US Mortality Rates among Young Adults Have Soared Pre- and Post-Pandemic, Study Finds
Researchers tracked “excess deaths” among adults aged 25 to 44 years and found disparate causes to blame
Studies conducted at the University of Minnesota and Boston University found that mortality rates among young adults have risen substantially since 2010 due to a variety of factors, pointing to a possible “mortality crisis” as they get older.
The researchers used data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and US Census Bureau to analyze nearly 3.4 million deaths in the US between 1999 and 2023 among adults aged 25 to 44 years, according to a Boston University press release.
They then used mortality data from 1999 through 2010 to project expected death rates for the later years and compared those projections to the actual post-2010 mortality rate to calculate the number of “excess deaths,” defined as “those [deaths] above what had been projected for a given period.”
“What we didn’t expect is how many different causes of death have really grown for these early adults,” said study lead author Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, PhD, of the University of Minnesota, in a U of M press release. “It’s drug and alcohol deaths, but it’s also car collisions, it’s circulatory and metabolic diseases—causes that are very different from each other. That tells us this isn’t one simple problem to fix, but something broader.”
From that perspective, clinical laboratories could be part of the solution in tracking down these early conditions and steering young patients towards healthier outcomes.
Wrigley-Field was lead author of a research letter titled, “Mortality Trends among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023,” which appeared Jan. 31, 2025, in the journal JAMA Network Open.
“The rise in opiate deaths has been devastating for Americans in early and middle adulthood,” said sociologist Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, PhD, of the University of Minnesota in a press release. (Photo copyright: University of Minnesota.)
One-Two Punch
In 2019, excess mortality amounted to 41.7 deaths per 100,000 population, nearly 35% higher than expected, the researchers wrote. Then, in 2021 during the pandemic, excess mortality from all causes was nearly three times higher: 116.2 deaths per 100,000 population. In 2023, excess mortality decreased, but only to 79.1 deaths per 100,000 population.
“As a result, early adult mortality was 70.0% higher in 2023 than it would have been had pre-2011 trends continued,” the researchers wrote in Jama Network Open.
Speaking with Healio, Wrigley-Field described a “one-two punch that these age groups have seen: first, rising mortality since 2010; then the pandemic, only partially recovered from.”
Five causes accounted for nearly 75% of the excess deaths in 2023, the researchers found:
- Drug poisoning, such as opiate overdoses (31.8%)
- Residual natural causes (16%)
- Transport-related deaths, such as motor vehicle accidents (14.1%)
- Alcohol-related deaths (8.5%)
- Homicide (8.2%)
The researchers also found that cardiometabolic conditions accounted for 9.2% of excess deaths. These include metabolic, circulatory and endocrine, and nutritional conditions, they noted.
Study co-author Andrew Stokes, PhD, of Boston University characterized the latter as a red flag, according to the Boston University press release. “Usually, it takes a lifetime to manifest cardiovascular disease and related mortality,” he said.
“Our findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive policies to address the structural factors driving worsening health among recent generations of young adults,” he said in the U of M press release. “Solutions may include expanding access to nutritious foods, strengthening social services, and increasing regulation of industries that affect public health.”
Policy Measures
In their paper, the researchers suggested that policymakers should pay more attention to underlying causes such as opioid use, alcohol consumption, and traffic safety, as well as “ongoing consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic—which may be expressed in causes of death related to long-term consequences of infection, medical disruption, and social dislocation—and to deleterious health trends that predated it.”
“Individuals might not necessarily be able to reverse those factors, or their consequences, on their own, but public health collectively has been very successful at improving health through policies like tobacco regulation, to name one example,” Wrigley-Field told Healio.
She added that “the cardiometabolic causes of death stand out because these are really a bellwether of population health. These causes tend to be very responsive to the fundamentals of healthy living: healthy food, exercise, sleep, limited exposure to tobacco and air pollution, and limited experience of excessive stress.”
Young adults have also been dealing with the “expansion of industries that affect public health—processed foods and beverages, prescription drugs and OxyContin, alcohol, combined with this creeping effect of the obesity epidemic,” Stokes said.
He added: “These are the ages, 25 to 44, in which behaviors become entrenched and life course risks start to develop. And if we’re seeing this excess mortality in this generation now, it’s also an indication of what may happen to population health as a whole in decades ahead as this generation ages.”
This information can inform physicians and laboratorians about what diagnostic tests to consider for young people showing symptoms, even if their ages traditionally don’t indicate a chronic condition.
—Stephen Beale
