Drug-Resistant Infections Poised to Rise in Europe’s Elderly, Modeling Study Warns
Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine project that bloodstream infections caused by resistant bacteria will spike among adults aged 74 and older by 2030.
For laboratory leaders, new modeling research underscores a mounting challenge in infectious disease surveillance: the rise of drug-resistant bloodstream infections (BSIs) across Europe. According to a study published in PLOS Medicine, the rate of BSIs caused by antimicrobial-resistant bacteria is expected to climb sharply over the next five years—driven largely by an aging population.
A news release from CIRAP explained that researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine analyzed data from more than 12 million blood cultures collected across 29 European countries between 2010 and 2019. Using those findings, they projected BSI rates through 2050 across 38 bacteria–antibiotic combinations, revealing what they called a “clear and consistent relationship” between infection rates, age, and sex. “With substantial sub- and national-variation, the consistency and clear shape of some relationships provide evidence for the inclusion of age and sex in any predictions of future AMR burden,” the authors wrote.
BSI Rates Expected to Increase
The study’s forecasts are sobering. By 2030, BSI rates are expected to increase dramatically among older adults (74 years and up), while stabilizing or even declining among younger groups. Incidence is also predicted to rise faster in men than in women across most bacterial species. Even under optimistic public health scenarios, the team found that achieving a 10% reduction in infections by 2030 would only be feasible for about two-thirds of bacteria–antibiotic pairings.
A press release from EurekAlert! quoted senior study author Gwen Knight, PhD, “Age and sex are still rarely considered in antimicrobial resistance projections, yet they make a real difference to who is most affected.”
Senior study author Gwen Knight, PhD, noted, “Combining these factors with demographic and infection trends really highlighted how challenging it will be to reverse the steady rise in bloodstream infections across Europe.” (Photo credit: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)
For laboratories, the findings highlight the growing importance of targeted surveillance, age-stratified reporting, and real-time resistance data to guide treatment and public health interventions. As Knight and her colleagues conclude, intervention strategies must account for demographic shifts—because the burden of resistance, much like the population it affects, is rapidly aging.
This article was created with the assistance of Generative AI and has undergone editorial review before publishing.
—Janette Wider
