WHO/IARC Study Projects Increase of 77% in Global Cancer Cases by 2050, Reports 20 Million Global Cancer Cases in 2022
Predicted steady increase in the number of new cancer cases globally will stress pathologist and clinical laboratories to process specimens and issue timely cancer diagnoses to referring physicians and patients
In many nations today, it is recognized that the demand for cancer testing services outstrips the capacity of anatomic pathology laboratories to perform cancer testing in a timely manner. Now a new report published in CA, a journal of the American Cancer Society, estimates that the number of new cancers globally will increase substantially during the next few decades.
With today’s cancer diagnostic technologies and standards of practice, it is anatomic pathologists who will typically receive biopsies or patient specimens, perform the tests, and confirm/report whether a patient has cancer. Thus, this new report projecting that the disease will grow 77% to 35 million cases by the year 2050 should be of interest to pathology groups and clinical laboratories worldwide.
According to the published study, titled, “Global Cancer Statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries,” there were 20 million new cancer cases and 9.7 million cancer-related deaths in 2022.
The report is a collaboration between the World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (WHO/IARC) and the American Cancer Society (ACS). The report called for “global escalation of cancer control measures” and paying close attention to risk factors such as smoking, obesity, and infections, according to an IARC statement.
Unfortunately, the news about increasing cancer cases comes at a time when worldwide demand for pathologists already far exceeds available supply.
“The impact of this increase will not be felt evenly across countries of different HDI [human development index] levels. Those who have the fewest resources to manage their cancer burdens will bear the brunt of the global cancer burden,” said epidemiology of cancer researcher Freddie Bray, PhD (above), Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch at the IARC in Lyon, France, in a press release. Bray “specializes in estimating the global cancer burden and predicting future trends,” according to the organization’s website. He also “leads the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development (GICR), which is aimed at expanding the coverage and quality of population-based cancer registries in low- and middle-income countries.” Clinical laboratories and anatomic pathologists in the United States and abroad would be wise to keep an eye on the coming cancer burden. (Photo copyright: IARC.)
Top Diagnosed Cancers
To complete their study, the WHO/IARC researchers tapped GLOBOCAN [Global Cancer Observatory] estimates of cancer incidence and mortality, the disease’s geographical variability, and predictions based on global demographic projections.
The 10 most frequently diagnosed cancers for men and women (combined) by percent of cancer sites and number of new cases in 2022 include:
- Lung: 12.4% (2.5 million cases).
- Female breast: 11.6% (2.3 million cases).
- Colorectum: 9.6% (1.9 million cases).
- Prostate: 7.3% (1.5 million cases).
- Stomach: 4.9% (968,350 cases).
- Liver: 4.3% (865,269 cases).
- Thyroid: 4.1% (861,173 cases).
- Cervix: 3.3% (661,021 cases).
- Bladder: 3.1% (613,791 cases).
- Non-Hodgkin lymphoma: 2.8% (553,010 cases).
For women, the cancer most often diagnosed was at the breast site. It was also the leading cause of death from cancer, the CA study noted, adding that lung and colorectal cancer cases and deaths in women followed breast cancer.
For men, lung cancer was the top cancer diagnosed in terms of cases and deaths, ahead of prostate and colorectal cancer for new cases.
Geographic HDI Affects Cancer of Citizens
The geographic areas with the highest distribution of new cancer cases and mortality rates in 2022, according to the CA paper, are:
- Asia: 49.2% of cases, 56.1% of deaths.
- Africa: 5.9% of cases, 7.8% of deaths.
- Oceania: 1.4% of cases, 0.8% of deaths.
- Euro: 22.4% of cases, 20.4% of deaths.
- Americas: 21.2% of cases, 14.9% of deaths.
The WHO/IARC report also associated a country’s human development index (HDI)—a measure of health, longevity, and standard of living—with the likelihood of its residents developing cancer, USA Today reported.
“From a global perspective, the risk of developing cancer tends to increase with increasing HDI level. For example, the cumulative risk of men developing cancer before age of 75 years in 2022 ranged from approximately 10% in low HDI settings to over 30% in very high HDI settings,” the researchers wrote in their CA paper.
This suggests that a lack of resources to diagnose and treat cancer can hinder response and treatment.
In a news release, the WHO pointed out examples of what it termed “striking cancer inequity by HDI.”
“Women in lower HDI countries are 50% less likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer than women in high HDI countries, yet they are at much higher risk of dying of the disease due to late diagnosis and inadequate access to quality treatment,” said medical epidemiologist Isabelle Soerjomataram, MD, PhD, Deputy Head of the Cancer Surveillance Branch, WHO/IARC, in the news release.
Additionally, lung cancer-related resources were four to seven times more likely to be offered in a high-income country than a lower-income country, the WHO noted.
“WHO’s new global survey sheds light on major inequalities and lack of financial protection for cancer around the world, with populations—especially in lower income countries—unable to access the basics of cancer care,” said Bente Mikkelsen, MD, Director of the WHO’s Department of Noncommunicable Diseases, in the news release.
Current State of Pathology Demand
Is the pathology industry prepared for a global cancer burden? Hardly.
In “Examining the Worldwide Pathologist Shortage,” Dark Daily’s sister publication The Dark Report found that demand for pathology services is growing faster than the number of pathologists available to meet that demand. This is true for the United States and most other nations. Consequently, efforts are underway to more accurately measure the number of pathologists practicing in each country. Early data support the claim of an inadequate number of pathologists.
Thus, aligning clinical laboratory and anatomic pathology resources with cancer projections is especially important in light of the WHO/IARC’s recent report which suggests the number of cancer diagnoses and different types of cancer will increase dramatically in coming years.
The data could be helpful to diagnostic leaders seeking evidence to support training of more anatomic pathologists and expansion of AP laboratories, where cancer is most often confirmed and reported.
—Donna Marie Pocius
Related Information:
New Report on Global Cancer Burden in 2022 by World Region and Human Development Index
Global Cancer Burden Growing Amidst Mounting Need for Services
Cancer Cases Could Increase 77% as Global Population Balloons. These Types Are Most Common
