.

“Once we had our [machine learning] model trained, what we could do then is start showing that model brand-new pictures of chemicals that it had never seen, right? And based on what it had learned during training, it would predict for us whether those molecules were antibacterial or not,” Stokes told CNN.

The model spent hours screening more than 6,000 molecules. It then narrowed the search to 240 chemicals, which were tested in the lab. The scientists pared down the results to the nine most effective inhibitors of bacteria. They then eliminated those that were either related to existing antibiotics or might be considered dangerous.

The researchers found one compound—RS102895 (abaucin)—which, according to Stokes, was likely created to treat diabetes, CNN reported. The scientists discovered that the compound prevented bacterial components from making their way from inside a cell to the cell’s surface.

“It’s a rather interesting mechanism and one that is not observed amongst clinical antibiotics so far as I know,” Stokes told CNN.

Because of the effectiveness of the antibiotic during testing on mice skin, the researchers believe this method may be useful for creating antibiotics custom made to battle additional drug resistant pathogens, CNN noted.

Defeating a ‘Professional Pathogen’

Acinetobacter baumannii (A. baumannii)—the focus of Stoke’s study—is often found on hospital counters and doorknobs and has a sneaky way of using other organisms’ DNA to resist antibiotic treatment, according to CNN

“It’s what we call in the laboratory a professional pathogen,” Stokes told CNN.

A. baumannii causes infections in the urinary tract, lungs, and blood and typically wreaks havoc to vulnerable patients on breathing machines, in intensive care units, or undergoing surgery, USA Today reported.

A. baumannii is resistant to carbapenem, a potent antibiotic. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that in 2017 the bacteria infected 8,500 people in hospitals, 700 of those infections being fatal.

Further, in its 2019 “Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States” report, the CDC stated that one out of every four patients infected with the bacteria died within one month of their diagnosis. The federal agency deemed the bacteria “of greatest need” for new antibiotics.

Thus, finding a way to defeat this particularly nasty bacteria could save many lives.

Implications of Study Findings on Development of new Antibiotics

The Stokes Laboratory study findings show promise. If more antibiotics worked so precisely, it’s possible bacteria would not have a chance to become resistant in the first place, CNN reported.

Next steps in Stokes’ research include optimizing the chemical structure and testing in larger animals or humans, USA Today reported.

“It’s important to remember [that] when we’re trying to develop a drug, it doesn’t just have to kill the bacterium,” Stokes noted. “It also has to be well tolerated in humans and it has to get to the infection site and stay at the infection site long enough to elicit an effect,” USA Today reported.

Stokes’ study is a prime example of how AI can make a big impact in clinical laboratory diagnostics and treatment.

“We know broad-spectrum antibiotics are suboptimal and that pathogens have the ability to evolve and adjust to every trick we throw at them … AI methods afford us the opportunity to vastly increase the rate at which we discover new antibiotics, and we can do it at a reduced cost. This is an important avenue of exploration for new antibiotic drugs,” Stokes told CNN.

Clinical laboratory managers and microbiologists may want to keep an open-mind about the use of AI in drug development. More research is needed to give substance to the McMaster University study’s findings. But the positive results may lead to methods for fine tuning existing antibiotics to better combat antimicrobial-resistant bacteria, USA Today reported.

—Kristin Althea O’Connor

Related Information:

The Study: Deep Learning-Guided Discovery of an Antibiotic Targeting Acinetobacter Baumannii

Scientists Use AI to Discover Antibiotic to Fight Deadly Hospital Bug

A New Type of Antibiotic, Discovered with Artificial Intelligence, May Defeat a Dangerous Superbug

WHO Report: Bacteria for Which New Antibiotics are Urgently Needed

Abstract on Deaths of Those Infected with Acinetobacter

CDC: Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States

CDC: Acinetobacter in Healthcare Settings

Home Ice: Star Researcher Back at Mac to Pioneer Use of AI to Fight Antibiotic Resistance

Private Healthcare on Rise as Britain’s Public Healthcare System Faces Horrific Conditions, Walkouts

Challenges abound as the NHS tries to recover before UK citizens move to private insurance; some patients have wait times of up to six months for a histopathology diagnosis of cancer

Britain’s National Health Service (NHS) is in dire straits. The UK’s vaunted state-run healthcare system is overrun with appallingly poor conditions, impossibly long wait times, diminished care, and multiple walk-outs in various medical fields that Dark Daily reported on last week in “British Junior Doctors Stage Four-Day Walkout Demanding Increased Pay and Better Working Conditions.”

As we noted, thousands of clinical laboratory tests and surgical pathology readings had to be delayed or cancelled due to the strikes.

An NHS worker in a Liverpool hospital told CNN that conditions felt like a “war zone” with patients being treated in the backs of ambulances, corridors, waiting rooms, cupboards, or not at all since hospitals are well over capacity.

As a result, UK residents are increasingly bypassing the long wait times for the NHS’ “free” healthcare and instead paying out of pocket for private health insurance, CNN reported in “Why is Britain’s Health Service, a Much-loved National Treasure, Falling Apart?

Chris Thomas

“Those who can afford to get private insurance are,” Chris Thomas (above), told The Guardian. Thomas is Head of the Commission on Health and Prosperity for UK progressive policy think tank the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). “People are not opting out of the NHS because they have stopped believing in it as the best and fairest model of healthcare,” he said. “Rather, those who can afford it are being forced to go private … and those without the funds are left to ‘put up or shut up.’” (Photo copyright: Institute for Public Policy Research.)

Two-Tier System Could Become UK’s Norm, Dividing Classes

The drive towards private insurance is leaving Britain on the brink of having a “two-tier” system where the NHS is overpowered by private healthcare. And it’s not an unwarranted fear. One in six people in Britain are prepared to use private healthcare instead of waiting for the NHS, The Guardian reported.

A report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) claims a UK two-tiered system would not mimic what we have here in the US. Rather, if the trend continues in the private direction, it would more likely be comparable to dentistry in England, “… where poor NHS access exists for some and superior but expensive access exists for many. We stand at the precipice of a growing ‘opt-out’ by those who can,” according to the IPPR report, The Guardian noted.

More importantly, this could further divide classes. “Such a trend could threaten the deep and widespread public support for the NHS among voters and leave millions of patients vulnerable because of their ethnicity, postcode, income or job,” The Guardian noted the IPPR report as saying.

In an op-ed she penned for CNN, titled, “We Can Barely Breathe. How Did Britain’s Treasured NHS Get So Sick?” Internal Medicine Junior Doctor for NHS in South East England, Roopa Farooki, MD, described the conditions her son witnessed when he arrived at her ER with a shoulder injury on one of her days off.

“It’s different when you see your everyday reality though naïve eyes. He saw the elderly patients on the jigsaw of trolleys crammed into the department, pushed against the wall, squeezed in the gap between the bed and nursing stations.

“He saw the fluids hanging from rails where we had no stands, lines running into the patient’s forearms. He saw the oxygen fed into their noses from cylinders propped along the bed, the cacophony of beeping machines and alarms.

“It doesn’t look like it does on the TV. It doesn’t even look like it does on reality TV,” she wrote.

The healthcare statistics are alarming. According to CNN:

  • There was a 20% increase in excess deaths the final week of December 2022, compared to the previous five years.
  • Half of patients waiting for emergency care that month waited for more than four hours, which was a record.
  • Also in December, 54,000 people waited more than 12 hours for emergency admission. The wait was “virtually zero” prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • And “category 2” conditions, such as a stroke or heart attack, had a more than 90-minute wait time for ambulance attendance. The target response time is 18 minutes.

Dim Hopes for Improvement

Though the NHS has struggled in recent years, the challenges are seemingly worse now. “This time feels different. It’s never been as bad as this,” gastroenterologist Peter Neville, MD, a consultant physician who worked with the NHS since 1989, told CNN.

CNN noted that a perfect storm of challenges might have brought the NHS to where it is today. COVID-19, flu seasons paired with COVID, lack of financial support, lack of social support, staffing and morale issues are just some of the problems that the NHS must address.

Experts point out that as the NHS’ struggles increase so begins a loop where one problem feeds another. Patients who wait to be seen have treatments that take longer, then they get sicker, and the cycle continues.

Despite having one of the highest proportions of government healthcare spending on Earth, up to 40% of Britons report having accessed or plan to access private care, Breitbart reported.

Sadly, it’s unlikely enough cash will come in from the UK government to make significant improvements for the NHS. The budget announcement in November showed the NHS was to get an average 2% spending increase over the next two years, CNN reported.

Are there lessons here for US hospitals, clinical laboratories, and pathology groups? Perhaps. It’s always instructive to see how our fellow healthcare providers across the pond respond to public pressure for more access to quality care.

—Kristin Althea O’Connor

Related Information:

Why is Britain’s Health Service, a Much-Loved National Treasure, Falling Apart

Private Healthcare Boom Adds to Fears of Two-Tier System in UK

IPPR Report: The State Of Health and Care 2022

Opinion: ‘We Can Barely Breathe,’ How did Britain’s Treasured NHS Get So Sick?

Britons Flock to Private Doctors as Socialized Healthcare Fails to Deliver on Time

British Junior Doctors Stage Four-Day Walkout Demanding Increased Pay and Better Working Conditions

Early Appearance of RSV Cases, Combined with Influenza and COVID-19, Raises Concern about Possibility of a Tripledemic During This Flu Season

Experts advise clinical laboratories to prepare now for a marked increase in demand for RSV, COVID-19, and influenza testing

Are the COVID-19 lockdowns responsible for the increase in cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)? Some physicians believe that may be the case and it has hospitals, clinical laboratories, and pathology groups scrambling to prepare for a possible “tripledemic,” according to UC Davis Health.

The addition of RSV as we move into what is predicted to be a bad influenza (flu) season has prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to issue a Health Alert Network (HAN) advisory which states, “Co-circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza viruses, SARS-CoV-2, and others could place stress on healthcare systems this fall and winter.” This is especially true of clinical laboratories that still struggle to keep pace with demand for COVID-19 testing.

Dean Blumberg, MD

“COVID cases are expected to rise during the winter. This will be occurring at the same time we expect to see influenza rates increase while we are already seeing an early start to RSV season,” said Dean Blumberg, MD (above), chief of pediatric infectious diseases at UC Davis Children’s Hospital. “With all three viruses on the rise, we are worried about an increase in the rates of viral infection that may lead to an increase in hospitalizations.” Clinical laboratories should prepare for a marked increase in demand for RSV testing, as well as COVID-19 and influenza. (Photo copyright: UC Davis Health.)

Masking, Lockdowns, and Social Distancing Could be Responsible

Every winter in the United States, outbreaks of the flu and RSV occur. However, this year the RSV outbreak appears to be more serious. The CDC warns that “surveillance has shown an increase in RSV detections and RSV-associated emergency department visits and hospitalizations in multiple US regions, with some regions nearing seasonal peak levels.”

The current spread of RSV infections taking place in the US varies from prior outbreaks in notable ways:

  • Incidents are happening in the fall, whereas RSV outbreaks usually peak starting in late December.
  • Older children as well as infants are being hospitalized.
  • Current cases appear to be more severe.
  • Episodes are rising at a time when pediatric hospitalizations are already higher than usual due to other illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and biennial enteroviruses.

Some experts believe that masking and social distancing due to the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a respite of RSV infections in 2020. However, cases intensified in 2021, most likely a result of fewer young children being exposed to RSV during the previous year.

Most children typically have had at least one RSV infection before the age of two and the illness becomes less troublesome as children get older.

“The theory is that everyone’s now back together and this is a rebound phenomenon,” Jeffrey Kline, MD, Associate Chair of Research, Wayne State University School of Medicine in Detroit, told MarketWatch. “If we think about the relative increase—ninefold increase—that’s not nothing, especially in the pediatric [emergency departments]. Holy mackerel.”

Most RSV Infected Children Require Hospitalization

Kline is in charge of a surveillance network that aggregates information regarding incidents of viral infections from 70 US hospitals. The data shows that more children are being hospitalized with COVID-19 than with RSV, but that 5% of children are testing positive for both illnesses. About 60% of children in that group require hospitalization.

According to the CDC, individuals with RSV will typically begin to experience symptoms within four to six days after getting infected. Symptoms of RSV, which tend to appear in stages, include:

  • Runny nose
  • Decrease in appetite
  • Coughing
  • Sneezing
  • Fever
  • Wheezing

“RSV causes a mild cold illness in most people. But it can be very dangerous for very young children and older adults. And young infants are usually the most at risk of hospitalizations in what physicians would call their first RSV season,” said Andrea Garcia, JD, Vice President, Medicine and Public Health, American Medical Association (AMA), in a November 2 AMA update on the current flu season.

“In a pre-pandemic year,” she added, “we would see 1% to 2% of babies younger than six months with an RSV infection maybe needing to be hospitalized. And virtually all children have gotten an RSV infection by the time they’re two-years-old.”

Infants are at a much higher risk of experiencing severe disease due to RSV because their immune systems are not fully developed, and those under six months old are unable to breathe through their mouths if they are congested. 

“Age by itself is a risk factor for more severe disease, meaning that the younger babies are usually the ones that are sick-sick,” Asuncion Mejias, MD, PhD, a principal investigator with the Center for Vaccines and Immunity at the Abigail Wexner Research Institute, Nationwide Children’s Hospital, in Columbus, Ohio, told MarketWatch. “We are also seeing older kids, probably because they were not exposed to RSV the previous season.”

Mejias is studying whether prior exposure to COVID-19 alters how a baby’s immune system reacts to RSV, and if it may lead to more severe illness in those babies. 

“That is something to work on and understand,” she said.

Comorbidities and Compromised Immune Systems also a Factor

Older adults and adults with weakened immune systems are predisposed to RSV infections, but there are things people can do to mitigate their chances of becoming ill from RSV.

“[RSV] is spread through contact with droplets from the nose and throat of infected people when they cough or sneeze. It can also be spread through respiratory secretions on surfaces,” said Garcia in the AMA update. “So, it’s a really good idea to clean and disinfect surfaces, especially in areas where young children are constantly touching things. Handwashing is always important. And if you are sick, please stay home.”

She added, “Premature infants, children with certain medical conditions, are also eligible to take a monthly monoclonal antibody treatment during RSV season, and that can help them stay out of the hospital.”

Most RSV infections typically go away on their own within a week or two. But such infections can lead to more severe illnesses, such as bronchiolitis and pneumonia. The more serious cases may require hospitalization with additional oxygen, IV fluids, and even intubation with mechanical ventilation. In most cases, hospitalization only lasts a few days, according to the CDC.

Be Prepared for a Tripledemic

“Health officials are concerned that this could be a sign of what’s to come,” stated Garcia in the AMA update. “A difficult winter, with multiple respiratory viruses circulating.”

For clinical laboratory managers, the early arrival of RSV cases at the front end of this influenza season provides an opportunity to position their labs to better meet the demand for RSV testing. They should also advise their client physicians that there may be a surge of respiratory illnesses during this flu season.

JP Schlingman

Related Information:

“Tripledemic” in US Could Bring Deluge of Patients to Hospitals

When COVID-19, Flu and RSV Meet. The Potential for a Tripledemic.

A Tripledemic Expected This Winter

CDC HAN Alert: Increased Respiratory Virus Activity, Especially Among Children, Early in the 2022-2023 Fall and Winter

CDC: Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection (RSV)

6-Year-Old with RSV Dies as Hospitals See Alarming Rise in New Virus Cases

COVID-19 May Be to Blame for the Surge in RSV Illness Among Children. Here’s Why.

Influenza, COVID, and RSV Cases Continue to Rise with Andrea Garcia, JD, MPH

COVID-19 vs. Flu vs. RSV: How to Tell the Difference Between Respiratory Infections

Pandemic ‘Immunity Gap’ is Probably Behind Surge in RSV Cases, Scientists Say

R.S.V. Cases Are Rising. Here’s What You Need to Know

Australia’s Severe Flu Season Could be a Harbinger of Increased Influenza Cases in US and Canada Straining Already Burdened Clinical Laboratories

End of social distancing, masking, and other COVID-19 pandemic mitigations may lead to more severe flu-like infections in northern hemisphere, experts say

Clinical laboratory professionals in the United States and Canada should prepare now for a severe flu season. That is according to infectious disease experts at Johns Hopkin’s Center for Health Security who predict the rise in influenza (flu) cases in Australia signals what will likely be higher than normal numbers of flu-like infections starting this fall in the Northern Hemisphere.

As a Southern Hemisphere nation, Australia experiences winter from June through August. The land down under just concluded its worst flu season in five years. The flu arrived earlier than usual and was severe. Surveillance reports from the Aussie government’s Department of Health and Aged Care noted that influenza-like illness (ILI) peaked in May and June, but that starting in mid-April 2022 the weekly number of flu cases exceeded the five-year average.

If the same increase in flu cases happens here, healthcare systems and clinical laboratories already burdened with continuing COVID-19 testing and increasing demand for monkeypox testing could find the strain unbearable.

Amesh Adalja, MD

Amesh Adalja, MD (above), Infectious Disease Expert and Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkin’s Center for Health Security, told Prevention that Australia’s flu season is typically a harbinger of what will follow in the US, Canada, and other Northern Hemisphere countries. “The planet has two hemispheres which have opposite respiratory viral seasons,” he said. “Therefore, Australia’s flu season—which is just ending—is often predictive of what will happen in the Northern Hemisphere.” Clinical laboratories in the United States should review their preparations as North America enters its influenza season. (Photo copyright: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)

Consequences of Decline in Flu Vaccinations and Social Distancing, Masks

The New York Times noted that in 2017, when Australia suffered through its worst flu season since modern surveillance techniques were adopted, the US experienced a deadly 2017-2018 flu season a half-year later that took an estimated 79,000 lives.

While the number of flu cases in this country is currently low, according to the weekly US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) “Flu View,” that is expected to change as temperatures cool.

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, influenza was nearly nonexistent. Pandemic-mitigation efforts such as masking, social distancing, and quarantining slowed the spread of the annual respiratory illness. But pandemic mitigation efforts are no longer the norm.

“Many have stopped masking,” said Abinash Virk MD, an Infectious Diseases Specialist at Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, in a Mayo Clinic news blog that urged patients to get vaccinated for flu. “For the large part, we will see the re-emergence of influenza in the winter. In comparison, in 2020 winter … there was literally no influenza. But now that has all changed.”

Diminished Immunity Will Lead to More Severe Flu Cases

A CDC report published in July also noted that last winter’s flu season broke from the traditional pattern of arrival of the flu in the fall followed by a peak in cases in February.

During the 2021-22 season, influenza activity began to increase in November and remained elevated until mid-June. It featured two distinct waves, with A(H3N2) viruses predominating for the entire season. But the overall case counts were the lowest in at least 25 years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic.

Thomas Russo, MD, Professor and Chief of Infectious Disease at the University at Buffalo in New York, said the past two mild flu seasons could set the stage for a difficult year in 2022-23.

“Immunity to respiratory viruses, including the flu, wanes over time,” Russo told Prevention. “People have not seen the virus naturally for a couple of years and many individuals don’t get the flu vaccine.” That, he says, raises the risk that people who are unvaccinated against the flu will develop more severe cases if they do happen to get infected.

“People are interacting closely again and there are very few mandates,” he added. “That’s a set-up for increased transmission of influenza and other respiratory viruses.”

Anthony Fauci, MD, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), warns the US could see higher than normal rates of influenza while COVID-19 is still circulating widely.

“The Southern Hemisphere has had a pretty bad flu season, and it came on early,” Fauci, told Bloomberg in late August. “Influenza, as we all have experienced over many years, can be a serious disease, particularly when you have a bad season.”

CNN reported that US government modeling predicts flu will peak this year in early December.

CDC Advises Public to Get Flu Vaccine

Because COVID-19 and Influenza have many symptoms in common, such as fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, sore throat, runny nose, headache, and muscle aches, the Mayo Clinic points out on its blog that testing is the only way to discern between the two when symptoms overlap.

According to the CDC, the best way to reduce risk from seasonal flu and its potentially serious complications is to get vaccinated every year. The best time to get vaccinated for the flu is in September and October before the flu starts spreading in communities, the CDC states. However, vaccination after October can still provide protection during the peak of flu season.

Yet, many people fail to get the flu vaccine even though it is recommended for everyone over the age of six months. CNN reported that just 45% of Americans got their flu shots last season. Flu vaccination rates fell for several at-risk groups, including pregnant women and children.

Though flu seasons are often unpredictable, clinical laboratories should prepare now for an influx of influenza test specimens and higher case rates than the past two pandemic-lightened flu seasons. Coupled with COVID-19 and monkeypox testing, already strained supply lines may be disrupted.

—Andrea Downing Peck

Related Information:

Frequently Asked Influenza (Flu) Questions: 2022-2023 Season

Weekly US Influenza Surveillance Report

Australia Just Had a Bad Flu Season. That May Be a Warning for the US

Experts Are Predicting a Bad 2022-2023 Flu Season: How to Prepare Now

Australian Influenza Surveillance Report No 07-Fortnight Ending 03 July 2022

Fauci Warns of a Bad Flu Season Brewing as He Nears Office Exit

Australia’s Tough Flu Season Could Spell Trouble for the US This Winter, Especially with COVID-19 in the Mix

Expect a Different Flu Season: Why You’ll Want to Be Vaccinated for Flu

Influenza Activity and Composition of the 2022–23 Influenza Vaccine—United States, 2021–22 Season

Prevent Seasonal Flu

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