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Monkeypox Outbreak Subsides in US, Europe, But Public Health Concerns Remain

Experts cite high vaccination rates and behavioral changes among at-risk groups, but warn about complacency; clinical laboratories should remain vigilant

In July, Scott Gottlieb, MD, Commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from May 2017 to April 2019, wrote an op-ed in The New York Times titled, “Monkeypox Is About to Become the Next Public Health Failure.” In it, he wrote, “Our country’s response to monkeypox has been plagued by the same shortcomings we had with COVID-19.” But has it improved? Clinical laboratory leaders and pathology group managers will find it informative to find out what has taken place since Gottlieb made his stark prediction.

The global monkeypox outbreak that emerged last spring appears to have subsided in the US and Europe, though it remains to be seen if the disease can be completely eradicated, according to multiple media reports. As of Oct. 26, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a 7-day rolling average of 30 cases per day in the US, down from a peak of nearly 440/day in early August.

Cases are also down in cities that earlier reported heavy outbreaks. For example, the New York City Health Department reported a 7-day average of just two cases per day on Oct. 25, compared with 73/day on July 30.

And the San Francisco Department of Public Health announced on Oct. 20 that it would end the city’s public health emergency on monkeypox (MPX) effective on Oct. 31. “MPX cases have slowed to less than one case per day and more than 27,000 San Franciscans are now vaccinated against the virus,” the agency stated in a press release.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD

“Once again, we caution that a declining outbreak can be the most dangerous outbreak, because it can tempt us to think that the crisis is over and to let down our guard,” said World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, in an Oct. 12 global press briefing. “That’s not what WHO is doing. We are continuing to work with countries around the world to increase their testing capacity, and to monitor trends in the outbreak.” Clinical laboratories should not assume the outbreak has passed but continue to be vigilant and prepared for increased demand in monkeypox testing. (Photo copyright: ITU Pictures.)

Changing Behavior Lowers Infection Rates

In addition to high vaccination rates, public health experts have attributed the decline to behavioral changes among at-risk groups. “There were really substantial changes among men who have sex [with] men,” infectious disease physician Shira Doron, MD, of Tufts Medical Center in Boston, told ABC News.

On September 2, the CDC published the results of a survey indicating that about half of men who have sex with men “reported reducing their number of sex partners, one-time sexual encounters, and use of dating apps because of the monkeypox outbreak.”

Another likely factor is the disease’s limited transmissibility. “Initially, there was a lot of concern that monkeypox could spread widely at daycares or in schools, but, overall, there has been very little spread among children,” NPR reported.  

But citing multiple studies, the NPR story noted “that often there isn’t very much virus in the upper respiratory tract,” where it might spread through talking or coughing. “Instead, the highest levels of virus occur on sores found on the skin and inside the anus.”

These studies, along with earlier research, “explain why monkeypox is spreading almost exclusively through contact during sex, especially anal and oral sex, during the current outbreak,” NPR reported.

Monkeypox Could Mutate, experts say

Despite the promising numbers, public health experts are warning that monkeypox could remain as a long-term threat to public health. According to an article in Nature, “At best, the outbreak might fizzle out over the next few months or years. At worst, the virus could become endemic outside Africa by reaching new animal reservoirs, making it nearly impossible to eradicate.”

In addition to the limited transmissibility of the virus, Nature noted that the outbreak stems from a relatively mild form of the pathogen and is rarely fatal. As of Oct. 28, the CDC reported a total of just six confirmed deaths in the US out of a total of 28,302 confirmed cases since the first infections were reported in May.

It is possible that the virus could mutate into a more contagious form, but Nature noted that monkeypox is a DNA virus, and that they tend to mutate more slowly than RNA viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 and HIV. Nevertheless, University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Medicine bioinformatician Elliot Lefkowitz, PhD, warned that a “worrisome mutation” could arise if the outbreak continues for much longer.

Another expert, Jessica Justman, MD, infectious disease specialist, epidemiologist, and associate professor at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, cautioned that declining case numbers might not reflect the true prevalence of the disease.

“I have no confidence that all the people who need to be tested are being tested,” she told Nature. She expressed concerns that people could resume risky behavior if they think the danger has passed.

Another question is whether currently available vaccines offer long-lasting protection. And though reported case numbers are down in the US and Europe, they are rising in parts of Africa and South America, Nature noted.

Gottlieb’s Dire Prediction

The decline in new infections followed dire warnings last summer about the possible consequences of the outbreak. In his New York Times op-ed, former Gottlieb criticized the CDC for being slow to test for the virus. He wrote, “[I]f monkeypox gains a permanent foothold in the United States and becomes an endemic virus that joins our circulating repertoire of pathogens, it will be one of the worst public health failures in modern times not only because of the pain and peril of the disease but also because it was so avoidable.”

At the time of his writing, Gottlieb was right to be concerned. On July 29, the CDC reported a seven-day moving average of 390 reported cases per day. According to the federal agency, a reported case “Includes either the positive laboratory test report date, CDC call center reporting date, or case data entry date into CDC’s emergency response common operating platform, DCIPHER.”

Quashing the outbreak, Gottlieb estimated, would have required about 15,000 tests per week among people presenting symptoms resembling monkeypox. But between mid-May and the end of June, he noted, the CDC had tested only about 2,000 samples, according to the federal agency’s July 15 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).

As a remedy, Gottlieb called on the Biden administration to re-focus the CDC’s efforts more on disease control “by transferring some of its disease prevention work to other agencies,” including the FDA.

Perhaps his suggestions helped. Confirmed monkeypox case are way down. Nevertheless, clinical laboratory leaders should continue to be vigilant. Growing demand for monkeypox testing could indicate an increase in reported cases as we enter the 2022 influenza season, which is predicted to be worse than previous years. Dark Daily covered this impending threat in “Australia’s Severe Flu Season Could be a Harbinger of Increased Influenza Cases in US and Canada Straining Already Burdened Clinical Laboratories.”

Stephen Beale

Related Information:

Monkeypox Cases in the US Are Way Down—Can the Virus Be Eliminated?

What Does the Future Look Like for Monkeypox?

NYC Has Almost Eliminated Monkeypox. An NYU Biology Prof on What the City Needs to Reach Zero

New York and Nevada Announce First Monkeypox Deaths as Official CDC Tally Rises to Four

Monkeypox Update: FDA Takes Significant Action to Help Expand Access to Testing

Gottlieb Predicts Monkeypox Will Become Public Health Failure

Monkeypox Is About to Become the Next Public Health Failure

Australia’s Severe Flu Season Could be a Harbinger of Increased Influenza Cases in US and Canada Straining Already Burdened Clinical Laboratories

City of San Francisco Launches Universal Healthcare

It’s now the one-year anniversary for the nation’s first attempt by a city to institute universal healthcare. The Healthy San Francisco program was created by the City of San Francisco to give its 73,000 uninsured city residents access to affordable health care. Technically, the program is not health insurance because beneficiaries can only access benefits within the city limits of San Francisco.

The program is funded by businesses with 50 or more employees that don’t provide health benefits. These businesses began paying between $1.17 and $1.76 per hour per employee in January. In April, businesses with between 29 and 49 uninsured employees also paid $1.17 per hour per employee, or pledged to offer minimum benefits to workers.

Restaurants in San Francisco are particularly negative about the Health San Francisco initiative, claiming that it will create economic hardship for them and force them to close or relocate. Some restaurants have gotten around the problem by passing the cost directly on to consumers. One restaurant added a service charge of $1.25 per dinner “in support of Healthy San Francisco” with an Internet address of the healthcare program.

Time magazine calls San Francisco’s program, operated by the San Francisco Department of Public Health (DPH) and conceived by Mayor Gavin Newsom in his 2005 State of the City pledge, “universal healthcare.” The Healthy San Francisco Web site says “Healthy San Francisco is not insurance, but a reinvention of the San Francisco health care safety net, that will enable and encourage residents to access primary and preventive care. It provides a Medical Home and primary physician to each program participant, allowing a greater focus on preventive care, as well as specialty care, urgent and emergency care, laboratory, inpatient hospitalization, radiology, and pharmaceuticals.”

Currently, the program is enrolling about 600 individuals per week, and enrollees now total 24,000. At least 27 clinics in the city are participating in the program and the City of San Francisco estimates it will cost $200 million per year to provide care to all 73,000 uninsured people within the city limits.

The program in San Francisco is being hailed as groundbreaking and a model for other cities in the US to follow. In an era where most cities and states simply continue to complain about the state of health care, San Francisco has actually chosen to try something. These innovations and experiments in the delivery of healthcare services should be welcomed, because they are “real world learning laboratories.” As such, they quickly demonstrate whether such innovations actually deliver value and contribute to improving the delivery of healthcare.

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