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HHS Office of Inspector General Report Finds ‘Steep Decreases’ in Medicare Beneficiaries Receiving Clinical Laboratory Testing During COVID-19 Pandemic’s Early Months

OIG warns that without adequate clinical laboratory testing healthcare organizations could see more deaths and increased spending

Clinical laboratory leaders and pathologists know that lab test volume decreased dramatically during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. That was primarily because community lockdowns stopped people from seeing their doctors for the standard range of chronic health conditions, many of which require clinical laboratory tests for diagnosis and chronic disease management.

This early and substantial drop in the volume of medical laboratory testing done in the early months of the pandemic has been confirmed and quantified in a recently published report by US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG). The report describes the  “steep decreases” in the number of Medicare beneficiaries receiving Medicare Part B lab tests in early 2020, by month, as follows:

• 24% reduction in Medicare Part B test volumes in March
• 53% in April
• 30% in May

The decline of Medicare patients visiting clinical laboratories continued through the balance of 2020. During the first 10 months of the pandemic—March through December 2020—Medicare beneficiaries who pursued lab testing decreased by about 9% compared to the same 10-month period in 2019, according to a news release.

This is a strong indicator that the government’s response to the pandemic had a measurable effect on clinical laboratory testing volume among all age groups, especially among the elderly.

Kyle Fetter

“The cumulative decline in lab test volume across all client labs for [March 9 to April 12] was just over 40%. But in that time, some of our lab customers were hit with a decline of maybe 50% to 60% in test volume,” Kyle Fetter (above), COO, XIFIN, told The Dark Report in 2020. Clinical laboratory testing that originates from a routine patient visit to a doctor—such as blood testing—may have been affected the most, Fetter explained. (Photo copyright: XIFIN.)

Clinical Laboratory Tests Key to Well-being of Patients with Chronic Conditions 

The OIG study was limited to Medicare beneficiaries and thus did not provide information about testing fall-off among people who have private health insurance. But in “From Mid-March, Labs Saw Big Drop in Revenue,” Dark Daily’s sister publication The Dark Report reported early in 2020 on a 40% decline in test volumes and the pandemic’s varying effects on clinical labs, anatomic pathology (AP) groups, and AP subspecialties.

The OIG’s Report in Brief on its study recognized that medical laboratory testing is critical to helping healthcare providers manage chronic conditions that affect patients’ well-being and increase their healthcare costs.

“Lab tests are important for beneficiaries with chronic medical conditions, which are associated with hospitalizations, billions of dollars in Medicare costs, and deaths,” the OIG said.

The OIG audit collected data on the numbers of Medicare beneficiaries receiving all lab tests as well as specific lab tests for Type 2 diabetes mellitus, Chronic kidney disease, and Chronic ischemic heart disease during the period March through December 2020, as compared to the same months in 2019.

According to the OIG’s report:

  • Beneficiaries receiving clinical laboratory tests in general decreased 9%.
  • Beneficiaries with type 2 diabetes receiving lab tests declined 14%.
  • Beneficiaries with chronic kidney disease getting lab tests fell 11%.
  • Beneficiaries with chronic ischemic heart disease receiving lab tests decreased 19%.

“The information may be useful to stakeholders involved in ensuring that beneficiaries avoid the potential bad outcomes that may result from missing or delaying appropriate care,” the report noted.

Overall, 23.7 million Medicare beneficiaries received medical laboratory tests during the first 10 months of the pandemic, down 2.4 million from 26.1 million in 2019, the OIG reported.

Overall Medicare lab test volume and spending also declined during the reported period:

  • Part B clinical laboratory tests for Medicare beneficiaries decreased 15% from 419.9 million tests in 2019 to 358.4 million tests in the first 10 months of the pandemic.
  • Medicare spending for these tests decreased 16% from $6.6 billion in 2019 to $5.5 billion during the first 10 months of the pandemic.

“OIG’s audit of Part B clinical laboratory tests, reimbursed under the Clinical Laboratory Fee Schedule (CLFS) is a useful benchmark for how Medicare beneficiaries received fewer lab tests during the pandemic, especially during the early months,” said Robert Michel, Editor-in-Chief of Dark Daily and The Dark Report.

Medical Laboratory Tests That Were Down Most During COVID-19

The following 10 clinical laboratory tests experienced a 10% or more decline in Medicare beneficiaries seeking them during the pandemic period as compared to pre-pandemic, according to the OIG report:

  • Basic metabolic panel down 18% to 4.8 million Medicare patients.
  • Urinalysis with microscope analysis down 13% to 4.6 million Medicare recipients.
  • Automated urinalysis down 16% to 3.4 million Medicare beneficiaries.
  • Vitamin B12 decreased 11% to 3.4 million Medicare patients.
  • Complete blood count (CBC) down 13% to 3.2 million Medicare beneficiaries.
  • Comprehensive urine culture test fell 16% to three million Medicare patients.
  • Uric acid level blood down 13% to 1.9 million Medicare beneficiaries.
  • Evaluation of antimicrobial drug decreased 17% to 1.74 million Medicare patients.
  • Folic acid level down 12% to 1.73 million Medicare beneficiaries.
  • Urinalysis manual test plunged 28% to 1.4 million Medicare patients.

Beyond Medicare, Clinical Laboratory Test Volume Dropped 40%

OIG was not the only organization to analyze medical laboratory testing volume during the pandemic’s early phase.

The Dark Report correlated data tracked by XIFIN, a San Diego-based health information technology (HIT) company providing revenue cycle management services to clinical laboratories and pathology groups. XIFIN’s collected data showed a steep drop in routine test volume as COVID-19 testing ramped up.

“Starting in the third week of March, we saw medical laboratories suffer a sharp drop in routine testing. But at about the same time, many labs began to offset those revenue losses with testing for the novel coronavirus,” Kyle Fetter, XIFIN’s then Executive Vice President and General Manager of Diagnostic Services told The Dark Report in 2020. Fetter is now XIFIN’S Chief Operating Officer.

“Over four weeks beginning March 9, we saw a cumulative drop of over 40% in test volume from all of our lab clients,” he added.

According to XIFIN’s data, lab specialty organizations experienced the following drop in routine testing during the period March 9 to April 16, 2020:

  • 58% at clinical laboratories.
  • 61% at hospital outreach laboratories.
  • 52% at molecular and genetic testing laboratories.
  • 44% at anatomic pathology (AP) groups.
  • 70% to 80% at AP dermatology and other AP subspecialties.

Many medical laboratories are still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on testing volume.

Notably, the OIG’s report acknowledges the importance of adequate clinical laboratory testing and declares that—without these essential lab tests to manage some healthcare conditions—the healthcare industry could see increased morbidity, deaths, and Medicare spending.   

Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

Full Report: The Number of Beneficiaries Who Received Medicare Part B Clinical Laboratory Tests Decreased During the First 10 Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Press Release: The Number of Beneficiaries Who Received Medicare Part B Clinical Laboratory Tests Decreased During the First 10 Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic 

Report-in-Brief: The Number of Beneficiaries Who Received Medicare Part B Clinical Laboratory Tests Decreased During the First 10 Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic

From Mid-March Labs Saw Big Drop in Revenue

Geneticist Svante Pääbo, PhD, Wins Nobel Prize for His Research on Neanderthal DNA

Technologies developed by Pääbo to sequence Neanderthal DNA are being widely used in many clinical laboratory settings, including to study infectious disease outbreaks

In October, the Nobel Prize for Medicine was awarded to Swedish geneticist Svante Pääbo, PhD, director of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, for his innovative work with ancient DNA. And his revolutionary techniques have found their way into many clinical laboratory processes.

Pääbo is considered to be the founder of paleogenetics. This field of science studies the past through examination of preserved genetic material found in remains of ancient organisms. It was his development of pioneering technologies that allowed for the genomic sequencing of Neanderthal DNA.

“[Pääbo’s] work has revolutionized our understanding of the evolutionary history of modern humans,” said German electrochemist Martin Stratmann, PhD, President of the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science (MPG), in a press release. “Svante Pääbo, for example, demonstrated that Neanderthals and other extinct hominids made a significant contribution to the ancestry of modern humans.”

Svante Pääbo, PhD

“The thing that’s amazing to me is that you now have some ability to go back in time and actually follow genetic history and genetic changes over time,” Svante Pääbo, PhD (above), director of the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, stated in a news conference, Reuters reported. “It’s a possibility to begin to actually look on evolution in real time, if you like.” Development of modern clinical laboratory techniques for identifying and tracking disease outbreaks have already evolved due to these findings. (Photo copyright: Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology.)

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Comparing Neanderthal DNA to That of Modern Humans

Back in the mid-1990s, Pääbo and a team of researchers decoded relatively short fragments of mitochondrial DNA of a Neanderthal male. They discovered through their analysis that the DNA from the Neanderthal varied considerably from the genome of contemporary humans. This validated the belief that modern humans are not direct descendants of the Neanderthals. 

Pääbo’s research team found nearly all (99.9%) of the Neanderthal DNA they studied to be heavily colonized by bacteria and fungi. That required them to create solutions for assembling the short components of mitochondrial DNA like a huge puzzle.

To accomplish this, the team had to:

  • Work under clean room conditions to prevent the accidental introduction of their own DNA into their experiments.
  • Establish more efficient extraction methods to enhance the output of Neanderthal DNA.
  • Generate complex computer programs that could compare the ancient DNA fragments with reference genomes of both humans and chimpanzees.

“Neanderthals are the closest relatives of humans today” said Pääbo in the press release. “Comparisons of their genomes with those of modern humans and with those of apes enable us to determine when genetic changes occurred in our ancestors. In the future, it could also be clarified why modern humans eventually developed a complex culture and technology that enabled them to colonize almost the entire world.”

Pääbo’s team succeeded in reconstructing their first version of the Neanderthal genome in 2010. Their comparisons between the genomes of Neanderthal and modern humans proved that the two groups had produced common offspring about 50,000 years ago and that this genetic contribution did influence human evolution.

In “Discovery That Modern Humans Aren’t Especially Unique, Genetically Speaking, May Lead to Improved Precision Medicine Diagnostics and Therapeutics,” Dark Daily reported that researchers had found that having Neanderthal DNA may affect the health of modern people who carry it. Perception of pain, immune system function, and even hair color and sleeping patterns have been associated with having Neanderthal DNA.

The genome of modern non-African people still contains about 2% Neanderthal DNA.

“We have found around 30,000 positions in which the genomes of almost all modern humans differ from those of Neanderthals and great apes,” Pääbo added. “They answer what makes anatomically modern humans ‘modern’ in the genetic sense as well. Some of these genetic changes may be the key to understanding what distinguishes the cognitive abilities of today’s humans from those of now extinct hominids.”

Those with Neanderthal DNA More Susceptible to Severe COVID-19 Infection

Pääbo’s research also found that Neanderthal DNA may have affected the immune systems of modern people. During the COVID-19 pandemic, his work verified that individuals who carry a gene variant inherited from Neanderthals are more prone to severe forms of the illness than those who do not have that gene variant.

Dark Daily reported Pääbo’s findings in “European Study Links Genes Inherited from Neanderthals to Higher Risk for Severe COVID-19 Infections in Today’s Humans.”

“We can make an average gauge of the number of the extra deaths we have had in the pandemic due to the contribution from the Neanderthals,” Pääbo said in a 2022 lecture, Reuters reported. “It is quite substantial, it’s more than one million extra individuals who have died due to this Neanderthal variant that they carry.”

Pääbo’s research team continues to develop new methods for reconstructing DNA fragments that are even more biodegraded, and which present in smaller amounts. Their ultimate goal is to investigate even older DNA and genetic material that is scarce due to climate conditions.

The DNA technologies pioneered by Pääbo to sequence Neanderthal DNA are being used widely in many clinical laboratory and research settings today. They include forensic science and the ability to collect DNA from human remains hundreds of years old to identify infectious disease outbreaks and study how today’s human genome has adopted new mutations.

JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Svante Pääbo Awarded Nobel for Examining the Ancient Human Genome

Nobel Prize Awarded to Svante Pääbo for Study of Ancient Human DNA

Nobel Prize 2022 for Svante Pääbo

Swedish Geneticist Wins Nobel Medicine Prize for Decoding Ancient DNA

European Study Links Genes Inherited from Neanderthals to Higher Risk for Severe COVID-19 Infections in Today’s Humans

Neanderthal Genome Sequenced Using DNA from 38,000-Year-Old Bones

Discovery That Modern Humans Aren’t Especially Unique, Genetically Speaking, May Lead to Improved Precision Medicine Diagnostics and Therapeutics

Oregon Health and Science University Announces Program to Provide Patients with Hospital-Level Care in the Comfort of Their Home

As the number of Hospital at Home programs increase, clinical laboratories will want to develop programs for collecting samples from patients where they live

Shortages of nurses and hospital staff, combined with pressure to lower the cost of care, are encouraging more institutions to implement hospital-in-the-home programs. One such project involves Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU), which last November began a Hospital at Home (HaH) program that enables certain patients to receive hospital-level care in the comfort of their own homes. Clinical laboratories servicing these programs will need to develop specimen collection and testing services in support of these patients.

The OHSU program can provide healthcare for eight patients simultaneously, and it has treated more than 100 patients at home since its inception. Although this number is only a small segment of OHSU’s 576 bed capacity, it does affect the overall healthcare provided by the hospital.

Under the program, basic services, such as the monitoring of vital signs—as well as some clinical laboratory work and routine imaging studies—are performed in the patient’s home. Individuals are transported to OHSU for more complex imaging or other procedures.

Matthias Merkel, MD, PhD

“Every patient we have in Hospital at Home is one who is not waiting in the emergency room or a hallway for a bed to become available in the hospital,” said Matthias Merkel, MD, PhD (above), Senior Associate Chief Medical Officer, Capacity Management and Patient Flow at OHSU, in a press release. In the same way clinical laboratories support telehealth programs, medical laboratories will need procedures for collecting specimens and testing patients participating in Hospital at Home programs as well. (Photo copyright: Oregon Health and Science University.)

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Better Patient Experience, Increases Hospital Capacity

OHSU’s HaH program utilizes advances in technology to connect at-home patients with physicians and nurses around the clock via a smart tablet. In addition, participating patients receive real-time monitoring and at least two daily in-person visits from nurses and paramedics that have been contracted by OHSU.

“It’s a better experience for patients, plus it increases our system’s capacity to provide care for all the people who need it,” said Darren Malinoski, MD, Chief Clinical Transformation Officer and Professor of Surgery at OHSU in the press release. “It allows us to make good on our promise to take care of the state as best we can.”

The current eligibility criteria to participate in OHSU’s Hospital at Home program include:

  • Patient must be over the age of 18.
  • Patient’s primary residence must be within a 25-mile radius of the OHSU hospital.
  • Inpatient hospitalization is initially required.
  • Patient must have a diagnosis that can be managed remotely, such as COVID-19, pneumonia, cellulitis, congestive heart failure, urinary tract infections, or pyelonephritis.

Malinoski feels that OHSU’s HaH program is ready to expand. In fact, he is so confident in it he enrolled his own 83-year-old mother as one of its first patients. While undergoing treatment for lung cancer, a routine clinical checkup exposed evidence of toxicity in her blood. Typically, she would have been directly admitted to the hospital for monitoring, but instead she was entered into the HaH program.

“It was unbelievable,” stated Lesley Malinoski in the press release. “I had the feeling of being well taken care of. I was in my own home. I could cook, I could rest—anything I wanted and still have all this care.”

“They didn’t just come in and run out,” she continued. “I felt like a celebrity.”

COVID-19 Pandemic Drove Remote Healthcare Programs

HaH programs around the country were made possible through a federal waiver granted by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) in November 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to the American Hospital Association (AHA), “this care delivery model has been shown to reduce costs, improve outcomes, and enhance the patient experience.”

Prior to the waiver, there were only about two dozen hospitals across the US that had HaH programs. However, as of May 20, 2022, 227 hospitals in 35 states had received a HaH waiver from CMS. This number represents nearly 4% of all hospitals in the country, according to Health Affairs.

Dark Daily has published many stories about Hospital at Home programs in the past. In “Hospital-in-the-Home Shows Promise for Reducing Acute Care Costs; Medical Laboratories Face Uncertainties Concerning Expanding Services to In-Home Environments in Support of Care Providers,” we described an example of an HaH model of clinical care implemented at Brigham and Women’s Faulkner Hospital in Boston where, despite initial reservations from staff, their testing of hospital-at-home care was well received.

In “Two US Studies Show Home-based Hospital Care Lowers Costs while Improving Outcomes and Patient Satisfaction,” we reported on a hospital-based home care program that involved 323 patients at Presbyterian Healthcare Services in Albuquerque, N.M. We surmised that significant growth in the number of patients treated in home-based hospital care programs would directly affect hospital-based clinical laboratories and pathology groups. Among other things, it would reduce the volume of inpatient testing while increasing the number of outpatient/outreach specimens.

And in “Australia’s ‘Hospital in the Home’ Care Model Demonstrates Major Cost Savings and Comparable Patient Outcomes,” Dark Daily saw that wider adoption of that country’s Hospital in the Home (HITH) model of patient care would directly affect pathologists and clinical laboratory managers who worked in Australia’s hospital laboratories. We reported that more HITH patients would increase the need to collect specimens in patient’s homes and transport them to a local clinical laboratory for testing, and that because they are central to the communities they serve, hospital-based medical laboratories would be well-positioned to provide this diagnostic testing.

OHSU’s overall experience with their Hospital at Home program demonstrates that such a model can be a highly successful and cost-effective method of providing patient care. It is probable that in the future, more medical institutions will create similar programs in an effort to effectively serve as many patients as possible while ensuring shorter hospital stays and rendering better healthcare outcomes. As this happens, it will give hospital-based medical laboratories an opportunity to deliver value in home-based patient care. 

JP Schlingman

Related Information:

Hospital at Home: Amid hospital Capacity Crisis, OHSU Offers an Alternative

Given Regulatory Uncertainty, Hospital-at-Home Models Are Losing Momentum

The Benefits of Treating Patients at Home Instead of in the Hospital

AHA: Extending the Acute Hospital Care at Home Program Beyond the End of the COVID-19 PHE

Hospital at Home Is Not Just for Hospitals

What We Learned from the Acute Hospital Care at Home Waiver—and What We Still Don’t Know

Hospital-in-the-Home Shows Promise for Reducing Acute Care Costs; Medical Laboratories Face Uncertainties Concerning Expanding Services to In-Home Environments in Support of Care Providers

Two US Studies Show Home-based Hospital Care Lowers Costs while Improving Outcomes and Patient Satisfaction

Australia’s ‘Hospital in the Home’ Care Model Demonstrates Major Cost Savings and Comparable Patient Outcomes

PwC Survey Finds 50% of Companies Plan Layoffs and 83% Intend to Move Forward with Streamlined Workforces

Amid cost pressures, healthcare providers also plan to cut staff though some jobs are plentiful; adequate staffing at medical laboratories continues to be a challenge

Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent “Great Resignation,” masses of people have left the workforce and companies large and small in all industries are struggling to retain employees. Clinical laboratories have been particularly hard hit with no relief in sight.

Now comes the results of a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) survey which shows 50% of US companies in various industries—including major healthcare providers—plan to lay off employees. And 83% of organizations intend to move forward with a “streamlined workforce,” according to the latest PwC Pulse: Managing Business Risks in 2022 report.

How this will affect the workload on remaining hospital and medical laboratory staff is clear. And healthcare consumers may not take well to healthcare provides running leaner and with fewer staff than they currently do.

Nevertheless, the PwC survey results “illustrate the contradictory nature of today’s labor market, where skilled workers can still largely name their terms amid talent shortages even as companies look to let people go elsewhere,” Bloomberg wrote on the  CPA Practice Advisor website.

Bhushan Sethi

“Organizations are still walking a tightrope when it comes to talent as we begin to see the longer-term impacts of the ‘Great Resignation.’ Finding the proper balance between investing in specialized talent, managing headcount costs, and driving productivity and morale will remain a top focus,” said Bhushan Sethi (above), People and Organization Joint Global Leader at PwC and an adjunct professor at NYU Stern School of Business in a PwC news release. Clinical laboratories are finding it particularly challenging to fill staff positions across all areas of lab operations. (Photo copyright: PwC.)

Healthcare Has Biggest Challenges, says PwC

Clinical laboratory leaders and pathologist groups are well aware of the unique financial pressures on healthcare systems and medical labs, as well as shortages of pathologists, medical technologists, clinical laboratory scientists, information technology (IT) professionals, and other healthcare workers.

“Healthcare is seeing bigger talent challenges than other industries and is more focused on rehiring employees who have recently left,” the PwC report acknowledged. This is the second Pulse survey PwC conducted in 2022. The 722 respondents included leaders working in human capital and finance.  

Finding Right Talent, Focusing on Growth, Automation

Finding the right employees is so important to companies that PwC ranks “talent acquisition” as the second highest risk (38%) behind cyber-attacks (40%).

“Finding the right talent continues to be a challenge for business leaders,” PwC said. “After a frenzy of hiring and a tight labor market over the past few years, executives see the distinction between having people and having people with the right skills.”

Unlike the high-touch and personal nature of healthcare, industries such as consumer technology, media, and telecommunications can turn to automation to alleviate staffing struggles. And that is what nearly two-thirds, or 63%, of companies in those sectors, aim to do, PwC said.

Other survey talent findings:

  • 50% of companies plan layoffs.
  • 46% are dropping or eliminating sign-on bonuses.
  • 44% are rescinding job offers.

Conversely, the surveyed executives also told PwC they are “cautiously optimistic” and plan on growing and investing even as the economy gives mixed signals:

  • 83% of companies are focused on growth.
  • 70% plan an acquisition.
  • 53% aim to invest in digital transformation, 52% in IT, 49% in cybersecurity and privacy, and 48% in customer experience.

“After more than two years dealing with uncertainty related to the pandemic, business leaders recognize the urgent need to focus on growth in order to compete, and they’re zeroing in on what they can control,” PwC said.

New Remote Work Programs, Reduction in Real Estate Investing, Big Tech

Although companies report having more than enough physical office space, many (42%) have launched remote work programs:

  • 70% have expanded or plan to increase “permanent” remote work options as jobs permit.
  • 22% are reducing real estate investment (financial services and healthcare industries lead the way with 30% and 29%, respectively, saying real estate buys are cooling off).

“While companies continue to invest in many areas of the business, they’re scaling back the most in real estate and capex ex [capital expenditure]. After two years of remote work, many companies simply need less space, and they’re allocating capital accordingly,” the PwC report noted.

In a somewhat parallel release to PwC’s findings, news sources are reporting reductions in real estate and staff at high-profile Big Tech companies.

Meta Platforms, Inc. in Menlo Park, Calif. (formerly Facebook Inc.), is closing one of its New York offices and cutting back on plans to expand two other locations in the city, the Observer reported.

Business Insider reported, “More than 32,000 tech workers have been laid off in the US till July, including at Big Tech companies like Microsoft and Meta (formerly Facebook), and the worst has not been over yet for the tech sector that has seen massive stock sell-off.”

According to Forbes, “San Francisco-based electronic signature company DocuSign will lay off 9% of its more than 7,400 employees (roughly 670 employees), the company announced in a Securities and Exchange filing Wednesday, saying the cuts are ‘necessary to ensure we are capitalizing on our long-term opportunity and setting up the company for future success.’”

And Bloomberg recently reported that Intel is planning to layoff thousands of people “around the same time as its third-quarter earnings report on Oct. 27.”

Healthcare Providers Plan Layoffs, Seek IT Pros

Meanwhile, major healthcare provider networks also are planning staff cuts amid service closures, rising costs, and other issues, according to Becker’s Hospital Review:

“Our health system, like others around the nation, is facing significant financial pressures from historic inflation, rising pharmaceutical and labor costs, COVID-19, expiration of CARES Act funding, and reimbursement not proportional with expenses,” BHSH said in a statement shared with Becker’s.

Amidst these layoffs, however, IT jobs in healthcare seem to be growing. According to Becker’s Health IT, some healthcare providers have posted information technology openings:

So, though it appears IT positions continue to expand, clinical laboratory leaders and pathology practice managers may want to prepare now for dealing with customers’ response to leaner healthcare systems overall.

Donna Marie Pocius

Related Information:

PwC Pulse: Managing Business Risks in 2022

Layoffs are Being Planned at Half of US Companies, PwC Survey Shows

Business Executives Remain Bullish about Their Ability to Manage Turbulent Conditions, according to New PwC Survey

Meta Is Closing a Manhattan Office as It Consolidates Its New York City Presence

50% of Companies Planning Job Cuts Amid Economic Downturn: Report

Ascension to Close Hospital, Lay Off 133 Workers

Microsoft Reportedly Cuts Nearly 1,000 Employees—Here Are the Biggest US Layoffs This Year

Intel Is Planning Thousands of Job Cuts in Face of PC Slump

Hospitals Cut Jobs to Resuscitate Finances

IT Job Openings at Mayo, Northwell, CommonSpirit, and Providence

Australia’s Severe Flu Season Could be a Harbinger of Increased Influenza Cases in US and Canada Straining Already Burdened Clinical Laboratories

End of social distancing, masking, and other COVID-19 pandemic mitigations may lead to more severe flu-like infections in northern hemisphere, experts say

Clinical laboratory professionals in the United States and Canada should prepare now for a severe flu season. That is according to infectious disease experts at Johns Hopkin’s Center for Health Security who predict the rise in influenza (flu) cases in Australia signals what will likely be higher than normal numbers of flu-like infections starting this fall in the Northern Hemisphere.

As a Southern Hemisphere nation, Australia experiences winter from June through August. The land down under just concluded its worst flu season in five years. The flu arrived earlier than usual and was severe. Surveillance reports from the Aussie government’s Department of Health and Aged Care noted that influenza-like illness (ILI) peaked in May and June, but that starting in mid-April 2022 the weekly number of flu cases exceeded the five-year average.

If the same increase in flu cases happens here, healthcare systems and clinical laboratories already burdened with continuing COVID-19 testing and increasing demand for monkeypox testing could find the strain unbearable.

Amesh Adalja, MD

Amesh Adalja, MD (above), Infectious Disease Expert and Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkin’s Center for Health Security, told Prevention that Australia’s flu season is typically a harbinger of what will follow in the US, Canada, and other Northern Hemisphere countries. “The planet has two hemispheres which have opposite respiratory viral seasons,” he said. “Therefore, Australia’s flu season—which is just ending—is often predictive of what will happen in the Northern Hemisphere.” Clinical laboratories in the United States should review their preparations as North America enters its influenza season. (Photo copyright: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.)

Consequences of Decline in Flu Vaccinations and Social Distancing, Masks

The New York Times noted that in 2017, when Australia suffered through its worst flu season since modern surveillance techniques were adopted, the US experienced a deadly 2017-2018 flu season a half-year later that took an estimated 79,000 lives.

While the number of flu cases in this country is currently low, according to the weekly US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) “Flu View,” that is expected to change as temperatures cool.

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, influenza was nearly nonexistent. Pandemic-mitigation efforts such as masking, social distancing, and quarantining slowed the spread of the annual respiratory illness. But pandemic mitigation efforts are no longer the norm.

“Many have stopped masking,” said Abinash Virk MD, an Infectious Diseases Specialist at Mayo Clinic College of Medicine and Science, in a Mayo Clinic news blog that urged patients to get vaccinated for flu. “For the large part, we will see the re-emergence of influenza in the winter. In comparison, in 2020 winter … there was literally no influenza. But now that has all changed.”

Diminished Immunity Will Lead to More Severe Flu Cases

A CDC report published in July also noted that last winter’s flu season broke from the traditional pattern of arrival of the flu in the fall followed by a peak in cases in February.

During the 2021-22 season, influenza activity began to increase in November and remained elevated until mid-June. It featured two distinct waves, with A(H3N2) viruses predominating for the entire season. But the overall case counts were the lowest in at least 25 years preceding the COVID-19 pandemic.

Thomas Russo, MD, Professor and Chief of Infectious Disease at the University at Buffalo in New York, said the past two mild flu seasons could set the stage for a difficult year in 2022-23.

“Immunity to respiratory viruses, including the flu, wanes over time,” Russo told Prevention. “People have not seen the virus naturally for a couple of years and many individuals don’t get the flu vaccine.” That, he says, raises the risk that people who are unvaccinated against the flu will develop more severe cases if they do happen to get infected.

“People are interacting closely again and there are very few mandates,” he added. “That’s a set-up for increased transmission of influenza and other respiratory viruses.”

Anthony Fauci, MD, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), warns the US could see higher than normal rates of influenza while COVID-19 is still circulating widely.

“The Southern Hemisphere has had a pretty bad flu season, and it came on early,” Fauci, told Bloomberg in late August. “Influenza, as we all have experienced over many years, can be a serious disease, particularly when you have a bad season.”

CNN reported that US government modeling predicts flu will peak this year in early December.

CDC Advises Public to Get Flu Vaccine

Because COVID-19 and Influenza have many symptoms in common, such as fever, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, sore throat, runny nose, headache, and muscle aches, the Mayo Clinic points out on its blog that testing is the only way to discern between the two when symptoms overlap.

According to the CDC, the best way to reduce risk from seasonal flu and its potentially serious complications is to get vaccinated every year. The best time to get vaccinated for the flu is in September and October before the flu starts spreading in communities, the CDC states. However, vaccination after October can still provide protection during the peak of flu season.

Yet, many people fail to get the flu vaccine even though it is recommended for everyone over the age of six months. CNN reported that just 45% of Americans got their flu shots last season. Flu vaccination rates fell for several at-risk groups, including pregnant women and children.

Though flu seasons are often unpredictable, clinical laboratories should prepare now for an influx of influenza test specimens and higher case rates than the past two pandemic-lightened flu seasons. Coupled with COVID-19 and monkeypox testing, already strained supply lines may be disrupted.

—Andrea Downing Peck

Related Information:

Frequently Asked Influenza (Flu) Questions: 2022-2023 Season

Weekly US Influenza Surveillance Report

Australia Just Had a Bad Flu Season. That May Be a Warning for the US

Experts Are Predicting a Bad 2022-2023 Flu Season: How to Prepare Now

Australian Influenza Surveillance Report No 07-Fortnight Ending 03 July 2022

Fauci Warns of a Bad Flu Season Brewing as He Nears Office Exit

Australia’s Tough Flu Season Could Spell Trouble for the US This Winter, Especially with COVID-19 in the Mix

Expect a Different Flu Season: Why You’ll Want to Be Vaccinated for Flu

Influenza Activity and Composition of the 2022–23 Influenza Vaccine—United States, 2021–22 Season

Prevent Seasonal Flu

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