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Italian Scientists Train Dogs to Detect Presence or Absence of COVID-19 in Humans with Remarkable Accuracy

Dogs’ acute sense of smell can even surpass effectiveness of some clinical laboratory testing in detecting certain diseases in humans

When it comes to COVID-19 testing, a recent Italian study demonstrates that trained dogs can detect SARS-CoV-2 with accuracy comparable to rapid molecular tests used in clinical laboratories. The researchers wanted to determine if dogs could be more effective at screening people for COVID-19 at airports, schools, and other high-traffic environments as a way to detect the coronavirus and reduce the spread of this infectious disease.

Scientists at the State University of Milan in Italy conducted a study that shows dogs can be trained to accurately identify the presence of the COVID-19 infection from both biological samples and by simply smelling an individual. 

For their validation study, the Italian team trained three dogs named Nala, Otto, and Helix, “to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in sweat samples from infected people. At the end of the training, the dogs achieved an average sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 99%, showing a level of accuracy highly consistent with that of the RT-PCR [reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction] used in molecular tests and a moderate to strong reproducibility over time,” Nature reported.

RT-PCR tests are the current gold-standard for SARS-CoV-2 detection. This is yet another example of scientists training dogs to smell a disease with “acceptable” accuracy. This time for COVID-19.

The researchers published the results of their study in the journal Scientific Reports titled, “Sniffer Dogs Performance is Stable Over Time in Detecting COVID-19 Positive Samples and Agrees with the Rapid Antigen Test in the Field.” Their findings support the idea that biosensing canines could be used to help reduce the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in high-risk environments.

Frederica Pirrone, PhD

“We only recruited dogs that showed themselves predisposed and positively motivated to carry out this type of activity. One of the fundamental aspects was not to cause stress or anxiety in the subjects used,” Federica Pirrone, PhD (above), Associate Professor, Department of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Sciences, University of Milan, and one of the authors of the study told Lifegate. “Training always takes place using positive reinforcement of a food nature: whether it’s a particularly appetizing morsel, a biscuit, or something that associates the dog’s search with a rewarding prize.” In some instances, dogs have been shown to be as good or more effective at detecting certain diseases than clinical laboratory testing. (Photo copyright: Facebook.)

Dogs More Accurate than Rapid Antigen Testing

Nala and four other dogs (Nim, Hope, Iris and Chaos) were later trained by canine technicians from Medical Detection Dogs Italy (MDDI) to identify the existence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus by directly smelling people waiting in line in pharmacies to get a nasal swab to test for the coronavirus.

Working with their handlers, the five dogs accurately signaled the presence or absence of the virus with 89% sensitivity and 95% specificity. That rate is “well above the minimum required by the WHO [World Health Organization] for rapid swabs for SARS-CoV-2,” according to Nature.

“The results of studies published so far on the accuracy of canine smell in detecting the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in biological samples (e.g., saliva, sweat, urine, trachea-bronchial secretions) from infected people suggest that sniffer dogs might reach percentages of sensitivity and specificity comparable to, or perhaps even higher, than those of RT-PCR,” the scientists wrote in Scientific Reports.

“However, although most of these studies are of good quality, none of them provided scientific validation of canine scent detection, despite this being an important requirement in the chemical analysis practice. Therefore, further applied research in this field is absolutely justified to provide definitive validation of this biodetection method,” the researchers concluded.

Other Studies into Using Dogs for Detecting Disease

In a similar study published in the journal Frontiers in Medicine titled, “Dogs Detecting COVID-19 from Sweat and Saliva of Positive People: A Field Experience in Mexico,” researchers found that dogs could be trained to detect the presence or absence of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus from human sweat and saliva samples. 

Scientists from the Division of Biological and Health Sciences, Department of Agriculture and Livestock at the University of Sonora; and the Canine Training Center Obi-K19, both in Hermosillo, Mexico, conducted the study “as part of a Frontiers of Science Project of the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACYT), in which in addition to analyzing sweat compounds, trained dogs are put to sniff the samples and make detections in people who show symptoms or could be positive for coronavirus,” Mexico Daily Post reported.

The researchers trained four dogs with sweat samples and three dogs with saliva samples of COVID-19 positive patients. The samples were obtained from a health center located in Hermosillo, Sonora, in Mexico. The dogs were restricted to spend five minutes per patient and the researchers calculated the performance of the dogs by measuring sensitivity, specificity, and their 95% confidence intervals (CI).

The researchers concluded that all four of the dogs could detect COVID-19 from either sweat or saliva samples “with sensitivity and specificity rates significantly different from random [sampling] in the field.” According to the Frontiers in Medicine study, the researchers found their results promising because, they said, it is reasonable to expect the detection rate would improve with longer exposure to the samples.  

The objective of the Mexican researchers is for the dogs to ultimately reach the sensitivity range requested by WHO for the performance of an antigen test, which is at least 80% sensitivity and 97% specificity. If that goal is achieved, dogs could become important partners in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientists wrote. 

In “German Scientists Train Dogs to Detect the Presence of COVID-19 in Saliva Samples; Can a Canine’s Nose Be as Accurate as Clinical Laboratory Testing?Dark Daily reported on a pilot study conducted by researchers at the University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover (TiHo), the Hannover Medical School, and the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf involving eight specialized sniffer dogs from the Bundeswehr (German armed forces) to determine if the dogs could find people infected with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. After only one week of training, the dogs were able to accurately detect the presence of the COVID-19 infection 94% of the time.

And in “New Study Shows Dogs Can be Trained to Sniff Out Presence of Prostate Cancer in Urine Samples,” we covered how scientists from Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, University of Texas, Harvard Medical School, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and others, had conducted a pilot study that demonstrated dogs could identify prostate samples containing cancer and discern between cancer positive and cancer negative samples.

Data obtained so far from these studies indicate that biosensing dogs may represent an effective method of screening for COVID-19 as well as other diseases. More studies and clinical trials are needed before the widespread use of dogs might become feasible. Nevertheless, scientists all over the world are finding that Man’s best friend can be a powerful ally in the fight against the spread of deadly diseases.

In the meantime, the gold standard in COVID-19 testing will continue to be the FDA-cleared assays used by clinical laboratories throughout the United States.

—JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Sniffer Dogs Performance is Stable Over Time in Detecting COVID-19 Positive Samples and Agrees with the Rapid Antigen Test in the Field

COVID: Goodbye Swabs, the Dogs Will Sniff It

There Are Dogs That Are Able to “Sniff Out” Diseases

Antigen-detection in the Diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Dogs Detecting COVID-19 from Sweat and Saliva of Positive People: A Field Experience in Mexico

German Scientists Train Dogs to Detect the Presence of COVID-19 in Saliva Samples; Can a Canine’s Nose Be as Accurate as Clinical Laboratory Testing?

New Study Shows Dogs Can Be Trained to Sniff Out Presence of Prostate Cancer in Urine Samples

With New Daily Monkeypox Cases Now in Single Digits, Can We Declare the Mission Accomplished?

Coordinating at-home testing for monkeypox may provide opportunities for clinical laboratories to add value for their physician clients

Microbiologists and clinical laboratory managers who oversee medical laboratory tests for monkeypox (aka, mpox) will be interested to learn that, according to the US Centers of Disease Control (CDC), cases per day have dropped into the single digits.

The United States led the world in cases during the 2022-2023 outbreak, according to the most recent CDC statistics. As of February 15, the US has reported 30,193 cases of monkeypox with 32 deaths.

Nevertheless, January 31 was the day that the US public health emergency involving monkeypox officially expired. Data from the World Health Organization shows the number of daily monkeypox cases in most countries around the world is declining, although numbers of cases are still increasing in some South American countries.

The global monkeypox outbreak appears to have slowed considerably, but are we out of the woods?

Jonathan Mermin, MD

“There were concerns that there would be ongoing transmission and that ongoing transmission would become endemic in the United States like other STIs: gonorrhea, chlamydia, syphilis. We have not seen that occur,” Jonathan Mermin, MD (above), Director of the National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention at the CDC, told CNN.” We are now seeing three to four cases a day in the United States, and it continues to decline. And we see the possibility of getting to zero as real.” This decline in monkeypox test corresponds with a similar decline in COVID-19 clinical laboratory testing as well. (Photo Copyright: CDC.)

Untried Vaccine and At-home Testing for Monkeypox

When the monkeypox outbreak began in May of 2022, there were concerns about the US’ level of preparedness for dealing with a second pandemic while also battling COVID-19. But monkeypox was not entirely unknown to the scientific and medical communities.

Monkeypox first appeared in 1958 amongst a colony of monkeys being kept for research. The origin of the disease is not known. According to the CDC, the first reported human case of monkeypox was in 1970. Prior to the 2022 outbreak, most cases were found in central and western African countries. Cases outside of those areas could be traced back to travel from those specific countries.

When cases of monkeypox first appeared in the US, public health officials were concerned about the availability of testing, vaccines, and treatments. As CNN reported, though there was a new vaccine available, its effectiveness against monkeypox had never been tested on humans.

That treatment, known as TPOXX (Tecovirimat), was an antiviral drug approved by the FDA in 2018 to treat smallpox in adults and children, according to an FDA factsheet. The drug was difficult to obtain, and it took until August of 2022 for the federal government to declare monkeypox a public health emergency. That allowed it to deploy emergency funds towards fighting the outbreak.

The US government eventually set up a task force to address the outbreak led by Robert Fenton Jr. from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and Demetre Daskalakis, MD, Director of the CDC’s Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention (DHAP) in the National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).

The demographic found to be at the highest risk of monkeypox infection were men who have sex with other men. According to MedPage Today, “Daskalakis had both pandemic experience as former senior lead on equity in COVID-19 data and engagement for the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene and an ‘in’ with the LGBTQ+ community from his work in HIV prevention and his transparency about being a gay man.”

When comparing monkeypox to HIV, Daskalakis said, “This one [monkeypox], you don’t have to change behaviors for generations; it’s for a few months. Once you build your force field of immunity with vaccines, people can make their own informed decisions about their risk.”

Opportunities for Clinical Laboratories

So, how should clinical laboratories respond if there’s another monkeypox flare up?

Daskalakis advocates for home testing. “People that are going to order home tests are going to be motivated to action in other ways. And so, thinking about HIV home testing, which was the grandparent of COVID-19 home testing, this really shows us how you reach people you’re not going to reach when you have lab-based, provider-only testing … When you look at the HIV home testing data from the CDC, 26% of the people that ordered a home test had never been tested before. That is way higher than what you would expect,” he told MedPage Today.

In “Healthcare Experts Say Consumers Are Ready for Self-Test Flu Kits, but Are Physicians and Clinical Laboratories Ready to Let That Cat Out of the Bag?Dark Daily explored similar opportunities for clinical laboratories to be instrumental in increasing consumers safety by helping patients accurately collect samples, administer tests, and understand test results.

We are not out of the woods in regard to monkeypox, vigilance is still required. But with existing harm reduction measures in the most vulnerable community, at-home testing and advancements in vaccines could help us keep our numbers as low as possible.

Ashley Croce

Related Information:

2022 (Mpox) Outbreak Cases and Data

About Mpox

Mpox Is Almost Gone in the US, Leaving Lessons and Mysteries In Its Wake

Mpox Is No Longer a Public Health Emergency in the US

2022-23 Mpox (Monkeypox) Outbreak: Global Trends

Where Did All the Monkeypox Go?

Healthcare Experts Say Consumers Are Ready for Self-Test Flu Kits, but Are Physicians and Clinical Laboratories Ready to Let That Cat Out of the Bag?

Australian Researchers Discover New Form of Antimicrobial Resistance in Findings That Have Implications for Microbiology Laboratories

Study findings could lead to new biomarker targets for clinical laboratories working to identify AMR bacteria

Reducing and managing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major goal of researchers and health systems across the globe. And it is the job of microbiologists and clinical laboratories to identify microbes that are AMR and those which are not to guide physicians as to the most appropriate therapies for patients with bacterial infections.

Thus, a recent discovery by researchers at the Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, a division of the Telethon Kids Institute at Perth Children’s Hospital in Australia, will be of interest to medical laboratory leaders. The researchers may have learned how some bacteria dodge antibiotics in the human body. Their findings could lead to new diagnostics and better patient outcomes. 

The scientists published their findings in the journal Nature Communications titled, “Host-Dependent Resistance of Group A Streptococcus to Sulfamethoxazole Mediated by a Horizontally-Acquired Reduced Folate Transporter.”

Timothy Barnett, PhD

“AMR is a silent pandemic of much greater risk to society than COVID-19. In addition to 10 million deaths per year by 2050, the WHO estimates AMR will cost the global economy $100 trillion if we can’t find a way to combat antibiotic failure,” Timothy Barnett, PhD (above), Deputy Director and head of the Strep A Pathogenesis and Diagnostics team at Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, told News Medical. Additional research may provide new targets for clinical laboratories tasked with identifying antimicrobial resistant bacteria. (Photo copyright: University of Western Australia.)

Rendering an Antibiotic Ineffective

According to the University of Oxford, about 1.2 million people died worldwide in 2019 due to AMR, and antimicrobial-resistant infections played a role in as many as 4.95 million deaths that same year. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared AMR one of the top ten global public health threats facing humanity.

While investigating antibiotic sensitivity of Group A Streptococcus—a potentially deadly bacteria often detected on the skin and in the throat—the Australian researchers uncovered a mechanism that enabled bacteria to absorb nutrients from their human host and evade the antibiotic sulfamethoxazole, a commonly-prescribed treatment for Group A Strep.

“Bacteria need to make their own folates to grow and, in turn, cause disease. Some antibiotics work by blocking this folate production to stop bacteria growing and treat the infection,” Timothy Barnett, PhD, Deputy Director of the Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases and head of the Strep A Pathogenesis and Diagnostics team, told News Medical.

“When looking at an antibiotic commonly prescribed to treat Group A Strep skin infections, we found a mechanism of resistance where, for the first time ever, the bacteria demonstrated the ability to take folates directly from its human host when blocked from producing their own. This makes the antibiotic ineffective and the infection would likely worsen when the patient should be getting better,” he added.

According to their study, the researchers identified an energy-coupling (ECF) factor transporter S component gene that allows Group A Strep to acquire extracellular reduced folate compounds that likely “expands the substrate specificity of an endogenous ECF transporter to acquire reduced folate compounds directly from the host, thereby bypassing the inhibition of folate biosynthesis by sulfamethoxazole.”

The study indicates that this new form of antibiotic resistance is indistinguishable under traditional testing used in microbiology and clinical laboratories, which in turn makes it difficult for clinicians to prescribe effective antibiotics to fight an infection. 

Understanding AMR before It Is Too Late

The research suggests that understanding AMR is more complicated and intricate than previously thought. Barnett and his team believe their discovery is just the “tip of the iceberg” and that it will prove to be a far-reaching issue across other bacterial pathogens in addition to Group A Strep.

In “CDC Ranks Two More Drug-Resistant Microbes as ‘Urgent Threat’ to Americans; Clinical Laboratories Are Advised to Increase Awareness of Antimicrobial Resistance,” Dark Daily covered a report by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that calls attention the emergence of new antibiotic-resistant bacteria and fungi. In its report, the CDC lists 18 bacteria and fungi that pose either urgent, serious, or concerning threats to humans. It also placed one fungus and two bacteria on a “watch” list.

“Without antibiotics, we face a world where there will be no way to stop deadly infections, cancer patients won’t be able to have chemotherapy and people won’t have access to have life-saving surgeries,” Barnett told News Medical. “In order to preserve the long-term efficacy of antibiotics, we need to further identify and understand new mechanisms of antibiotic resistance, which will aid in the discovery of new antibiotics and allow us to monitor AMR as it arises.”

More research and clinical studies are needed before this discovery can become technology that clinical laboratories can use to test if microbes are AMR. The scientists at Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases are now developing testing methods to detect the presence of the antibiotic resistant mechanism and determine the best treatment options.

“It is vital we stay one step ahead of the challenges of AMR and, as researchers, we should continue to explore how resistance develops in pathogens and design rapid accurate diagnostic methods and therapeutics,” Kalindu Rodrigo, a PhD student in the Barnett lab and one of the authors of the study told News Medical. “On the other hand, equal efforts should be taken at all levels of the society including patients, health professionals, and policymakers to help reduce the impacts of AMR.”

JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Australian Researchers Unearth a New Form of Antimicrobial Resistance

New Antimicrobial Resistance Mechanism Discovered in Streptococci

Host-dependent Resistance of Group A Streptococcus to Sulfamethoxazole Mediated by a Horizontally-acquired Reduced Folate Transporter

WHO: Antimicrobial Resistance

An Estimated 1.2 Million People Died in 2019 from Antibiotic-resistant Bacterial Infections

CDC Ranks Two More Drug-Resistant Microbes as ‘Urgent Threat’ to Americans; Clinical Laboratories Are Advised to Increase Awareness of Antimicrobial Resistance

Study Shows Huge Increase in Bloodstream Infections in Europe During First Two Years of COVID-19 Pandemic

Clinical laboratory data was key in identifying antibiotic-resistant bacteria responsible for surge in BSIs in hospitals and other healthcare facilities in 2020 and 2021

Clinical laboratory data compiled by the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net) shows that a massive increase in bloodstream infections (BSIs) occurred among EU nations during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study found that BSIs caused by certain antimicrobial-resistant (AMR) pathogens, known as superbugs, more than doubled in EU hospitals and healthcare facilities in 2020 and 2021. 

Microbiologists and clinical laboratory managers in the US may find it valuable to examine this peer-reviewed study into AMR involved in blood stream infections. It could contain useful insights for diagnosing patients suspected of BSIs in US hospitals where sepsis prevention and antibiotic stewardship programs are major priorities.

The EU researchers published their findings in the journal Eurosurveillance, titled, “Large Increase in Bloodstream Infections with Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter Species During the First Two years of the COVID-19 Pandemic, EU/EEA, 2020 and 2021.” The paper outlines what the author’s characterize as the alarming rise in BSIs caused by the Acinetobacter species of bacteria.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD

“Antimicrobial resistance undermines modern medicine and puts millions of lives at risk,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, Director-General, World Health Organization, in a WHO press release. “To truly understand the extent of the global threat and mount an effective public health response to [antimicrobial resistance], we must scale up microbiology testing and provide quality-assured data across all countries, not just wealthier ones.” Clinical laboratories in the US may be called upon to submit data on bloodstream infections in this country. (Photo copyright: WHO.)

Clinical Laboratories in EU Report Huge Increase in Carbapenem Resistance

To perform their study, researchers measured the increase in Acinetobacter BSIs between 2020 and 2021, the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Their data originated from qualitative regular antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) from blood samples collected by local clinical laboratories in the European Union/European economic area (EU/EEA) nations.

The researchers limited their dataset to Acinetobacter BSI information from the European medical laboratories that documented results of carbapenem susceptibility testing for the bacterial species.

Carbapenems are a class of very powerful antibiotics that are typically used to treat severe bacterial infections. A total of 255 EU/EEA clinical laboratories reported their data for the study. The scientists found that the percentages of Acinetobacter resistance varied considerably between EU/EEA nations, so they separated the countries into three different groups: 

  • Nations in Group One—The Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Estonia, Denmark, Germany, Iceland, Finland, Luxembourg, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, and Malta—experienced less than 10% resistance to carbapenems.
  • Nations in Group Two—Slovenia, Czech Republic, and Portugal—had carbapenem resistance between 10% and 50%.
  • Nations in Group Three—Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Poland, Spain, and Slovakia—demonstrated carbapenem resistance equal or greater than 50%.

The study also found that Acinetobacter BSIs rose by 57% and case counts increased by 114% in 2020 and 2021 when compared to 2018 and 2019. The percentage of resistance to carbapenems rose to 66% in 2020 and 2021, up from 48% in 2018 and 2019. 

Antimicrobial Resistance Especially High in Hospital Settings

The researchers further arranged the data into three hospital ward types: intensive care unit (ICU), non-ICU, and unknown. The increase in BSIs caused by Acinetobacter species resistant to carbapenems was greater in ICU-admitted individuals (144%) than non-ICU-admitted individuals (41%).

There are more than 50 species of Acinetobacter bacteria and various strains are often resistant to many types of commonly-used antibiotics. Symptoms of an Acinetobacter infection usually appear within 12 days after a person comes into contact with the bacteria. These symptoms may include:

  • Blood infections,
  • Urinary tract infections,
  • Pneumonia, and
  • Wound infections.

Healthy people have a low risk of contracting an Acinetobacter infection with the highest number of these infections occurring in hospitals and other healthcare settings. Acinetobacter bacteria can survive for a long time on surfaces and equipment, and those working in healthcare or receiving treatment are in the highest risk category.

The prevalence of this type of bacteria increases in relation to the use of medical equipment, such as ventilators and catheters, as well as antibiotic treatments.

WHO Report Validates EARS-Net Research

In December of 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS) report that revealed the presence of an increasing resistance to antibiotics in some bacterial infections. That report showed high levels (above 50%) of resistance in bacteria that frequently caused bloodstream infections in hospitals, such as Klebsiella pneumonia and Acinetobacter.

The WHO report examined data collected during 2020 from 87 different countries and found that common bacterial infections are becoming increasingly resistant to treatments. Both Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter can be life threatening and often require treatment with strong antibiotics, such as carbapenems.

More research is needed to determine the reasons behind increases in Acinetobacter infections as reported in European hospitals and other healthcare settings, and to ascertain the extent to which they are related to hospitalizations and the upsurge in antimicrobial resistance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Microbiologists and clinical laboratory managers in the US may want to learn more about the fIndings of this European study involving AMR and use those insights to plan accordingly for any future increase in bloodstream infections in this country. 

JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Enormous Rise in Acinetobacter Bloodstream Infection Cases in Initial Two Years of COVID-19

COVID Pandemic Led to Surge in Superbug Infections, EU Agency Says

Large Increase in Bloodstream Infections with Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter Species During the First 2 years of the COVID-19 Pandemic, EU/EEA, 2020 and 2021

Antimicrobial Resistance in the EU/EEA (EARS-Net)–Annual Epidemiological Report for 2021

Acinetobacter: What to know

Some Bloodstream Infection Bacteria Grew Resistant to Last-resort Drugs in 2020 – WHO

Report Signals Increasing Resistance to Antibiotics in Bacterial Infections in Humans and Need for Better Data

Carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter

Monkeypox Outbreak Subsides in US, Europe, But Public Health Concerns Remain

Experts cite high vaccination rates and behavioral changes among at-risk groups, but warn about complacency; clinical laboratories should remain vigilant

In July, Scott Gottlieb, MD, Commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from May 2017 to April 2019, wrote an op-ed in The New York Times titled, “Monkeypox Is About to Become the Next Public Health Failure.” In it, he wrote, “Our country’s response to monkeypox has been plagued by the same shortcomings we had with COVID-19.” But has it improved? Clinical laboratory leaders and pathology group managers will find it informative to find out what has taken place since Gottlieb made his stark prediction.

The global monkeypox outbreak that emerged last spring appears to have subsided in the US and Europe, though it remains to be seen if the disease can be completely eradicated, according to multiple media reports. As of Oct. 26, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a 7-day rolling average of 30 cases per day in the US, down from a peak of nearly 440/day in early August.

Cases are also down in cities that earlier reported heavy outbreaks. For example, the New York City Health Department reported a 7-day average of just two cases per day on Oct. 25, compared with 73/day on July 30.

And the San Francisco Department of Public Health announced on Oct. 20 that it would end the city’s public health emergency on monkeypox (MPX) effective on Oct. 31. “MPX cases have slowed to less than one case per day and more than 27,000 San Franciscans are now vaccinated against the virus,” the agency stated in a press release.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD

“Once again, we caution that a declining outbreak can be the most dangerous outbreak, because it can tempt us to think that the crisis is over and to let down our guard,” said World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, in an Oct. 12 global press briefing. “That’s not what WHO is doing. We are continuing to work with countries around the world to increase their testing capacity, and to monitor trends in the outbreak.” Clinical laboratories should not assume the outbreak has passed but continue to be vigilant and prepared for increased demand in monkeypox testing. (Photo copyright: ITU Pictures.)

Changing Behavior Lowers Infection Rates

In addition to high vaccination rates, public health experts have attributed the decline to behavioral changes among at-risk groups. “There were really substantial changes among men who have sex [with] men,” infectious disease physician Shira Doron, MD, of Tufts Medical Center in Boston, told ABC News.

On September 2, the CDC published the results of a survey indicating that about half of men who have sex with men “reported reducing their number of sex partners, one-time sexual encounters, and use of dating apps because of the monkeypox outbreak.”

Another likely factor is the disease’s limited transmissibility. “Initially, there was a lot of concern that monkeypox could spread widely at daycares or in schools, but, overall, there has been very little spread among children,” NPR reported.  

But citing multiple studies, the NPR story noted “that often there isn’t very much virus in the upper respiratory tract,” where it might spread through talking or coughing. “Instead, the highest levels of virus occur on sores found on the skin and inside the anus.”

These studies, along with earlier research, “explain why monkeypox is spreading almost exclusively through contact during sex, especially anal and oral sex, during the current outbreak,” NPR reported.

Monkeypox Could Mutate, experts say

Despite the promising numbers, public health experts are warning that monkeypox could remain as a long-term threat to public health. According to an article in Nature, “At best, the outbreak might fizzle out over the next few months or years. At worst, the virus could become endemic outside Africa by reaching new animal reservoirs, making it nearly impossible to eradicate.”

In addition to the limited transmissibility of the virus, Nature noted that the outbreak stems from a relatively mild form of the pathogen and is rarely fatal. As of Oct. 28, the CDC reported a total of just six confirmed deaths in the US out of a total of 28,302 confirmed cases since the first infections were reported in May.

It is possible that the virus could mutate into a more contagious form, but Nature noted that monkeypox is a DNA virus, and that they tend to mutate more slowly than RNA viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 and HIV. Nevertheless, University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Medicine bioinformatician Elliot Lefkowitz, PhD, warned that a “worrisome mutation” could arise if the outbreak continues for much longer.

Another expert, Jessica Justman, MD, infectious disease specialist, epidemiologist, and associate professor at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, cautioned that declining case numbers might not reflect the true prevalence of the disease.

“I have no confidence that all the people who need to be tested are being tested,” she told Nature. She expressed concerns that people could resume risky behavior if they think the danger has passed.

Another question is whether currently available vaccines offer long-lasting protection. And though reported case numbers are down in the US and Europe, they are rising in parts of Africa and South America, Nature noted.

Gottlieb’s Dire Prediction

The decline in new infections followed dire warnings last summer about the possible consequences of the outbreak. In his New York Times op-ed, former Gottlieb criticized the CDC for being slow to test for the virus. He wrote, “[I]f monkeypox gains a permanent foothold in the United States and becomes an endemic virus that joins our circulating repertoire of pathogens, it will be one of the worst public health failures in modern times not only because of the pain and peril of the disease but also because it was so avoidable.”

At the time of his writing, Gottlieb was right to be concerned. On July 29, the CDC reported a seven-day moving average of 390 reported cases per day. According to the federal agency, a reported case “Includes either the positive laboratory test report date, CDC call center reporting date, or case data entry date into CDC’s emergency response common operating platform, DCIPHER.”

Quashing the outbreak, Gottlieb estimated, would have required about 15,000 tests per week among people presenting symptoms resembling monkeypox. But between mid-May and the end of June, he noted, the CDC had tested only about 2,000 samples, according to the federal agency’s July 15 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).

As a remedy, Gottlieb called on the Biden administration to re-focus the CDC’s efforts more on disease control “by transferring some of its disease prevention work to other agencies,” including the FDA.

Perhaps his suggestions helped. Confirmed monkeypox case are way down. Nevertheless, clinical laboratory leaders should continue to be vigilant. Growing demand for monkeypox testing could indicate an increase in reported cases as we enter the 2022 influenza season, which is predicted to be worse than previous years. Dark Daily covered this impending threat in “Australia’s Severe Flu Season Could be a Harbinger of Increased Influenza Cases in US and Canada Straining Already Burdened Clinical Laboratories.”

Stephen Beale

Related Information:

Monkeypox Cases in the US Are Way Down—Can the Virus Be Eliminated?

What Does the Future Look Like for Monkeypox?

NYC Has Almost Eliminated Monkeypox. An NYU Biology Prof on What the City Needs to Reach Zero

New York and Nevada Announce First Monkeypox Deaths as Official CDC Tally Rises to Four

Monkeypox Update: FDA Takes Significant Action to Help Expand Access to Testing

Gottlieb Predicts Monkeypox Will Become Public Health Failure

Monkeypox Is About to Become the Next Public Health Failure

Australia’s Severe Flu Season Could be a Harbinger of Increased Influenza Cases in US and Canada Straining Already Burdened Clinical Laboratories

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