News, Analysis, Trends, Management Innovations for
Clinical Laboratories and Pathology Groups

Hosted by Robert Michel

News, Analysis, Trends, Management Innovations for
Clinical Laboratories and Pathology Groups

Hosted by Robert Michel
Sign In

PwC Survey Finds 50% of Companies Plan Layoffs and 83% Intend to Move Forward with Streamlined Workforces

Amid cost pressures, healthcare providers also plan to cut staff though some jobs are plentiful; adequate staffing at medical laboratories continues to be a challenge

Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent “Great Resignation,” masses of people have left the workforce and companies large and small in all industries are struggling to retain employees. Clinical laboratories have been particularly hard hit with no relief in sight.

Now comes the results of a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) survey which shows 50% of US companies in various industries—including major healthcare providers—plan to lay off employees. And 83% of organizations intend to move forward with a “streamlined workforce,” according to the latest PwC Pulse: Managing Business Risks in 2022 report.

How this will affect the workload on remaining hospital and medical laboratory staff is clear. And healthcare consumers may not take well to healthcare provides running leaner and with fewer staff than they currently do.

Nevertheless, the PwC survey results “illustrate the contradictory nature of today’s labor market, where skilled workers can still largely name their terms amid talent shortages even as companies look to let people go elsewhere,” Bloomberg wrote on the  CPA Practice Advisor website.

Bhushan Sethi

“Organizations are still walking a tightrope when it comes to talent as we begin to see the longer-term impacts of the ‘Great Resignation.’ Finding the proper balance between investing in specialized talent, managing headcount costs, and driving productivity and morale will remain a top focus,” said Bhushan Sethi (above), People and Organization Joint Global Leader at PwC and an adjunct professor at NYU Stern School of Business in a PwC news release. Clinical laboratories are finding it particularly challenging to fill staff positions across all areas of lab operations. (Photo copyright: PwC.)

Healthcare Has Biggest Challenges, says PwC

Clinical laboratory leaders and pathologist groups are well aware of the unique financial pressures on healthcare systems and medical labs, as well as shortages of pathologists, medical technologists, clinical laboratory scientists, information technology (IT) professionals, and other healthcare workers.

“Healthcare is seeing bigger talent challenges than other industries and is more focused on rehiring employees who have recently left,” the PwC report acknowledged. This is the second Pulse survey PwC conducted in 2022. The 722 respondents included leaders working in human capital and finance.  

Finding Right Talent, Focusing on Growth, Automation

Finding the right employees is so important to companies that PwC ranks “talent acquisition” as the second highest risk (38%) behind cyber-attacks (40%).

“Finding the right talent continues to be a challenge for business leaders,” PwC said. “After a frenzy of hiring and a tight labor market over the past few years, executives see the distinction between having people and having people with the right skills.”

Unlike the high-touch and personal nature of healthcare, industries such as consumer technology, media, and telecommunications can turn to automation to alleviate staffing struggles. And that is what nearly two-thirds, or 63%, of companies in those sectors, aim to do, PwC said.

Other survey talent findings:

  • 50% of companies plan layoffs.
  • 46% are dropping or eliminating sign-on bonuses.
  • 44% are rescinding job offers.

Conversely, the surveyed executives also told PwC they are “cautiously optimistic” and plan on growing and investing even as the economy gives mixed signals:

  • 83% of companies are focused on growth.
  • 70% plan an acquisition.
  • 53% aim to invest in digital transformation, 52% in IT, 49% in cybersecurity and privacy, and 48% in customer experience.

“After more than two years dealing with uncertainty related to the pandemic, business leaders recognize the urgent need to focus on growth in order to compete, and they’re zeroing in on what they can control,” PwC said.

New Remote Work Programs, Reduction in Real Estate Investing, Big Tech

Although companies report having more than enough physical office space, many (42%) have launched remote work programs:

  • 70% have expanded or plan to increase “permanent” remote work options as jobs permit.
  • 22% are reducing real estate investment (financial services and healthcare industries lead the way with 30% and 29%, respectively, saying real estate buys are cooling off).

“While companies continue to invest in many areas of the business, they’re scaling back the most in real estate and capex ex [capital expenditure]. After two years of remote work, many companies simply need less space, and they’re allocating capital accordingly,” the PwC report noted.

In a somewhat parallel release to PwC’s findings, news sources are reporting reductions in real estate and staff at high-profile Big Tech companies.

Meta Platforms, Inc. in Menlo Park, Calif. (formerly Facebook Inc.), is closing one of its New York offices and cutting back on plans to expand two other locations in the city, the Observer reported.

Business Insider reported, “More than 32,000 tech workers have been laid off in the US till July, including at Big Tech companies like Microsoft and Meta (formerly Facebook), and the worst has not been over yet for the tech sector that has seen massive stock sell-off.”

According to Forbes, “San Francisco-based electronic signature company DocuSign will lay off 9% of its more than 7,400 employees (roughly 670 employees), the company announced in a Securities and Exchange filing Wednesday, saying the cuts are ‘necessary to ensure we are capitalizing on our long-term opportunity and setting up the company for future success.’”

And Bloomberg recently reported that Intel is planning to layoff thousands of people “around the same time as its third-quarter earnings report on Oct. 27.”

Healthcare Providers Plan Layoffs, Seek IT Pros

Meanwhile, major healthcare provider networks also are planning staff cuts amid service closures, rising costs, and other issues, according to Becker’s Hospital Review:

“Our health system, like others around the nation, is facing significant financial pressures from historic inflation, rising pharmaceutical and labor costs, COVID-19, expiration of CARES Act funding, and reimbursement not proportional with expenses,” BHSH said in a statement shared with Becker’s.

Amidst these layoffs, however, IT jobs in healthcare seem to be growing. According to Becker’s Health IT, some healthcare providers have posted information technology openings:

So, though it appears IT positions continue to expand, clinical laboratory leaders and pathology practice managers may want to prepare now for dealing with customers’ response to leaner healthcare systems overall.

Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

PwC Pulse: Managing Business Risks in 2022

Layoffs are Being Planned at Half of US Companies, PwC Survey Shows

Business Executives Remain Bullish about Their Ability to Manage Turbulent Conditions, according to New PwC Survey

Meta Is Closing a Manhattan Office as It Consolidates Its New York City Presence

50% of Companies Planning Job Cuts Amid Economic Downturn: Report

Ascension to Close Hospital, Lay Off 133 Workers

Microsoft Reportedly Cuts Nearly 1,000 Employees—Here Are the Biggest US Layoffs This Year

Intel Is Planning Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of PC Slump

Hospitals Cut Jobs to Resuscitate Finances

IT Job Openings at Mayo, Northwell, CommonSpirit, and Providence

Danish Study Finds Anti-Viral Paxlovid May Be Triggering Drug-to-Drug Interactions, Particularly in Elderly COVID-19 Patients

These findings may be useful to clinical laboratory professionals when physicians want guidance in effective treatments for COVID-19 patients, particularly when there are concerns about a rebound of the infection

Drug interactions are a major concern for physicians and clinical laboratories. That is especially true given the push for nearly universal COVID-19 vaccinations and boosters. Now, a study conducted in Denmark may show that the use of Paxlovid as an antiviral drug to treat early SARS-CoV-2 infection could trigger drug-drug interactions (DDI) in some patients.

For clinical laboratory managers, insights into the issues associated with Paxlovid may be useful in helping client physicians diagnose their patients and anticipate possible negative drug reactions where other anti-viral drugs are involved.

Also of interest to medical laboratory leaders is the fact that the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in May released a Health Alert Network (HAN) Health Advisory about the potential for COVID-19 rebound after Paxlovid treatment.

COVID-19 Rebound, according to the CDC, “has been reported to occur between two and eight days after initial recovery and is characterized by a recurrence of COVID-19 symptoms or a new positive viral test after having tested negative.”

The Danish researchers published their findings in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, titled, “Assessing the Proportion of the Danish Population at Risk of Clinically Significant Drug-Drug Interactions with New Oral Antivirals for Early Treatment of COVID-19.”

Joan Susan Bregstein, MD

In an article she penned for STAT, Joan Susan Bregstein, MD (above), a pediatric emergency medicine physician and professor of pediatrics at Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York, wrote, “Is Paxlovid worth it? The CDC advisory states in black, bold, and no uncertain terms that, despite the risk of rebound COVID, ‘Paxlovid continues to be recommended for early-stage treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 among persons at high risk for progression to severe disease.’ But the definition of ‘high risk’ in this situation has been a moving target since the first days of COVID-19.” Clinical laboratory leaders can attest to the accuracy of that statement. (Photo copyright: Columbia University.)

Do Anti-Viral Drugs Interact with Other Medications?

Paxlovid is the retail name for a combination of two anti-viral drugs: nirmatrelvir and ritonavir. The medication for COVID-19 was developed by American pharmaceutical company Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and received Emergency Use Authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration in August of this year.  

The drug is taken orally for five days by people who test positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus to head off disease progression as well as serious illness, according to the CDC advisory.

But a “sizeable proportion” of elderly people are on medications that could interact with Paxlovid, Reuters reported.

“Two oral antiviral drugs—nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (NMV/r) and molnupiravir—have been approved for early outpatient treatment of COVID-19 to prevent severe disease. Ritonavir, contained in NMV/r is known to have significant DDI with several drugs frequently used by the elderly. This communication puts the problem with DDI with oral antiviral COVID-19 treatment into perspective,” the study authors wrote.

Their analysis of prescription data from Denmark residents found “extensive use of drugs likely to interact with NMV/r” as follows:

  • Anticoagulants (blood thinners): used by 20% of people over age 65 and by 30% of people over 80.
  • Statins (cholesterol-lowering medications): taken by 15% to 18% of people over 65.
  • Analgesics (for pain), calcium channel blockers (used to decrease blood pressure in patients with hypertension), or digoxin (used to treat heart conditions): taken by 20% of those studied.

In their paper, the researchers offered guidance to physicians. “Before prescribing NMV/r, the patient’s full medical history, including herbals and over-the-counter and recreational drugs, must be known and co-treatment carefully managed by the treating physician or by a specialist to avoid detrimental effects.” 

However, one infectious disease specialist told Scientific American it may just take the elderly who were taking Paxlovid more time to completely get over COVID-19.

“Being of an elderly age and then having other risk factors—like diabetes, heart disease, kidney disease, or some sort of cancer—does put you at higher risk of rebound,” Aditya Shah, MBBS, Mayo Clinic Infectious Disease Physician and Researcher, told Scientific American.

Rebounding after Molnupiravir, Too

COVID-19 rebound is not exclusive to people who took Paxlovid, according to a paper published on medRxiv, titled, “Rebound after Paxlovid and Molnupiravir during January-June 2022.”

That study’s researchers retrospectively reviewed 92 million electronic health records (EHR) from US patients. They found most people (11,270) had been treated with Paxlovid. However, 2,374 patients took molnupiravir, which also was granted EUA status by the FDA and is marketed as Lagevrio.

That COVID-19-rebound study found:

  • After nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) treatment: 3.53% had rebound infections, 2.3% with rebound symptoms, and .44% were hospitalized.
  • After molnupiravir (Lagevrio) treatment: 5.86% had rebound infections, 3.75% with rebound symptoms, and .84% were hospitalized.

“Patients who took molnupiravir were significantly older and had more comorbidities than those who took Paxlovid,” the researchers wrote. “Results further suggest that rebound was not unique to Paxlovid and may be associated with persistent viral infection in some patients treated with either of these two antivirals. There has been more attention to COVID-19 rebound following Paxlovid treatment than molnupiravir, which may be attributable to more people being treated with Paxlovid,” they concluded.

Clinical Laboratories Can Guide Doctors

In an article she penned for STAT, titled, “Paxlovid Rebound Happens, Though Why and to Whom Are Still a Mystery,” Joan Susan Bregstein, MD, a pediatric emergency medicine physician and professor of pediatrics at Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York, wrote of COVID-19 rebound, “My emergency medicine physician colleagues are seeing tons of it. Although people tend to think of medical care as something that is certain, it is actually a real-time experiment. Paxlovid, like a lot of COVID-19 care, is a reminder of this.”

Similarly, Mayo Clinic’s Shah acknowledged difficulty in identifying a COVID-19 rebound case. “You need real documentation of three tests—a positive, a negative, a positive—and clear documentation of symptoms—all symptoms gone, symptoms come back,” Shah told Scientific American.

Thus, clinical laboratories play a vital role in diagnosing and treating COVID-19 rebound patients, because that is what clinical labs do: test, document, and report. And as the study of the Danish population pointed out, doctors need guidance as they prescribe oral antivirals to COVID-19 patients who are on other drugs and at possible risk of drug-drug interactions. 

Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

Assessing the Proportion of the Danish Population at Risk of Clinically Significant Drug-Drug Interactions with New Oral Antivirals for Early Treatment of COVID-19

CDC Health Advisory: COVID-19 Rebound after Paxlovid Treatment

Wastewater Study Technique Finds Virus Variants Sooner; Many Patients Are Using Meds Affected by Paxlovid

What Is Paxlovid Rebound and How Common Is It?

COVID-19 Rebound after Paxlovid and Molnupiravir during January-June 2022

Paxlovid Rebound Happens, Though Why and To Whom are Still a Mystery

Artificial Intelligence in Digital Pathology Developments Lean Toward Practical Tools

Patient care gaps can be addressed by machine learning algorithms, Labcorp vice president explains

Is there hype for artificial intelligence (AI)? As it turns out, yes, there is. Keynote speakers acknowledged as much at the 2022 Executive War College Conference on Laboratory and Pathology Management. Nevertheless, leading clinical laboratory companies are taking real steps with the technology that showcase AI developments in digital pathology and patient care.

Labcorp, the commercial laboratory giant headquartered in Burlington, N.C., has billions of diagnostic test results archived. It takes samplings of those results and runs them through a machine learning algorithm that compares the data against a condition of interest, such as chronic kidney disease (CKD). Machine learning is a subdiscipline of AI.

Based on patterns it identifies, the machine learning algorithm can predict future test results for CKD based on patients’ testing histories, explained Stan Letovsky, PhD, Vice President for AI, Data Sciences, and Bioinformatics at Labcorp. Labcorp has found the accuracy of those predictions to be better than 90%, he added.

In “Keynote Speakers at the Executive War College Describe the Divergent Paths of Clinical Laboratory Testing as New Players Offer Point-of-Care Tests and More Consumers Want Access to Home Tests,” Robert Michel, Editor-in-Chief of Dark Daily, reported on how AI in digital pathology was one of several “powerful economic forces [that] are about to be unleashed on the traditional market for clinical laboratory testing.”

Labcorp also has created an AI-powered dashboard that—once layered over an electronic health record (EHR) system—allows physicians to configure views of an individual patient’s existing health data and add a predictive view based on the machine learning results.

For anatomic pathologists, this type of setup can quickly bring a trove of data into their hands, allowing them to be more efficient with patient diagnoses. The long-term implications of using this technology are significant for pathology groups’ bottom line.

Stan Letovsky, PhD
Stan Letovsky, PhD (above), Vice President for AI, Data Sciences, and Bioinformatics at Labcorp, discussed AI developments in digital pathology during his keynote address at the 2022 Executive War College in New Orleans. “The best thing as a community that we can do for patients and their physicians with AI is to identify care gaps early on,” he said, adding, “If pathologists want to grow and improve their revenue, they have to be more productive.” (Photo copyright: Dark Intelligence Group). 

Mayo Clinic Plans to Digitize 25 Million Glass Slides

In other AI developments, Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., has started a project to digitally scan 25 million tissue samples on glass slides—some more than 100 years old. As part of the initiative, Mayo wants to digitize five million of those slides within three years and put them on the cloud, said pathologist and physician scientist Jason Hipp, MD, PhD, Chair of Computational Pathology and AI at Mayo Clinic.

“We want to be a hub within Mayo Clinic for digital pathology,” Hipp told Executive War College attendees during his keynote address.

Hipp views his team as the bridge between pathologists and the data science engineers who develop AI algorithms. Both sides must collaborate to move AI forward, he commented, yet most clinical laboratories and pathology groups have not yet developed those relationships.

“We want to embed both sides,” Hipp added. “We need the data scientists working with the pathologists side by side. That practical part is missing today.”

The future medical laboratory at Mayo Clinic will feature an intersection of pathology, computer technology, and patient data. Cloud storage is a big part of that vision.

“AI requires storage and lots of data to be practical,” Hipp said. 

Scott Wallask

Related Information:

Keynote Speakers at the Executive War College Describe the Divergent Paths of Clinical Laboratory Testing

COVID-19 Testing Reimbursement Scrutiny is Coming for Clinical Laboratories, Attorneys Predict at Executive War College

What is Machine Learning?

Data Scientist Overview

Keynote Speakers at the Executive War College Describe the Divergent Paths of Clinical Laboratory Testing as New Players Offer Point-of-Care Tests and More Consumers Want Access to Home Tests

27th annual meeting of medical laboratory and pathology managers delivers insights on the path ahead for diagnostics, ranging from the supply chain shortage and the ‘Great Resignation’ to advances in artificial intelligence and whole genome sequencing in service of precision medicine

Divergent paths of diagnostic testing are among the central topics being discussed at the 27th annual Executive War College on Laboratory and Pathology Management happening this week in New Orleans.

What’s coming as healthcare providers move to post-COVID-19 pandemic workflows will be of keen interest to clinical laboratory leaders attending this critical event. Several new and dynamic market changes are reshaping the development of, ordering, and reimbursement for medical laboratory tests. They include:

  • Millennials as change agents in how care is accessed and delivered.
  • New buyers of large volumes of clinical lab tests, such as retail pharmacies.
  • How clinical laboratories can earn new sources of revenue while supporting precision medicine.

Clinical Labs Should Prepare for the ‘Coming Roller Coaster Ride’

Robert L. Michel, Editor-in-Chief of Dark Daily’s sister publication, The Dark Report, and Founder of the Executive War College, described the “coming roller coaster ride” for the pathology and clinical laboratory industries.

Amid the usual operational issues labs deal with (e.g., workforce shortages, supply chain disruptions, regulatory pressures), he noted the emergence of new and powerful forces pulling clinical laboratories and pathology groups in all directions.

“One primary factor is how Millennials will use healthcare differently than Gen Xers and Baby Boomers,” Michel noted. “Similarly, Millennials will make up 75% of the pathologists and the lab workforce by 2025.

“Another major force for change will be new buyers of clinical laboratory tests,” he continued. “For example, expect to see national retail pharmacy chains build thousands of primary care clinics in their retail pharmacies. These clinics will need lab tests and will become major buyers of near-patient analyzers and lab tests.

“A third interesting factor is that a new class of in vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturers are developing analyzers and test systems that use minimal amounts of specimens and return answers in minutes. Primary care clinics in retail pharmacies will be interested in buying these lab testing solutions,” Michel concluded.

Robert L. Michel
Robert L. Michel (above), Editor-in-Chief of The Dark Report and Founder of the Executive War College, has studied and worked with leaders of clinical laboratories and pathology groups for more than four decades. During his keynote address, he predicted that powerful economic forces are about to be unleashed on the traditional market for clinical laboratory testing. Those forces include the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in digital pathology, primary care in retail pharmacies, and increased focus on precision medicine. (Photo copyright: The Dark Intelligence Group.)

Peer-to-Peer Learning Opportunities

With approximately 90 presenters scheduled, clinical laboratory leaders from such prestigious institutions as Johns Hopkins Hospital, Mayo Clinic, United Indian Health Services, and more will facilitate peer-to-peer learnings throughout the conference.

In addition, industry executives scheduled to deliver keynotes include Jon Harol, Lighthouse Lab Services Founder and President; Stan Letovsky, PhD, Vice President for AI, Data Sciences and Bioinformatics as well as other executives from Labcorp; and Curtiss McNair II, Vice President and General Manager of Laboratory Services at American Oncology Network.

In addition, several sessions and panel Q/A discussions will cover critical legal and regulatory issues and payer challenges facing the industry.

New Technologies, Workflows, Analytics

The 2022 Executive War College master classes, breakouts, panel discussions, and benefactor sessions will highlight several significant themes:

  • Lab data analytics and utilization. Sessions this year are heavily weighted toward data analytics, aggregation, and utilization. Look for case studies demonstrating the value of lab data, and where and how data has become actionable and monetized. As Dark Daily previously reported, useful data structures have been difficult to achieve for clinical laboratories; however, the case studies featured during this week’s conference will demonstrate signs of progress and highlight lessons learned.
  • Automation. Several case studies are planned that focus on expansion and modernization using laboratory automation. From Butler Health System, an independent hospital system in western Pa., Robert Patterson, MD, Medical Director of Pathology, Laboratory Medicine, and Laboratory Outreach, will detail steps Butler took that enabled its labs to better compete with other area health systems and national reference laboratories. Likewise, Eric Parnell, System Supervisor of Microbiology for Bronson Healthcare in southern Mich., will discuss his lab’s transition to and implementation of total laboratory automation.
  • Genetic testing and next-generation sequencing (NGS). Quickly becoming the foundational disruptor technology on which many new and powerful clinical laboratory tests and procedures are based, genomic testing has now become accessible and affordable. Many clinical laboratories and pathology groups are using molecular diagnostics testing to deliver clinical value to referring physicians.

Other sessions include:

  • Launching and scaling clinical NGS testing in a clinical environment (featuring a project at Rady Children’s Hospital in San Diego).
  • How labs and payers can work together to achieve better outcomes and health equity using genomic testing.
  • Effective ways to repurpose PCR and other genetic test instruments to build specimen volume and increase lab revenue.

Paths Forward for Clinical Labs and Pathology Groups

Another important topic being discussed at the 2022 Executive War College is how to position clinical laboratories and pathology groups for the next phase of modern healthcare.

Legal experts and consultants from McDonald Hopkins LLC, Advanced Strategic Partners, Pathology Practice Advisors, and ECG Management Consultants, among others, will answer questions on:

  • Attracting capital for clinical labs and pathology groups.
  • Emerging concepts in growth strategies.
  • Business valuation factors.
  • Unexpected disruptions during sales closings.

These are just a few highlights of the informative sessions and expert speakers scheduled during this week’s 27th annual Executive War College in New Orleans. Look for more coverage in Dark Daily during the days ahead and in upcoming editions of our sister publication The Dark Report.

Full details about the 2022 Executive War College can be found by clicking on this link. (Or copy/paste this URL into your web browser: http://www.executivewarcollege.com.)

Speakers, session topics, and the conference agenda can be viewed by clicking on this link. (Or copy/paste this URL into your web browser: https://executivewarcollege.darkintelligencegroup.com/executive-war-college-agenda-2022.)

—Liz Carey

Related Information:

Executive War College on Lab and Pathology Management

Executive War College: Efficient Data Structure Can Bring in More Reimbursement Dollars and Allow Clinical Laboratories to Sell Aggregated Information

Scientists Estimate 73% of US Population May Be Immune to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant

Clinical laboratory scientists should also know experts warn that ‘herd resistance’ is more likely than ‘herd immunity’ due to low vaccination rates in many parts of the world

Scientists estimate 73% of the US population may be immune to the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant. Whether the nation is approaching “herd immunity” against the disease, however, remains open to debate, the Associated Press (AP) reported. These estimates are relevant to medical laboratories doing serology tests for COVID-19, as different individuals will have different immune system responses to COVID-19 infections and vaccines.

More than two years into the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker shows the number of daily cases dropped to fewer than 50,000 as of March 4, 2022, after reaching a high of 928,125 on January 3, 2022.

Meanwhile, the seven-day death rate per 100,000 people stands at 2.78. That’s significantly above the seven-day death rate reached last July of .45, but well below the 7.21 mark recorded on January 13, 2021.

“We’re clearly entering a new phase of the pandemic,” William Morice, II, MD, PhD, Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology at Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn., told KARE11, an NBC affiliate.

Is Herd Immunity Achievable?

According to the AP, an estimated 73% of the US population is likely to be immune to the Omicron variant due to vaccination or natural immunity from contracting the disease. That calculation was done for the media outlet by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle. The IHME anticipates immunity to Omicron could rise to 80% this month, as more people receive vaccination booster shots or become vaccinated.

Despite those optimistic totals, however, Don Milton, MD, DrPH, Professor of Environmental Health at the University of Maryland School of Public Health, suggests achieving herd immunity to COVID-19 and its variants may no longer be possible.

“Herd immunity is an elusive concept and doesn’t apply to coronavirus,” he told the Associated Press (AP).

Milton maintains populations are moving toward “herd resistance,” rather than “herd immunity.” This will transform COVID-19 into a permanent fixture with seasonal outbreaks similar to influenza.

Ali Mokdad, PhD
Epidemiologist, Ali Mokdad, PhD (above), Chief Strategy Officer for Population Health and Professor of Health Metrics Science at the University of Washington in Seattle, believes the US is now much better positioned to withstand the next wave of COVID-19 cases. “I am optimistic even if we have a surge in summer, cases will go up, but hospitalizations and deaths will not,” he told the Associated Press (AP). Mokdad worked on the IHME model that calculated the 73% Omicron-immunity figure for the AP. However, he recommends continued vigilance toward COVID-19. “We’ve reached a much better position for the coming months, but with waning immunity we shouldn’t take it for granted,” he added. And so, clinical laboratories can expect to continue to play a vital role in the fight against the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. (Photo copyright: University of Washington.)

Herd Immunity Varies, according to the WHO

Because antibodies that developed from vaccines—or natural immunity from a previous infection—diminish over time, waning protection means even those boosted or recently recovered from COVID-19 could be reinfected. In addition, vaccination rates vary widely around the world. Our World in Data estimates only 13.6% of people in low-income countries had received one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine as of March 7, 2022.

The World Health Organization (WHO) points out that herd immunity levels vary with different diseases. Herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated, while the threshold for polio is about 80%.

“The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not known. This is an important area of research and will likely vary according to the community, the vaccine, the populations prioritized for vaccination, and other factors,” the WHO website states.

Living with COVID-19

Nonetheless, the US appears to be moving into a new “normal” phase of living with the disease.

In an interview with Reuters, US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci, MD, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) acknowledged a need for returning to normal living even though portions of the population—immunocompromised individuals and the unvaccinated, including children under age five who are not eligible for vaccination—remain vulnerable to more severe COVID-19.

“The fact that the world and the United States—and particularly certain parts of the United States—are just up to here with COVID, they just really need to somehow get their life back,” Fauci said. “You don’t want to be reckless and throw everything aside, but you’ve got to start inching towards that. There’s no perfect solution to this.”

Most states have lifted coronavirus-related restrictions, including masking requirements. As COVID-19 cases drop in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom put in motion a plan called SMARTER (Shots, Masks, Awareness, Readiness, Testing, Education, and Rx) that no longer responds to COVID-19 as a crisis, but instead emphasizes prevention, surveillance, and rapid response to future variant-based surges in cases.

“We have all come to understand what was not understood at the beginning of this crisis, that there’s no ending, that there’s not a moment where we declare victory,” Newsom told USA Today.

Mayo Clinic’s Morice agrees. “It can’t be out of sight, out of mind, per se, but it at least gives us hope that we can get back to some level of normalcy here over the course of the year,” he said.

Since clinical laboratories played a critical role in assay development and COVID-19 testing, medical laboratory leaders should continue monitoring COVID-19 as it moves from pandemic to endemic status due to high vaccination rates and advances in treatment options.

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised awareness among healthcare consumers as well, about the critical role laboratory medicine plays in modern medicine and healthcare. Medical laboratory leaders and pathologists would be wise to amplify this message and stress the importance of clinical laboratory testing for many diseases and healthcare conditions.

Andrea Downing Peck

Related Information:

Estimated 73% of US Now Immune to Omicron: Is That Enough?

Model Estimates 73% of Americans Immune to Omicron Variant

California is First to Unveil Plan to Live with Virus; ‘Stealth Omicron’ Could Be More Dangerous than Initial Version: COVID-19 Updates

Fauci Says Time to Start ‘Inching’ Back Toward Normality

CDC Data Tracker

Is Omicron Leading US Closer to Herd Immunity against COVID?

;