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Clinical Laboratories and Pathology Groups

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Artificial Intelligence in the Operating Room: Dutch Scientists Develop AI Application That Informs Surgical Decision Making during Cancer Surgery

Speedy DNA sequencing and on-the-spot digital imaging may change the future of anatomic pathology procedures during surgery

Researchers at the Center for Molecular Medicine (CMM) at UMC Utrecht, a leading international university medical center in the Netherlands, have paired artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning with DNA sequencing to develop a diagnostic tool cancer surgeons can use during surgeries to determine in minutes—while the patient is still on the operating table—whether they have fully removed all the cancerous tissue.

The method, “involves a computer scanning segments of a tumor’s DNA and alighting on certain chemical modifications that can yield a detailed diagnosis of the type and even subtype of the brain tumor,” according to The New York Times, which added, “That diagnosis, generated during the early stages of an hours-long surgery, can help surgeons decide how aggressively to operate, … In the future, the method may also help steer doctors toward treatments tailored for a specific subtype of tumor.”

This technology has the potential to reduce the need for frozen sections, should additional development and studies confirm that it accurately and reliably shows surgeons that all cancerous cells were fully removed. Many anatomic pathologists would welcome such a development because of the time pressure and stress associated with this procedure. Pathologists know that the patient is still in surgery and the surgeons are waiting for the results of the frozen section. Most pathologists would consider fewer frozen sections—with better patient outcomes—to be an improvement in patient care.

The UMC Utrecht scientist published their findings in the journal Nature titled, “Ultra-Fast Deep-Learned CNS Tumor Classification during Surgery.”

 “It’s imperative that the tumor subtype is known at the time of surgery,” Jeroen de Ridder, PhD (above), associate professor in the Center for Molecular Medicine at UMC Utrecht and one of the study leaders, told The New York Times. “What we have now uniquely enabled is to allow this very fine-grained, robust, detailed diagnosis to be performed already during the surgery. It can figure out itself what it’s looking at and make a robust classification,” he added. How this discovery affects the role of anatomic pathologists and pathology laboratories during cancer surgeries remains to be seen. (Photo copyright: UMC Utrecht.)

Rapid DNA Sequencing Impacts Brain Tumor Surgeries

The UMC Utrecht scientists employed Oxford Nanopore’s “real-time DNA sequencing technology to address the challenges posed by central nervous system (CNS) tumors, one of the most lethal type of tumor, especially among children,” according to an Oxford Nanopore news release.

The researchers called their new machine learning AI application the “Sturgeon.”

According to The New York Times, “The new method uses a faster genetic sequencing technique and applies it only to a small slice of the cellular genome, allowing it to return results before a surgeon has started operating on the edges of a tumor.”

Jeroen de Ridder, PhD, an associate professor in the Center for Molecular Medicine at UMC Utrecht, told The New York Times that Sturgeon is “powerful enough to deliver a diagnosis with sparse genetic data, akin to someone recognizing an image based on only 1% of its pixels, and from an unknown portion of the image.” Ridder is also a principal investigator at the Oncode Institute, an independent research center in the Netherlands.

The researchers tested Sturgeon during 25 live brain surgeries and compared the results to an anatomic pathologist’s standard method of microscope tissue examination. “The new approach delivered 18 correct diagnoses and failed to reach the needed confidence threshold in the other seven cases. It turned around its diagnoses in less than 90 minutes, the study reported—short enough for it to inform decisions during an operation,” The New York Times reported.

But there were issues. Where the minute samples contain healthy brain tissue, identifying an adequate number of tumor markers could become problematic. Under those conditions, surgeons can ask an anatomic pathologist to “flag the [tissue samples] with the most tumor for sequencing, said PhD candidate Marc Pagès-Gallego, a bioinformatician at UMC Utrecht and a co-author of the study,” The New York Times noted. 

“Implementation itself is less straightforward than often suggested,” Sebastian Brandner, MD, a professor of neuropathology at University College London, told The Times. “Sequencing and classifying tumor cells often still required significant expertise in bioinformatics as well as workers who are able to run, troubleshoot, and repair the technology,” he added. 

“Brain tumors are also the most well-suited to being classified by the chemical modifications that the new method analyzes; not all cancers can be diagnosed that way,” The Times pointed out.

Thus, the research continues. The new method is being applied to other surgical samples as well. The study authors said other facilities are utilizing the method on their own surgical tissue samples, “suggesting that it can work in other people’s hands.” But more work is needed, The Times reported.

UMC Utrecht Researchers Receive Hanarth Grant

To expand their research into the Sturgeon’s capabilities, the UMC Utrecht research team recently received funds from the Hanarth Fonds, which was founded in 2018 to “promote and enhance the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning to improve the diagnosis, treatment, and outcome of patients with cancer,” according to the organization’s website.

The researchers will investigate ways the Sturgeon AI algorithm can be used to identify tumors of the central nervous system during surgery, a UMC Utrecht news release states. These type of tumors, according to the researchers, are difficult to examine without surgery.

“This poses a challenge for neurosurgeons. They have to operate on a tumor without knowing what type of tumor it is. As a result, there is a chance that the patient will need another operation,” said de Ridder in the news release.

The Sturgeon application solves this problem. It identifies the “exact type of tumor during surgery. This allows the appropriate surgical strategy to be applied immediately,” the news release notes.

The Hanarth funds will enable Jeroen and his team to develop a variant of the Sturgeon that uses “cerebrospinal fluid instead of (part of) the tumor. This will allow the type of tumor to be determined already before surgery. The main challenge is that cerebrospinal fluid contains a mixture of tumor and normal DNA. AI models will be trained to take this into account.”

The UMC Utrecht scientists’ breakthrough is another example of how organizations and research groups are working to shorten time to answer, compared to standard anatomic pathology methods. They are combining developing technologies in ways that achieve these goals.

—Kristin Althea O’Connor

Related Information:

Ultra-fast Deep-Learned CNS Tumor Classification during Surgery

New AI Tool Diagnoses Brain Tumors on the Operating Table

Pediatric Brain Tumor Types Revealed Mid-Surgery with Nanopore Sequencing and AI

AI Speeds Up Identification Brain Tumor Type

Four New Cancer Research Projects at UMC Utrecht Receive Hanarth Grants

Rapid Nanopore Sequencing, Machine Learning Enable Tumor Classification during Surgery

New American Gastroenterological Association Guidelines for Managing Crohn’s Disease Suggest More Clinical Laboratory Tests and Fewer Colonoscopies

As doctors become more familiar with using biomarkers to monitor Crohn’s disease, clinical laboratories may play a greater role in that process

New evidence-based guidelines from the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) that call for using specific biomarkers to help manage Crohn’s disease (CD) may decrease the number of invasive procedures patients must undergo and increase the role clinical laboratories play in monitoring the disease.

The new AGA guidelines “recommend using the C-reactive protein (CRP) biomarker in blood and the fecal calprotectin (FCP) biomarker in stool to measure inflammation levels and assess whether Crohn’s disease is in remission or active,” Medical News Today reported.

Crohn’s disease is a chronic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) that causes inflammation in the digestive tract, primarily in the small and large intestine. The cause of the disease is unknown, but genetics may play a role.

Typically, CD patients must undergo repeated colonoscopies to monitor the disease’s progression or remission. This has long been standard practice. Now, however, “AGA recommends the use of biomarkers in addition to colonoscopy and imaging studies,” according to an AGA news release. This hints at a greater role for clinical laboratories in helping physicians manage patients with Crohn’s Disease.

“Patients’ symptoms do not always match endoscopic findings, so biomarkers are a useful tool to understand and monitor the status of inflammation and guide decision making in patients with Crohn’s disease,” said gastroenterologist Siddharth Singh, MD, Assistant Professor of Medicine at UC San Diego Health and a co-author of the new AGA guidelines.

The AGA’s new guidelines demonstrate how medical science is generating new insights about how multiple biomarkers can be associated for diagnosis/management of a disease in ways that change the standard of care, particularly if it can reduce invasive procedures for the patient by the use of less invasive methods (such as a venous blood draw instead of a colonoscopy).

The AGA published its new guidelines in the journal Gastroenterology titled, “AGA Clinical Practice Guideline on the Role of Biomarkers for the Management of Crohn’s Disease.”

Ashwin Ananthakrishnan MD

“Based on this guideline, biomarkers are no longer considered experimental and should be an integral part of inflammatory bowel disease care,” Ashwin Ananthakrishnan MD (above), a gastroenterologist at Massachusetts General Hospital and co-author of the guidelines, told Medical News Today. Under the new AGA guidelines, clinical laboratories will play a greater role in helping patients monitor their disease. (Photo copyright: Massachusetts General Hospital.)

Patient’s Needs Determine Biomarker vs Endoscopy Monitoring

AGA’s new guidelines could give patients a more comfortable, cost-effective, and possibly more efficient treatment plan to manage their Crohn’s disease. That’s even true if a patient’s Crohn’s disease is in remission.

With these new guidelines, Crohn’s disease patients in remission would only need their biomarkers to be checked every six to 12 months. Patients with active symptoms would need their biomarkers checked roughly every two to four months.

Biomarker testing can be seen as a useful addition to Crohn’s disease care rather than a full replacement of other forms of care. For example, the new AGA guidelines do not fully omit imaging studies and colonoscopies from treatment. Rather, they are recommended in treatment plans based on the patient’s needs.

In their Gastroenterology paper, the AGA authors wrote, “A biomarker-based monitoring strategy involves routine assessment of symptoms and noninvasive biomarkers of inflammation in patients with CD in symptomatic remission to inform ongoing management. In this situation, normalization of biomarkers is an adequate treatment target—asymptomatic patients with normal biomarkers would continue current management without endoscopy, whereas those with elevated biomarkers would undergo endoscopy.”

Fecal Matter Biomarkers

In speaking with Medical News Today on the benefits of using fecal biomarkers to assess a patient’s disease maintenance, gastroenterologist Jesse Stondell, MD, an Associate Clinical Professor at UC Davis Health, said, “If we start a patient on therapy, they’re not responding appropriately, they’re still having a lot of symptoms, we can check that fecal calprotectin test and get a very quick sense of if things are working or not.

“If the calprotectin is normal, it could be reassuring that there may be other reasons for their symptoms, and that the medicine’s working. But if they have symptoms, and a calprotectin is elevated, that’s a signal that we have to worry the medicine is not working. And that we need to change therapy in that patient,” he added.

“This is a win for Crohn’s disease patients,” Ashwin Ananthakrishnan, MD, a gastroenterologist at Massachusetts General Hospital and co-author of the AGA’s new guidelines, told Medical News Today. “Biomarkers are usually easier to obtain, less invasive, more cost-effective than frequent colonoscopies, and can be assessed more frequently for tighter disease control and better long-term outcomes in Crohn’s disease.”

Clinical laboratories should expect these guidelines to increase demand for the processing of blood or fecal matter biomarker testing. As Crohn’s disease monitoring becomes more dependent on biomarker testing, clinical labs will play a critical role in that process.

—Ashley Croce

Related Information:

Fewer Colonoscopies? New Crohn’s Guidelines Emphasize Blood, Stool Tests as Management Tool

AGA Clinical Practice Guideline on the Role of Biomarkers for the Management of Crohn’s Disease

Biomarker- vs Endoscopy-Based Monitoring Strategy in Crohn’s Disease

First Comprehensive Guideline on Using Biomarkers for Monitoring Crohn’s Disease

National Library of Medicine: Crohn’s Disease

Crohn’s Disease Is on the Rise

In Early Weeks of Flu Season, COVID-19 Patients Show Milder Symptoms as SARS-CoV-2 Continues to Evolve

Doctors report difficulty differentiating COVID-19 from other viral infections, impacting clinical laboratory test orders

Because the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is in the same family of viruses that cause the common cold and influenza, virologists expected this virus—which caused the global COVID-19 pandemic—would evolve and mutate into a milder form of infection. Early evidence from this influenza season seems consistent with these expectations in ways that will influence how clinical laboratories offer tests for different respiratory viruses.

While new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus continue to appear, indications are that early in this flu season individuals infected with the more recent variants are experiencing milder symptoms when compared to the last few years. Doctors report they find it increasingly difficult to distinguish COVID-19 infections from allergies or the common cold because patients’ symptoms are less severe, according to NBC News.

This, of course, makes it challenging for doctors to know the most appropriate clinical laboratory tests to order to help them make accurate diagnoses.

Erick Eiting, MD

“It isn’t the same typical symptoms that we were seeing before. It’s a lot of congestion, sometimes sneezing, usually a mild sore throat,” Erick Eiting, MD, Vice Chair of Operations for Emergency Medicine at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City, told NBC News. “Just about everyone who I’ve seen has had really mild symptoms. The only way that we knew that it was COVID was because we happened to be testing them.” Knowing which tests for respiratory viruses that clinical laboratories need to perform may soon be the challenge for doctors. (Photo copyright: Mt. Sinai.)

Milder COVID-19 Symptoms Follow a Pattern

Previous hallmarks of a COVID-19 infection included:

  • Loss of taste,
  • loss of smell,
  • dry cough,
  • fever,
  • sore throat,
  • diarrhea,
  • body aches,
  • headaches.

However, physicians now observe milder symptoms of the infection that follow a distinct pattern and which are mostly concentrated in the upper respiratory tract

Grace McComsey, MD, Vice President of Research and Associate Chief Scientific Officer at University Hospitals Health System (UH) in Cleveland, Ohio, told NBC News that some patients have described their throat pain as “a burning sensation like they never had, even with Strep in the past.”

“Then, as soon as the congestion happens, it seems like the throat gets better,” she added.

In addition to the congestion, some patients are experiencing:

  • headache,
  • fever,
  • chills,
  • fatigue,
  • muscle aches,
  • post-nasal drip. 

McComsey noted that fatigue and muscle aches usually only last a couple of days, but that the congestion can sometimes last a few weeks. She also estimated that only around 10-20% of her newest COVID patients are losing their sense of smell or taste, whereas early in the pandemic that number was closer to 60-70% of her patients. 

Doctors also noted that fewer patients are requiring hospitalization and that many recover without the use of antivirals or other treatments.

“Especially since July, when this recent mini-surge started, younger people that have upper respiratory symptoms—cough, runny nose, sore throat, fever and chills—99% of the time they go home with supportive care,” said Michael Daignault, MD, an emergency physician at Providence Saint Joseph Medical Center in Burbank, California.

Milder SARS-CoV-2 Variants Should Still be Taken Seriously

Doctors have varying opinions regarding why the current COVID-19 variants are milder. Some believe the recent variants simply aren’t as good at infecting the lungs as previous variants.

“Overall, the severity of COVID-19 is much lower than it was a year ago and two years ago,” Dan Barouch, MD, PhD, Director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, told NBC News. “That’s not because the variants are less robust. It’s because the immune responses are higher.”

McComsey added that she doesn’t think mild cases should be ignored as she is still seeing new cases of long COVID with rapid heart rate and exercise intolerance being among the most common lingering symptoms. Re-infections also add to the risks associated with long COVID.

“What we’re seeing in long COVID clinics is not just the older strains that continue to be symptomatic and not getting better—we’re adding to that number with the new strain as well,” McComsey said. “That’s why I’m not taking this new wave any less seriously.”

Clinical Laboratory COVID-19 Testing May Decrease

According to Andrew Read, PhD, Interim Senior Vice President for Research and Evan Pugh University Professor of Biology and Entomology at Pennsylvania State University, there is nothing unexpected or startling about the coronavirus acquiring new mutations.

“When a mutation confers an interesting new trick that’s got an advantage, it’s going to be popping up in many different places,” Read told the New York Times. “Everything we see is just consistent with how you imagine virus evolution proceeding in a situation where a new virus has jumped into a novel host population.”

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID-19 Data Tracker—which reports weekly hospitalizations, deaths, emergency department (ED) visits, and COVID-19 test positivity results—shows infection trends fluctuating, but overall, they are decreasing.

  • For the week of October 21, 2023, there were 16,186 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 compared to the highest week recorded (January 15, 2022) with 150,674 hospitalizations nationwide.
  • The highest number of deaths reported in a single week were 25,974 for the week of January 8, 2021, while 637 patients perished from COVID-19 during the week of October 21, 2023.
  • In January of 2021, COVID accounted for 13.8% of all ED visits and in October 2023, COVID-19 was responsible for 1.3% of ED visits. 

“What I think we’re seeing is the virus continuing to evolve, and then leading to waves of infection, hopefully mostly mild in severity,” Barouch told The New York Times.

As severity of COVID-19 infections continues to fall, so, presumably, will demand for COVID-19 testing which has been a source of revenue for clinical laboratories for several years.

—JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Sore Throat, Then Congestion: Common COVID Symptoms Follow a Pattern Now, Doctors Say

COVID Continues to Rise, but Experts Remain Optimistic

What Is the Order of COVID Symptoms This Fall?

COVID Symptoms Now Follow a Distinct Pattern, Doctors Report

How are COVID-19 Symptoms Changing?

What Are the Mild Symptoms of COVID-19, and When Should You See a Doctor?

Doctors Admit They Can’t Tell COVID Apart from Allergies or the Common Cold Anymore—Highlighting How Mild Virus has Become

The Evolution of SARS-CoV-2

UCSF Researchers Identify Genetic Mutation That Promotes an Asymptomatic Response in Humans to COVID-19 Infection

Former Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes Fights Prison Sentence While Claiming She Was ‘Not Being Authentic’ with Public Image

Founder of now defunct clinical laboratory testing company was supposed to report to prison April 27, but a last-minute legal challenge has delayed that judge’s order

Anatomic pathologists and clinical laboratory leaders who are following the continuing saga of Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes may be interested to learn that the former CEO’s attorneys are making last-minute legal moves to delay her prison sentence while she appeals her guilty verdict. At the same time, Holmes appears to be on a mission to revamp her public image.

Apparently, the twists and turns in Holmes’ never-ending story are not yet over when it comes to Theranos, its maligned clinical laboratory technology, and the company’s convicted founder.

On May 7, The New York Times (NYT) profiled Holmes in a massive, 5,000-word story that attempted to portray her as a flawed businessperson who now prefers a simpler life with her partner and two young children.

Elizabeth Holmes

“I made so many mistakes and there was so much I didn’t know and understand, and I feel like when you do it wrong, it’s like you really internalize it in a deep way,” disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes recently told The New York Times. Anatomic pathologists and clinical laboratory directors impacted by the revelation that Theranos hide the fact that its blood testing technology was faulty may not sympathize with Holmes’ position. (Photo copyright: Stuart Isett/Fortune Global Forum.)

Legal Team Secures Last-Minute Delay in Holmes’ Surrender

Holmes admitted to the news outlet that the deep voice she used in public, along with her black turtleneck sweaters, were part of a character she created.

“I believed it would be how I would be good at business and taken seriously and not taken as a little girl or a girl who didn’t have good technical ideas,” Holmes told the NYT. “Maybe people picked up on that not being authentic, since it wasn’t.”

Holmes was scheduled to report to a federal prison in Texas on April 27 after several unsuccessful motions were filed to delay the start of her sentence for the fraud convictions. Dark Daily covered Holmes’ conviction in “Disgraced Theranos Founder Elizabeth Holmes to Serve 11 Years, Three Months in Prison, Ending the Latest Chapter in the Story of the Failed Clinical Laboratory Company.”

However, on April 26, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals stayed her surrender date until that court rules on Holmes’ latest bid to stay free while she appeals her conviction, The Washington Post reported.

Just days earlier on April 10, a district court judge ruled that Holmes would not stay free while her appeal progresses. The 9th Circuit announcement curtailed the district court ruling. It is not known when the 9th Circuit will issue a decision in the matter.

In “Theranos Ex-CEO Elizabeth Holmes Convicted on Three Counts of Wire Fraud and One Count of Conspiracy to Commit Fraud after Seven Days of Jury Deliberations,” Dark Daily reported that Holmes was convicted in January 2022 of defrauding Theranos investors out of $121 million. Theranos marketed a blood-testing machine called Edison, although it was later uncovered that results attributable to the technology were actually produced on traditional clinical laboratory analyzers.

New York Times Reports on Holmes’ Change in Personality

The somewhat odd New York Times profile of Holmes varied between reflections on her past crimes and on her current personal life, where she is known as “Liz.”

“In case you’re wondering, Holmes speaks in a soft, slightly low, but totally unremarkable voice—no hint of the throaty contralto she used while running her blood-testing startup Theranos, now defunct,” the NYT reported.

Holmes still lives in California with her partner, Billy Evans (whose parents own a luxury hotel chain), and their two children: a son who is almost two years old and a daughter born in February. She works at home for a rape-crisis hotline.

Balwani’s Role in Theranos Again Publicly Debated

In the NYT interview, Holmes talked about being raped while a student at Stanford University and about alleged abuse from her Theranos business partner and former lover, Ramesh “Sunny” Balwani.

Balwani, Theranos’ former President and Chief Operating Officer, began his 12-year, 11-month prison sentence on April 20 in a Southern California facility for his role in defrauding Theranos investors, KTVU TV reported. Balwani has also appealed his conviction on the 12 fraud charges.

Holmes reiterated to the NYT past statements she made in court that Balwani allegedly exerted social and sexual control over her when they both worked at Theranos and were in a romantic relationship.

“She lived by entrepreneurial tenets that she said Balwani told her she needed to follow in order to succeed,” the NYT reported. “These included not sleeping for more than five hours, going vegan, getting to the office daily by 5 a.m., no alcohol.”

“[I] deferred to [Balwani] in the areas he oversaw because I believed he knew better than I did,” including on clinical lab activities at Theranos, Holmes said.

Balwani’s attorneys dismissed Holmes’ allegations, as they have in the past.

Clinical laboratory professionals can reasonably make two broad observations from the continuing saga of Theranos and Elizabeth Holmes:

  • Justice for healthcare crimes is often deferred for those who have influence and money.
  • Holmes’ image overhaul may be a last-ditch effort to sway public opinion about her, in the event that she receives a new jury trial as a result of her appeal.

Dark Daily will continue to keep you updated on further developments in this case.

Scott Wallask

Related Information:

Liz Holmes Wants You to Forget about Elizabeth

Hot Startup Theranos Has Struggled with Its Blood-Test Technology

Theranos Ex-CEO Elizabeth Holmes Convicted on Three Counts of Wire Fraud and One Count of Conspiracy to Commit Fraud after Seven Days of Jury Deliberations

Holmes, Balwani Get Lengthy Prison Terms for Theranos Fraud

Disgraced Theranos Founder Elizabeth Holmes to Serve 11 Years, Three Months in Prison, Ending the Latest Chapter in the Story of the Failed Clinical Laboratory Company

Federal Prosecutors Seek $878 Million Restitution from Former Theranos Founder/CEO Elizabeth Holmes

Monkeypox Outbreak Subsides in US, Europe, But Public Health Concerns Remain

Experts cite high vaccination rates and behavioral changes among at-risk groups, but warn about complacency; clinical laboratories should remain vigilant

In July, Scott Gottlieb, MD, Commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from May 2017 to April 2019, wrote an op-ed in The New York Times titled, “Monkeypox Is About to Become the Next Public Health Failure.” In it, he wrote, “Our country’s response to monkeypox has been plagued by the same shortcomings we had with COVID-19.” But has it improved? Clinical laboratory leaders and pathology group managers will find it informative to find out what has taken place since Gottlieb made his stark prediction.

The global monkeypox outbreak that emerged last spring appears to have subsided in the US and Europe, though it remains to be seen if the disease can be completely eradicated, according to multiple media reports. As of Oct. 26, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a 7-day rolling average of 30 cases per day in the US, down from a peak of nearly 440/day in early August.

Cases are also down in cities that earlier reported heavy outbreaks. For example, the New York City Health Department reported a 7-day average of just two cases per day on Oct. 25, compared with 73/day on July 30.

And the San Francisco Department of Public Health announced on Oct. 20 that it would end the city’s public health emergency on monkeypox (MPX) effective on Oct. 31. “MPX cases have slowed to less than one case per day and more than 27,000 San Franciscans are now vaccinated against the virus,” the agency stated in a press release.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD

“Once again, we caution that a declining outbreak can be the most dangerous outbreak, because it can tempt us to think that the crisis is over and to let down our guard,” said World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, in an Oct. 12 global press briefing. “That’s not what WHO is doing. We are continuing to work with countries around the world to increase their testing capacity, and to monitor trends in the outbreak.” Clinical laboratories should not assume the outbreak has passed but continue to be vigilant and prepared for increased demand in monkeypox testing. (Photo copyright: ITU Pictures.)

Changing Behavior Lowers Infection Rates

In addition to high vaccination rates, public health experts have attributed the decline to behavioral changes among at-risk groups. “There were really substantial changes among men who have sex [with] men,” infectious disease physician Shira Doron, MD, of Tufts Medical Center in Boston, told ABC News.

On September 2, the CDC published the results of a survey indicating that about half of men who have sex with men “reported reducing their number of sex partners, one-time sexual encounters, and use of dating apps because of the monkeypox outbreak.”

Another likely factor is the disease’s limited transmissibility. “Initially, there was a lot of concern that monkeypox could spread widely at daycares or in schools, but, overall, there has been very little spread among children,” NPR reported.  

But citing multiple studies, the NPR story noted “that often there isn’t very much virus in the upper respiratory tract,” where it might spread through talking or coughing. “Instead, the highest levels of virus occur on sores found on the skin and inside the anus.”

These studies, along with earlier research, “explain why monkeypox is spreading almost exclusively through contact during sex, especially anal and oral sex, during the current outbreak,” NPR reported.

Monkeypox Could Mutate, experts say

Despite the promising numbers, public health experts are warning that monkeypox could remain as a long-term threat to public health. According to an article in Nature, “At best, the outbreak might fizzle out over the next few months or years. At worst, the virus could become endemic outside Africa by reaching new animal reservoirs, making it nearly impossible to eradicate.”

In addition to the limited transmissibility of the virus, Nature noted that the outbreak stems from a relatively mild form of the pathogen and is rarely fatal. As of Oct. 28, the CDC reported a total of just six confirmed deaths in the US out of a total of 28,302 confirmed cases since the first infections were reported in May.

It is possible that the virus could mutate into a more contagious form, but Nature noted that monkeypox is a DNA virus, and that they tend to mutate more slowly than RNA viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 and HIV. Nevertheless, University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Medicine bioinformatician Elliot Lefkowitz, PhD, warned that a “worrisome mutation” could arise if the outbreak continues for much longer.

Another expert, Jessica Justman, MD, infectious disease specialist, epidemiologist, and associate professor at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, cautioned that declining case numbers might not reflect the true prevalence of the disease.

“I have no confidence that all the people who need to be tested are being tested,” she told Nature. She expressed concerns that people could resume risky behavior if they think the danger has passed.

Another question is whether currently available vaccines offer long-lasting protection. And though reported case numbers are down in the US and Europe, they are rising in parts of Africa and South America, Nature noted.

Gottlieb’s Dire Prediction

The decline in new infections followed dire warnings last summer about the possible consequences of the outbreak. In his New York Times op-ed, former Gottlieb criticized the CDC for being slow to test for the virus. He wrote, “[I]f monkeypox gains a permanent foothold in the United States and becomes an endemic virus that joins our circulating repertoire of pathogens, it will be one of the worst public health failures in modern times not only because of the pain and peril of the disease but also because it was so avoidable.”

At the time of his writing, Gottlieb was right to be concerned. On July 29, the CDC reported a seven-day moving average of 390 reported cases per day. According to the federal agency, a reported case “Includes either the positive laboratory test report date, CDC call center reporting date, or case data entry date into CDC’s emergency response common operating platform, DCIPHER.”

Quashing the outbreak, Gottlieb estimated, would have required about 15,000 tests per week among people presenting symptoms resembling monkeypox. But between mid-May and the end of June, he noted, the CDC had tested only about 2,000 samples, according to the federal agency’s July 15 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).

As a remedy, Gottlieb called on the Biden administration to re-focus the CDC’s efforts more on disease control “by transferring some of its disease prevention work to other agencies,” including the FDA.

Perhaps his suggestions helped. Confirmed monkeypox case are way down. Nevertheless, clinical laboratory leaders should continue to be vigilant. Growing demand for monkeypox testing could indicate an increase in reported cases as we enter the 2022 influenza season, which is predicted to be worse than previous years. Dark Daily covered this impending threat in “Australia’s Severe Flu Season Could be a Harbinger of Increased Influenza Cases in US and Canada Straining Already Burdened Clinical Laboratories.”

Stephen Beale

Related Information:

Monkeypox Cases in the US Are Way Down—Can the Virus Be Eliminated?

What Does the Future Look Like for Monkeypox?

NYC Has Almost Eliminated Monkeypox. An NYU Biology Prof on What the City Needs to Reach Zero

New York and Nevada Announce First Monkeypox Deaths as Official CDC Tally Rises to Four

Monkeypox Update: FDA Takes Significant Action to Help Expand Access to Testing

Gottlieb Predicts Monkeypox Will Become Public Health Failure

Monkeypox Is About to Become the Next Public Health Failure

Australia’s Severe Flu Season Could be a Harbinger of Increased Influenza Cases in US and Canada Straining Already Burdened Clinical Laboratories

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