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Clinical Laboratories and Pathology Groups

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CMS’ Latest Value-Based Care Reimbursement Model Explores Geographic Direct Contracting for Medicare, Focuses on Costs and Quality

Physicians engaged with CMS in value-based care are asking clinical laboratories to help them close gaps in patient care through testing  

Clinical laboratories know that any change to how the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) reimburses healthcare providers could also affect how labs are reimbursed for services they provide. Thus, lab leaders will want to take note of the latest value-based reimbursement model being tested by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation at CMS.

Called the Geographic Direct Contracting Model (GEO), CMS’ new “voluntary payment model” aims at giving providers of Medicare Part A and Part B services “a direct incentive to improve care across entire geographic regions,” according to a CMS press release.

“The Geographic Direct Contracting Model is part of the Innovation Center’s suite of Direct Contracting models and is one of the Center’s largest bets to date on value-based care,” Brad Smith, Deputy Administrator and Director of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI), told RevCycleIntelligence. Smith is also the former CEO and co-founder of Aspire Health.

According to a CMS Fact Sheet, the GEO model “will test whether a geographic-based approach to value-based care can improve quality of care and reduce costs for Medicare beneficiaries across an entire geographic region.”

“This model allows participating entities to build integrated relationships with healthcare providers and invest in population health in a region to better coordinate care, improve quality, and lower the cost of care for Medicare beneficiaries in a community, said CMS Administrator Seema Verma in the CMS press release. Clinical laboratories may find opportunities as well, to collaborate with physicians in the clinical decision-making process. (Photo copyright: Business Insider.)

CMS Continues to Move Away from Fee-for-Service

Years ago in “CMS Seeks ‘New Direction’ for its Innovation Center as the Agency Evaluates Current Value-Based Payment Models for Medicare Services, including Medical Laboratory Testing,” Dark Daily alerted readers that CMS was planning to offer different models of value-based care and that medical laboratory revenues could be affected as the federal agency aims to move reimbursement for healthcare—including clinical laboratory testing—away from the fee-for-service payment model.

“Leveraging best practices and lessons learned from prior Innovation Center models, Geo will enable Direct Contracting Entities (DCEs) to build integrated relationships with healthcare providers and community organizations in a region to better coordinate care and address the clinical and social needs of Medicare beneficiaries,” the CMS Fact Sheet states.

“If we’re successful, we’ll move value-based care from something that might be 10 or 20% of somebody’s revenue to something that’s 80 or hopefully 100% of somebody’s revenue (in five to 10 years),” Smith told MedPage Today.

Healthcare providers and health plans that participate in the Geographic Direct Contracting model must be covered entities under the Health Insurance and Portability Accountability Act (HIPAA) and submit applications by April 2, 2021, the CMS fact sheet states.

 The first performance period starts Jan. 1, 2022, and participation is voluntary. Direct contracting entities take “100% shared savings and shared losses for Medicare Part A and B services for aligned Medicare fee for service beneficiaries in a defined region,” the CMS fact sheet explained.

CMS is considering implementing the GEO model in Atlanta, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, Orlando, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Riverside, San Diego, and Tampa.

“By initially testing the model in a small number of geographies, we will be able to thoughtfully learn how these flexibilities are able to impact quality and costs,” Smith told RevCycleIntelligence.

How Will Value-Based Care Programs Affect Clinical Laboratories?

Value-based payment arrangements require doctors to accept changes to how they are reimbursed for their services. In kind, doctors are examining how clinical laboratories can take on an enhanced role in clinical decision making.

“Physicians and hospitals in a value-based environment need a different level of service and professional consultation from the lab and pathology group because they are being incented to detect disease earlier and be active in managing patients with chronic conditions to keep them healthy and out of the hospital,” said Robert Michel, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of Dark Daily and its sister publication The Dark Report.

Michel explained that value-based care providers are calling on labs to go beyond reporting accurate test results within allotted turnaround times. “They want collaboration in identifying at-risk patients and in finding and closing gaps in care by using laboratory test results.”

Medical laboratory leaders may want to reach out to healthcare providers participating in value-based care models to explore areas of interest relating to patient population, chronic conditions, and severity of illness. 

As Dark Daily reported in “Repositioning the Clinical Laboratory as a Strategic Pillar of the Value-Based Healthcare Organization, Consistent with Clinical Lab 2.0,” labs need to be effective and efficient performers in integrated delivery networks and play a critical role in coordinating care.

Clinical laboratories that offer testing and reporting and additionally collaborate with healthcare providers and health plans in ways that contribute to improved patient outcomes and lowered costs, may be in a position to earn any financial rewards from these and other new value-based arrangements.

—Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

CMS Announces New Model to Advance Regional Value-Based Care in Medicare

CMS Announces a New Value-Based Direct Contracting Model

CMMI Expanding Direct Contracting, Advancing Other New Models

Facts: Geographic Direct Contracting Model “Geo”

Changes Coming to Bundled Payments and Direct Contracting, CMMI Chief Says

CMS Seeks New Direction for Its Innovation Center as the Agency Evaluates Current Value-Based Payment Models for Medicare Services Including Medical Laboratory Testing

Repositioning the Clinical Laboratory as a Strategic Pillar of the Value-Based Healthcare Organization Consistent with Clinical Lab 2.0

University of Kansas Health System Laboratory Shares Lessons from Assessing Pooled Testing for COVID-19 Patients

Available funds and disease prevalence affect whether pooled testing is feasible and desirable, notes University of Kansas Health System microbiology laboratory director

Pooled testing for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has its supporters and its critics. There is no one-size-fits-all when it comes to pooling multiple patients’ biological samples into a single COVID-19 test in the hopes that the result will be all negative. Several factors must be in place for COVID-19 pooled testing to be viable at individual clinical laboratories. The experience of medical labs that considered doing pooled testing are informative.

For example, when Rachael Liesman, PhD, Director of Microbiology in Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at the University of Kansas Health System in Kansas City, researched developing a plan for pooled testing of COVID-19 patients for her health system, she found the strategy less than ideal for two reasons:

  • First was the rate of infection in the population being tested. If the rate was too high, pooled testing produced too many positive results, making the process impractical.
  • Second was the need for expensive automated equipment in the microbiology laboratory, the funding to buy that equipment, and the room to accommodate it.

Last summer, as Liesman and her microbiology lab staff were evaluating pooled testing, she spoke with Dark Daily’s sister publication The Dark Report. “We were trying to decide whether pooled testing really would save us anything,” she said in the exclusive interview. “We were looking at the barriers and trying to understand what we’d gain and what we’d lose.”

Deciding Against Pooled Testing at University of Kansas Health System

After careful consideration, the lab staff stopped considering pooled testing due to increased prevalence in the community, Liesman said in December. “Our positivity rate is double what we were seeing in the summer,” she noted.

“Of course, the biggest challenge with pooling specimens is you have to have a patient population that has a low enough virus prevalence to make it worth your time,” she noted. “For us, there may be some patient populations that have a low enough level of prevalence, but not enough to make pooling feasible.”

University of Kansas Health System’s microbiology laboratory has been running 800 to 1,000 COVID-19 molecular tests 24 hours a day, seven days a week, although the lab runs fewer tests on the weekends. On Jan. 8, the number of new coronavirus cases in Kansas was at 1,780 per million, according to the COVID Tracking Project (CTP). That was about the highest rate since the pandemic began early in the year.

Rachael Liesman, PhD smiling headshot
“Pooling makes a lot of sense for massive high-volume reference labs. I don’t have the capacity to run 6,000 specimens a day through my lab,” noted Rachael Liesman, PhD (above), Director of Microbiology in Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at the University of Kansas Health System, in an exclusive interview with The Dark Report. Not all clinical laboratories can or should consider pooled testing, which Dark Daily noted in previous e-briefings. (Photo copyright: Twitter.)

“One of the challenges in any lab is when you get specimens arriving in volume of say 100 or 200 specimens every few hours,” Liesman explained. “When that happens, you have to determine rapidly which of those specimens you would want to pool and which of them you wouldn’t pool. Or, if you had the right circumstances, you could pool all of them.

“You might have asymptomatic patients in one group and symptomatic patients in another group. So, then you could put all samples from one group into a pool. But if you’re not set up that way, just figuring that part out could be really time consuming,” she noted.

“Another challenge,” Liesman added, “is if your laboratory doesn’t have liquid handlers, which are the instruments that do the pooling for you.”

Manual versus Automated Pooling

In a clinical laboratory without liquid handlers, the task of pooling is not automated and instead requires staff to do the work manually—one specimen and one pool at a time.

Without the right equipment, Liesman noted, somebody in the lab must physically take five tubes and combine them in into one tube. And that one person has to ensure the test tube of pooled specimens is appropriately stickered. Then, once that is completed, the information must be input into the laboratory information system (LIS).

“We have a liquid handler because we purchased one from Hamilton specifically for COVID testing. But getting all that information into the computer system can take a lot of time,” she said. “A lot of labs don’t have access to this type of instrumentation, which means the process becomes very hands-on.

“We already see repetitive-use injuries, and if many of your staff are spending their eight-hour shifts doing pipetting motions, then they’re at greater risk for repetitive-use injury,” she added.

In addition, having humans doing repetitive motions in a clinical laboratory increases the risk of specimen-handling errors such as tubes being mislabeled or misplaced. “Those mistakes are very hard to find,” Liesman noted. “For us, we’ve been asking if we have the resources to do pooling successfully. And, if we put all these resources into it, what do we gain? That’s the big question for us.”

As Dark Daily reported in “University of Vermont Microbiology Laboratory Identifies Inefficiencies When Performing Pooled Testing for COVID-19,” the microbiology laboratory at the University of Kansas is not the only lab to have considered pooled testing and found it not desirable.

For a clinical laboratory to successfully initiate and maintain an effective program for pooled testing of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it must have specific equipment available to reduce manual touches of the specimens and automate as many work processes as possible. The lab’s manager must also consider the staffing required to handle pooled testing. Even then, if disease prevalence climbs above a certain level, pooled testing will not be a viable solution.

These are the reasons why many medical laboratories have considered a pooled testing arrangement but decided it would not be appropriate for their organization. Meanwhile, at other clinical labs pooled SARS-CoV-2 testing has been a major success, partly because it enables the labs to test many more patients using the same quantity of test kits and related supplies.

—Joseph Burns

Related Information:

University of Vermont Microbiology Laboratory Identifies Inefficiencies When Performing Pooled Testing for COVID-19

Memphis Path Lab Pivots to COVID, Pooled Testing

NY Hospital Lab Succeeds with Pooled COVID-19 Testing

Is COVID-19 Pooled Testing Good for Labs, Bad for IVDs?

Officials Differ on Value of COVID-19 Pooled Testing

ASCP and CAP Support New Legislation That Bars Surprise Medical Billing

The No Surprises Act, passed as part of the COVID-19 relief package, ensures patients do not receive surprise bills after out-of-network care, including hospital-based physicians such as pathologists

Consumer demand for price transparency in healthcare has been gaining support in Congress after several high-profile cases involving surprise medical billing received widespread reporting. Dark Daily covered many of these cases over the years.

In “Are Clinical Laboratories Prepared to Cope with Outrage Over Surprise Medical Billing? Patient Access Management May Be an Effective Solution,” we reported on how some early-adopter medical labs and pathology groups were using Patient Access Management (PAM) platforms to address new federal transparency policies, change patient expectations about billing, and increase revenue by lowering denial rates.

And in “Balance Billing Under Increased Scrutiny at Both State and Federal Levels: Clinical Laboratory Tests Top List of Surprise Bills Received by Patients,” we reported on how clinical laboratory testing topped the list of the surprise bills received by patients, according to a survey conducted by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the University of Chicago.

Now, after initial opposition and months of legislative wrangling, organizations representing medical laboratories and clinical pathologists have expressed support for new federal legislation that aims to protect patients from surprise medical bills, including for clinical pathology and anatomic pathology services.

The new law Congress passed is known as the No Surprises Act (H.R.3630) and is part of the $900 billion COVID relief and government funding package signed by President Trump on December 27.

“While this legislation is not perfect (no law is), it serves as a compromise where patients ultimately win,” stated the American Society for Clinical Pathology (ASCP) in its ePolicy News publication.

The law addresses the practice of “balance billing,” in which patients receive surprise bills for out-of-network medical services even when they use in-network providers. An ASCP policy statement noted that “a patient (consumer) may receive a bill for an episode of care or service they believed to be in-network and therefore covered by their insurance, but was in fact out-of-network.” This, according to the ASCP, “occurs most often in emergency situations, but specialties like pathology, radiology, and anesthesiology are affected as well.”

Most portions of the No Surprises Act take effect on January 1, 2022. The law prohibits balance billing for emergency care, air ambulance transport, or, in most cases, non-emergency care from in-network providers. Instead, if a patient unknowingly receives services from an out-of-network provider, they are liable only for co-pays and deductibles they would have paid for in-network care.

New Law Bars Pathologists from Balance Billing without Advance Patient Consent

The law permits balance billing under some circumstances, but only if the patient gives advance consent. And some specialties, including pathologists, are barred entirely from balance billing.

The law also establishes a process for determining how healthcare providers are reimbursed when a patient receives out-of-network care. The specifics of that process proved to be a major sticking point for providers. In states that have their own surprise-billing protections, payment will generally be determined by state law. Otherwise, payers and providers have 30 days to negotiate payment. If they can’t agree, payment is determined by an arbiter as part of an independent dispute resolution (IDR) process.

Early Proposal Drew Opposition

An early proposal to prohibit surprise billing drew opposition from a wide range of medical societies, including the ASCP, CAP, and the American Medical Association (AMA).

All were signatories to a July 29, 2020, letter sent to leaders of the US Senate and House of Representatives urging them to hold off from enacting surprise billing protections as part of COVID relief legislation. Though the groups agreed in principle with the need to protect patients from surprise billing, they contended that the proposed legislation leaned too heavily in favor of insurers, an ASCP news release noted.

“Legislative proposals that would dictate a set payment rate for unanticipated out-of-network care are neither market-based nor equitable, and do not account for the myriad inputs that factor into payment negotiations between insurers and providers,” the letter stated. “These proposals will only incentivize insurers to further narrow their provider networks and would also result in a massive financial windfall for insurers. As such, we oppose the setting of a payment rate in statute and are particularly concerned by proposals that would undermine hospitals and front-line caregivers during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Hospital groups, including the American Hospital Association (AHA), raised similar concerns in a July 30 letter to congressional leaders.

On December 11, leaders of key House and Senate committees announced agreement on a bipartisan draft of the bill that appeared to address these concerns, including establishment of the arbitration process for resolving payment disputes.

However, in a letter sent to the committee chairs and ranking members, the AHA asked for changes in the dispute-resolution provisions, including a prohibition on considering Medicare or Medicaid rates during arbitration. “We are concerned that the IDR process may be skewed if the arbiter is able to consider public payer reimbursement rates, which are well known to be below the cost of providing care,” the association stated. However, legislators agreed to the change after last-minute negotiations.

AHA President and CEO Rick Pollack headshot in suit and tie
“The AHA is pleased that Congress rejected approaches that would impose arbitrary rates on providers, which could have significant consequences far beyond the scope of surprise medical bills and impact access to hospital care,” AHA President and CEO Rick Pollack (above) said in a statement. “We also applaud Congress for rejecting attempts to base rates on public payers.” (Photo copyright: American Hospital Association.)

Dispute Resolution for Pathologists

The CAP also expressed support for the final bill. In a statement, CAP noted that “As the legislation evolved during the 116th Congress, CAP members met with their federal lawmakers to discuss the CAP’s policy priorities.

“Through the CAP’s engagement and collaboration with other physician associations, the legislation improved drastically,” the CAP stated. “Specifically, the CAP lobbied Congress to hold patients harmless, establish a fair reimbursement formula for services provided, deny insurers the ability to dictate payment, create an independent dispute resolution (IDR) process that pathologists can participate in, and require network adequacy standards for health insurers.”

As laboratory testing was identified by thousands of respondents to the University of Chicago survey as the top surprise bill, it is likely that billing and transparency in charges for clinical pathologist and anatomic pathologist will continue to be scrutinized by law makers and healthcare associations.

—Stephen Beale

Related Information:

Detailed Summary of No Surprises Act

H.R.3630 – No Surprises Act

Are Clinical Laboratories Prepared to Cope with Outrage Over Surprise Medical Billing? Patient Access Management May Be an Effective Solution

Balance Billing Under Increased Scrutiny at Both State and Federal Levels; Clinical Laboratory Tests Top List of Surprise Bills Received by Patients

The No Surprises Act: Implications for States

AHA Statement on COVID Relief Package and Government Funding Bill

AHA Letter on No Surprises Act

How the CAP Shaped Surprise Billing Legislation with its Advocacy

Success on Surprise Medical Bills

Congress Curbs Surprise Billing in Omnibus Coronavirus Relief Bill

ASCP Joins AMA on Surprise Billing Letter

ASCP Continues Patient Advocacy Efforts on Surprise Billing Legislation

Surprise Medical Bills Cost Americans Millions. Congress Finally Banned Most of Them

VA’s ‘Million Veterans Program’ Research Study Receives Its 100,000th Human Genome Sequence

With improved genetic sequencing comes larger human genome databases that could lead to new diagnostic and therapeutic biomarkers for clinical laboratories

As the COVID-19 pandemic grabbed headlines, the human genome database at the US Department of Veterans Affairs Million Veterans Program (MVP) quietly grew. Now, this wealth of genomic information—as well as data from other large-scale genomic and genetic collections—is expected to produce new biomarkers for clinical laboratory diagnostics and testing.

In December, cancer genomics company Personalis, Inc. (NASDAQ:PSNL) of Menlo Park, Calif., achieved a milestone and delivered its 100,000th whole human genome sequence to the MVP, according to a news release, which also states that Personalis is the sole sequencing provider to the MVP.

The VA’s MVP program, which started in 2011, has 850,000 enrolled veterans and is expected to eventually involve two million people. The VA’s aim is to explore the role genes, lifestyle, and military experience play in health and human illness, notes the VA’s MVP website.

Health conditions affecting veterans the MVP is researching include:

The VA has contracted with Personalis through September 2021, and has invested $175 million, Clinical OMICS reported. Personalis has earned approximately $14 million from the VA. That’s about 76% of the company’s revenue, according to 2nd quarter data, Clinical OMICS noted.

John West and wife Judy West of Personalis headshots
“The VA MVP is the largest whole genome sequencing project in the United States, and this is a significant milestone for both the program and for Personalis,” said John West (above with wife Judy), Founder and CEO of Personalis, in the news release. “Population-scale sequencing projects of this nature represent a cornerstone in our effort to accelerate the advancement of precision medicine across a wide range of disease areas,” he added. (Photo copyright: MIT Technology Review.)

Database of Veterans’ Genomes Used in Current Research

What has the VA gained from their investment so far? An MVP fact sheet states researchers are tapping MVP data for these and other veteran health-related studies: 

  • Gene variations associated with different tumor structures in patients with non-small-cell lung carcinoma.
  • Differentiating between prostate cancer tumors that require treatment and others that are slow-growing and not life-threatening.
  • How genetics drives obesity, diabetes, and heart disease.
  • How data in DNA translates into actual physiological changes within the body.
  • Gene variations and patients’ response to Warfarin.

NIH Research Program Studies Effects of Genetics on Health

Another research program, the National Institutes of Health’s All of Us study, recently began returning results to its participants who provided blood, urine, and/or saliva samples. The NIH aims to aid research into health outcomes influenced by genetics, environment, and lifestyle, explained a news release. The program, launched in 2018, has biological samples from more than 270,000 people with a goal of one million participants.

NIH’s All of Us program partners include:

Dr. Josh Denny CEO of NIH All of Us program headshot
“We’re changing the paradigm for research. Participants are our most important partners in this effort, and we know many of them are eager to get their genetic results and learn about the science they’re making possible,” said Josh Denny, MD, CEO of the NIH’s All of Us research program in the news release. Denny, a physician scientist, was Professor of Biomedical Informatics and Medicine, Director of the Center for Precision Medicine and Vice President for Personalized Medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center prior to joining the NIH. (Photo copyright: National Institutes of Health.)

Inclusive Data Could Aid Precision Medicine

The news release notes that more than 80% of biological samples in the All of Us database come from people in communities that have been under-represented in biomedical research.

“We need programs like All of Us to build diverse datasets so that research findings ultimately benefit everyone,” said Brad Ozenberger, PhD, All of Us Genomics Program Director, in the news release.

Precision medicine designed for specific healthcare populations is a goal of the All of Us program.

“[All of Us is] beneficial to all Americans, but actually beneficial to the African American race because a lot of research and a lot of medicines that we are taking advantage of today, [African Americans] were not part of the research,” Chris Crawford, All of US Research Study Navigator, told the Birmingham Times. “As [the All of Us study] goes forward and we get a big diverse group of people, it will help as far as making medicine and treatment that will be more precise for us,” he added.

Large Databases Could Advance Care

Genome sequencing technology continues to improve. It is faster, less complicated, and cheaper to sequence a whole human genome than ever before. And the resulting sequence is more accurate.

Thus, as human genome sequencing databases grow, researchers are deriving useful scientific insights from the data. This is relevant for clinical laboratories because the new insights from studying bigger databases of genomic information will produce new diagnostic and therapeutic biomarkers that can be the basis for new clinical laboratory tests as well as useful diagnostic assays for anatomic pathologists.

—Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

Personalis Announces Delivery of the 100,000th Genome to the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Million Veteran Program

VA Extends Personalis Contract for Million Veterans Project With $31M Task Order

Million Veteran Program Research Projects

All of Us Research Program Returns First Genetic Results to Participants

All of Us Research: Why Some Get Sick and Others Are in Great Health

Anticipated Influenza/SARS-CoV-2 “Twindemic” Has Not Developed, Says CDC, Much to the Relief of the Nation’s Medical Laboratories

The remarkably low number of influenza diagnoses makes it possible for clinical laboratories to stay focused on COVID-19

One positive note for clinical laboratories this winter is the fact that the number of biological samples being submitted for influenza (flu) testing have dropped significantly. This has given medical laboratories more resources for processing COVID-19 tests.

Dark Daily’s sister publication The Dark Report covered this phenomenon in “Surprise! Many Fewer Cases of Flu in Us, Canada, Europe,” December 7, 2020.

According to a feature published in Nature, the number of samples being submitted to medical laboratories for flu testing has dropped by 61%. More surprisingly, the number of positives has dropped by 98%. The combined flu/COVID-19 “twindemic” that some medical experts feared could crush our healthcare system has not materialized—yet, the Washington Examiner reported.

“In any given winter, hospitals are taxed by the flu,” Brian Garibaldi, MD, a pulmonologist and critical care specialist and Medical Director of the Johns Hopkins Biocontainment Unit told the Washington Examiner. “There’s always a concern that our emergency departments will be overwhelmed, and ICU capacity will be strained [due to the concurrence of flu and COVID-19 outbreaks], particularly with people who have coexisting conditions that then get influenza.”

The 2019-2020 flu season ended earlier than usual, likely because of precautions put in place in the spring to combat the coronavirus pandemic. Most years, the seasonal flu in the US peaks in February and trails off by May, Nature reported in “How Coronavirus Lockdowns Stopped Flu in Its Tracks.”

“Seasonal flu cases in the northern hemisphere usually peak in February and tail off by the end of May,” Nature wrote. “This year, unusually, lab-confirmed cases of influenza dropped precipitously in early April, a few weeks after the coronavirus pandemic was declared on 11 March. The data comes from tests of more than 150,000 samples from national influenza laboratories in 71 countries that report data to FluNet, a global surveillance system.”

Government Leaders and Health Experts Remain Concerned

Despite that encouraging data point, public health experts and political leaders were still concerned. In September, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey said, “The overlap of COVID-19 and flu season presents a perfect storm, and we aren’t taking any chances. We are approaching this fall with a proactive mindset and plan of action to limit the impact of the flu and preserve hospital resources,” the Washington Examiner reported.

The caution was certainly warranted. A normal flu season strains resources, but a severe flu season coupled with a global pandemic could have been disastrous. Luckily, Ducey’s “perfect storm” did not materialize.

chart of flu-season during COVID-19 and years 2016 - 2020 with 4 years of flu data charted by FluNet Response System
Data from the World Health Organization’s FluNet Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System was used by Nature to develop the graphic above. It illustrates how the number of positive Influenza specimens in 2019-2020 declined compared to the previous two years. Some experts believe this is due to protocols implemented to combat the COVID-19 coronavirus by hospitals and clinical laboratories. (Graphic copyright: Nature.)

Why Is There Less Influenza?

So, why is there less flu and other respiratory infections?

Epidemiologist Lisa Lockerd Maragakis, MD, MPH, Associate Professor of Medicine and Senior Director of Infection Prevention at Johns Hopkins Health System, told U.S. News, widespread business and school closures provide fewer opportunities for influenza to spread. “We commonly see flu spread in communities, schools, businesses and through travel each year, so those changes are likely keeping the flu away.”

However, this may have a negative effect as well. Eili Klein, PhD, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, warns that “Because of the current restrictions and precautions everyone is taking this season, far fewer people will be infected or exposed to the flu virus, and therefore won’t become immune to certain strains of the virus. So, the number of people who may have more severe infections next year is likely to be greater because immunity will be lower,” the Washington Examiner reported.

Other Viral Infections Also in Decline Due to COVID-19 Precautions, Vaccines

Masking, frequent handwashing, and social distancing certainly played a role in reducing the number of cases of flu reported this year. But influenza is not the only disease that saw reductions. “In Hong Kong, compared with previous years, the number of chickenpox cases dropped by about half to three-quarters,” Nature reported. “In April, cases of measles and rubella were their lowest, globally, since at least 2016, according to data available so far.”

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, some public health officials were concerned that the decline in influenza cases was actually related to a lack of testing. “However, renewed efforts by public health officials and clinicians to test samples for influenza resulted in adequate numbers tested and detection of little to no influenza virus,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported.

Another factor in the lower numbers of flu cases could be due to the fact that more people have gotten vaccinated this year. More than 188 million flu vaccines were distributed in 2020, an increase compared to the 169 million given in 2019.

“Flu vaccination in the community started earlier this year, as recommended by the CDC, and our community physicians report that vaccine uptake has been higher than usual,” Marie-Louise Landry, MD, Clinical Virologist, Professor of Laboratory Medicine and of Medicine (Infectious Diseases), and Director of the Clinical Virology Laboratory at Yale School of Medicine, told Healthline.

It may also be that influenza diagnoses are fewer because people are not seeking treatment. Hospitals at or beyond capacity due to the pandemic, or fear of contracting COVID-19, may have motivated people with flu-like symptoms to stay home rather than seek treatment. However, most healthcare experts agree that public health measures to fight COVID-19 are likely the larger reason there is less flu.

“Public health measures such as movement restrictions, social distancing, and increased personal hygiene likely had an effect on decreasing influenza and other respiratory virus transmissions,” the World Health Organization (WHO) told Nature.

What About the Next Flu Season?

Experts are more conflicted regarding what all of this means for coming flu seasons. Some experts think that because there’s less flu this year, there will be less immunity next year, and severe illness will result. Others are more optimistic and hope that some strains of flu will disappear, which could mean less flu in the immediate future. It’s not a simple prediction to make.

“A lot of different flus have been circulating in recent years. Are they all going to make it out of this or not? It’s possible that what this season will do is actually make the virological picture a lot simpler. That may be permanent, potentially,” Richard Webby, PhD, an infectious disease scientist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital and Director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds, told Nature in “How COVID-19 is Changing the Cold and Flu Season.”

Even if the low flu numbers this year mean some strains do not survive, it is unlikely that will remain the case. “I am sure that flu will come back with a vengeance at some stage in the future,” Robert Ware, PhD, a biostatistician, clinical epidemiologist, and Professor of Biostatistics with Griffith University in Queensland, Australia, told Nature.

Thus, clinical laboratories should remain vigilant for future influenza outbreaks. Hopefully by then the COVID-19 pandemic will have peaked and labs will be able to reallocate testing resources appropriately.

—Dava Stewart

Related Information:

How COVID-19 Is Changing the Cold and Flu Season

How Coronavirus Lockdowns Stopped Flu in Its Tracks

CDC Reports Record-Low Positive Flu Tests

What Happened to the Flu This Year?

Decreased Influenza Activity During the COVID-19 Pandemic—United States, Australia, Chile, and South Africa, 2020

Why Flu Cases Are Down During a Massive Pandemic

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